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What makes you think Duncan can stay in front of Odom. I see Odom taking Duncan off the dribble easily.
Spurs are not going to risk Duncan getting in foul trouble guarding Gasol. They will put Thomas and Oberto on him and live with what they get. When those 2 get in foul trouble you will see Duncan check Gasol. The spurs are going to put Duncan on Odom and dare Odom to shoot jumpers ala David West.
What makes you think Duncan can stay in front of Odom. I see Odom taking Duncan off the dribble easily.
The Odom/Gasol frontcourt could be a nightmare for Spurs. I guess Duncan will defend on Gasol and Pop will try a lot of players against Odom.
Oberto and Horry will have the first to have a shot against him but if it didn't work, Pop will go small and put Udoka and maybe even Finley on Odom. I don't think Pop will try Duncan on Odom.
Duncan will have to be really careful about fouls. Between Gasol and stopping penetration, Duncan could be really fast in foul troubles. The problem will be even bigger if Spurs play small and Duncan become the only rim defender on the court.
Odom is a huge key of this series. He is a huge mismatch for LA and if he plays as well as he did against Utah, Spurs will be in deep trouble.
I'm new to this post. I'm ready to contribute. I have to disagree with above paragraph. The Spurs (like every other team) is used to playing a game every other day like the regular season. Also, they had three days off bewteen game 6 and game 7. So playing last night ...won't affect that much for Wednesday's game. The Spurs will be ready for game 1.
Also, I have a lot of respect for Phil Jackson. But in the playoffs...the best team usually wins. (As we just saw last night) The Spurs are the better team than the Lakers and there are some favorable match-ups in this series for SA. Duncan/Gasol, Parker/Fisher
Yes....the Lakers have Kobe Bryant who is terrific. But, The Spurs defense is better gear to contain a wing player.....than a savvy beyond his years point guard(Chris Paul).
Phil may have the coaching egde in this match-up. But Pop knows how to make adjustments during a seven game series pretty well. And after you have 4 championships....you must know what you're doing.
Also, the Intangibles are just as important to winning a championship. The Spurs have the intangibles.....to win a tough series. Don't underestimate the heart of a champion!!!
The Spurs in 6 games.
You beat me to that
Bowen will shut down Kobe and Thomas/Oberto will shut down Gasol.
Who else do they have??
Puhleze!!!
The question is:
Who will shut down Tony Parker?
He's going to come out big for us.
Kobe can't win a le without Shaq. Spurs in 6.
We're not. They suck. Get over it.
You don't watch much basketball, do you? Anybody trying to get close to the rim plays right into Duncan hands, being that he's a shot blocker and what not.
Phil Jackson is a giant .
I've always been wary of bearded men.
I am not. The Hornets series I had every reseason to be mad because before Game 7, Spurs were just unraveling on the road and getting outhustled in those 3rd quarter collapses. As a fan, I couldn't stand to watch that and the constant complaining about the refs the Spurs players were doing.
I actually think the Spurs have a good chance against the Lakers. There's a lot of truth in what I said, no coach knows the Spurs tendencies better the Phil Jackson.
This series is going to come down to which teams role players step up, as LA has a deep bench. Also, Odom has been playing out of his mind lately, so how the Spurs deal with him will also be key. I still think the Lakers lack a little bit of experience, like the Hornets, of playing together in big moments of big games, esp their role players. That may give the edge to the Spurs when they need it.
Lakers are the worst rebounding team left in the playoffs. Spurs one of the best.
It will be interesting to see how SA's interior defense is.
LA scores inside mostly off the creation for one another, not on individual moves. Duncan is going to have to guard an active offensive player no matter who he is on. That focus will take away from his ability to help on defense which nuetralizes the Spurs shotblocking ability.
Duncan can block shots manning up against someone's post moves or protecting the basket as a secondary defender but if he's guarding Odom, he's going to have to be out 10-15 feet away where Odom can drive around him or take the open shot (the latter which Duncan will prefer).
The biggest thing is that LA's big men are such great passers that any double teams on them and the other one is getting layups.
Keys to the series is:
1 - How LA guards Tony Parker early. He's the motor that gets the Spurs going. If Paker can get by Fisher and finish then it sets the table for everything else the Spurs does. Duncan carrying the offensive load early is a bad sign for the Spurs.
2 - How the Spurs adjust from Duncan being unable to just be the helper on D. This primarily is a factor in Bowen on Kobe. Any jumper Kobe takes over Bowen will be tough but Kobe still can get to the basket. Will the help be there for Bowen? Also, the fact that others besides Duncan can't get up to block his shot, will Kobe get the foul calls against Oberto/Thomas. If he gets to the line 10+ times a game, Spurs are in trouble.
3 - Tempo - The Spurs won't dominate the offensive glass like Utah did because the Spurs focus on getting back. However the Spurs aren't nearly as fast as the Lakers. When LA gets the boards - will they be able to beat the Spurs down for easy buckets - biggest will be up front as Odom and Gasol run the floor extremely well, Oberto and Thomas - no so much.
Last edited by 2Cleva; 05-20-2008 at 09:44 AM.
Good take 2Cleva.
Yep. Fish is the one we need to be wary of. He has the experience and also can shoot the Lakers right back in a game they are losing. We also have to contain Odom. Not worried about Pau, cause the Spurs have owned his ass for years. Now if Bruce does his normal job on Kobe, making him take a lot of tough shots, we should be OK.
And Cheap Shot Rob maybe just needs to send Sasha to the showers.
Duncan is not going further than 3 feet away from the paint. Period. If Lamar catches the ball anywhere from 5+ feet from the paint, he'll have to decide wether to shoot, or meet Tim at the rim. If Odom is shooting well from the outside, then Udoka will get the assignment, and Tim will move to Gasol. Listen, our entire defense hinges on Duncan being in the paint. We're not changing now.
Its not the one-on-one play that favors LA, its the mobility, athleticsm and passing ability.
Every Laker except Fisher and Gasol when guarded by Duncan should be able to get by his man and get a good look or force the Spurs to help. LA knows how to attack those gaps when their man turns his head and get easy buckets. Duncan unable to play free safety is huge.
The Spurs traditionally jam the Laker's tri. I can see Odom bringing the ball up more to counter that early. LA now has a great P&R game with Kobe/Gasol in case the tri isn't working late - much better than Kobe iso against Bowen in years before.
Key for the Spurs is to make every game into a grind. That way when the Spurs go on scoring droughts, LA can't run away from them. If I'm Popovich, I don't want a shot taken unless there is 8 seconds or less on the clock. LA isn't as uptempo as the Suns but they even had the Jazz - a very disciplined team, shooting shots earlier in the offense than Sloan wanted.
Odom scares me because of the matchup problem he presents. We all know Kobe is going to get is 30+. However, how many shots is he gonna take to get those 30.
That defense works because Duncan traditionally guards the worse offensive threat on the floor. I recall games where Duncan is guarding SGs because it allowed him to help.
If Odom is getting open looks from 5-8 feet, he's going to kill the Spurs.
And Duncan does go out and contest shots once someone hits one or two on him. Last game, Turiaf was able to bring Duncan from the basket after he hit a couple of Js.
Whats worse for SA, LA takes there chances with Odom going at Duncan if Duncan lays off of him waiting for the shotblock. Duncan will get his share of blocks but also get his share of fouls
Last comment (for now):
For LA to win it goes down to Kobe's shot attempts as well as how many 3s LA takes.
1 - As long as Kobe isn't forced nor forces himself to finish with more than 25 FGA (ideally closer to 20) LA is in good shape. Whether its Kobe trying to do too much or his teammates not stepping up because of the pressure, LA is at a disadvantage unless the ball is moving and others are getting involved.
2 - LA has to take less than 20 3s. Its been clear since they got Gasol, teams that force them to take 3s give them trouble because its like crack for the Lakers. The Spurs ability to close out on 3 pointers may be a disadvantage - if I'm an opposing team I want them to fall in love with the 3.
Anytime Kobe has more than 25 shots or the team takes more than 20 3s - they are playing with fire and the Spurs will burn them for it.
I can see Odom as an X-factor, but when did he all of a sudden become a stud?
Yes, he rebounded well in the Utah series, but he only scored over 20 in two of the six games. The man did average over 15PPG in the regular season, so outside of those two games he is not scoring at a particularly impressive rate. Against Denver he did not score well at all, despite averaging 40MPG for three of the four games in the series.
Additionally, he average 43MPG against the Jazz, up 5 minutes from his regular season average. That does account for some of the scoring and rebounding increases. Since he has yet to play a traditionally inside-out team this post-season, yet has still racked up the fouls (fouled out once, 5 twice and 4 twice), his minutes may be limited by having to play more interior defense.
Definitely a wild card or X-factor of whatever it is you want to label him, but I doubt that Pop is going to plan for a go-left only player with a reputation for playing much softer than his size.
I really don't think that you truly have to worry about the Lakers going completely nuts from 3 point range.
Kobe throwing up 25+ shots on the other hand........
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