Duncan v.s Gasol
Gasol is the softest defender Duncan has matched up with yet. Even Shaq defends better than Gasol. But Gasol is a better shooter than Shaq, so he has to be defended on the other end. But I expect Oberto, Horry, Thomas, and Duncan to all take times defending on Gasol. EDGE: Spurs
Bryant v.s Manu
Possibly two of the most clutch players in the game today. I think they both will have their flashes of brilliance in this series. Bowen always defends Kobe well, and will probably have at least one game where he outscores Bryant, since that happens pretty routinely. But Bryant is going to get his points. The key here is that the Lakers have no one who can guard Manu. But it still has to be EDGE: Lakers
Parker v.s Derek Fisher
Easily Parker. Fisher will have some deadly 3's, but he can't guard Parker. He can't even keep up with him. EDGE: Parker
Thomas/Oberto v.s. Radmonovic (sp?)
Two players who represent the very different styles of teams - Thomas and Oberto are bangers who will do a good job on either Radmonivic or Gasol, but who don't have the jump shooting ability that he has. But I still give the EDGE: Spurs because I expect quite a few post ups for both Spurs Cs.
Bowen v.s. Odom
Odom is really the Lakers X-factor if they have a chance to win at all, but he has a history of disappearing the more the pressure increases. The Spurs don't really have anyone who can defend him, but much as in the series against the Hornets and the Suns, they have to be OK with this and focus on keeping the Lakers from getting into an offensive rhythm and getting other guys involved. EDGE: Lakers
Bench:
I'd put my money on Finley, Horry, Barry, and Udoka over Sasha and...well, that's exactly the problem. The Lakers don't have much of a bench. EDGE: SPURS
Coaching: EVEN. Both coaches have strengths and the hardware to back them up, but very different styles.
I expect the Spurs to win in 6.
Lakers dont have much of a bench?? they have the deepest most talented bench right now. yes the spurs have the more experienced bench but the Lakers bench will be no pushover.
dont forget about Trevor Ariza. hes a good defender. long arms and tall for a SG/SF. he could be guarding parker of Ginobili. wont surprise me if he starts.
We got Tim Duncan and they don't. That's all there is to say. Everyone else balances out.
Spurs in 6
bowen will guard kobe along with ime
For the Spurs' starters on D:
Duncan on Gasol and Odom
Oberto on Odom and Gasol
Bowen on Bryant
Ginobili on Radmanovic
Parker on Fisher
The oddsmakers have the Lakers favored to win the series.
People do not understand that when Duncan is healthy, he is the best player in the NBA period. The second best player is Lebron James.
Kobe is overrated. The Spurs have just as good a supporting cast as the Lakers.
Spurs in 5 or 6.
Spurs playoff record since 2003:
series 16 wins, 2 losses
games 69 wins, 33 losses
Spurs in conference finals & NBA finals since 2003
series 6 wins, 0 losses
games 24 wins, 9 losses
Turiaf is a beast and he and Gasol blocked Timmy several times on our last game against them... i look forward to see what happens in this series...
farmar sucked against jazz
I want to see what Udoka can do on Odom. Odom really hasn't been known to be an overly physical guy, and Udoka is as physical as they come, I think Udoka can throw Odom off his rhythm and render him a non factor.
Thomas could defend Gasol reasonably well given his smarts and decent quickness, but in crunch time, Duncan on Gasol all the way.
Fisher can defend Parker well because he is smart.
Bowen on Bryant is a no brainer.
The key for the Spurs is to shut down the perimeter with the Lakers. The Lakers will still score quite a few in the paint with their interior passing.
On offense, no 4-down please, I am not sure why Pop went back to 4-down in the 2nd half of Game 7 and just watch the whole offense crumble. Run motion offense, Oberto is a great interior passer, use that.
I don't see Kobe as overrated. I haven't see "THE Ratings" but I think he's incredible.
Oh I think we got someone that may give you a bit of a challenge...
I wouldn't be surprised to see Kobe guarding Manu at some point. I think Kobe would want that challenge. The Lakers will be tough. As much as I don't want to give the Lakers bench any credit, I'll admit I am probably underrating them.
The Spurs need to have appropriate fear of the Lakers.
Kobe is NOT overrated. I don't understand how anyone could come to that conclusion. Is he arrogant? Yes. Is he an ass? Yes. Can you find a million bad things to say about him? Yes. But overrated is not one of them. He deserved the MVP this year.
The Lakers are the #1 seed in a tough Western Conference. The Lakers, like us, dealt with injuries this year and found a way to win. And I think Kobe was the main reason for that.
What kind of breakdown is the OP?
Parker vs Fisher - This is matchup the Spurs have to win big. Parker is the engine that gets SA's offense going, while Fisher is the steady force for the Lakers that stretches the D. Fisher has played well on defense this playoffs against Iverson and Deron Williams but Parkers relentlessness in getting to the basket is something else. SA likely will iso Parker on Fisher because the PnR brings defensive help that Parker doesn't need. How many games Fisher stays in front of Parker early determines who wins this series. On the flip side, Fisher will burn Parker whenever he helps, and his lack of size doesn't stop Fisher from taking the 3. Also, Fisher's reputation and experience helps.
Advantage - Spurs (but how big of an advantage is key - Parker has to dominate for the Spurs to win - 25+ppg).
Kobe vs Bowen - Advantage is obvious but a key is how physical the refs allow Bowen to be on the MVP. Rep vs rep. Bowen has to keep Kobe outside while still challenging his J. Whenever Kobe gets by him, SA's entire defense is compromised because of Kobe's finishing and passing ability. On the flip side, Bowen has to make Kobe pay from 3 for gambling off of him, otherwise Kobe will disrupt Parker and Duncan.
Advantage: Lakers - with Kobe's FG% being the key. Kobe needs to shoot 45%+ for LA to be successful. If he's over 50%, this series is a wrap.
Ginobili vs Radmanovic - I doubt Pop brings Manu off the bench considering the rythym SA is in. Easy advantage for Manu against Rad - who only will play 20 minutes tops. If Rad scores 8+ in any game, its a bad sign for the Spurs. Manu has to be a big-time scorer - he shot very poorly vs LA this season - mainly because of the length that LA guards him with. How Manu does against Walton and Ariza will be more important. Can he get by Ariza? Can he defend Walton in the post?
Advantage - Spurs.
Oberto/Thomas vs Odom - Neither guy has the footspeed to stay with Odom nor the quickness to keep him off the glass. I doubt either gets much playing time and Duncan won't play him (see later). Just like the Manu matchup, the Odom one will be determined on how he does against other role players, but Odom has finally learned how to play without the ball and is making a killing slashing to the basket off the moves of Kobe and Gasol.
Advantage - Lakers. Odom's head can be taken out of the game by no-calls. How he keeps it is key.
Duncan vs Gasol - The two guys will go one-on-one most of the game. Pop uses Duncan to guard Gasol because Duncan will be closer to the basket and he's less likely to pick up fouls defending a post player where the refs let things go, than someone attacking the basket off the dribble. Both guys have trouble with double-teams once they put the ball on the floor (LA will do this constantly in the 4th agains Duncan) but it will be mostly one-on-one because both teams will be concerned about the 3-point shooters. Duncan needs to go off but he needs Parker especially to get his first. LA runs a lot of cuts off Gasol in the post - we'll see if SA is ready for it. LA is an amazing 30-6 when Gasol plays more than 3 minutes.
Advantage - Spurs. LA needs Gasol to hang tough. Either big gets in foul trouble and that team is going to lose.
Coaching - Phil vs Pop. Both HOF coaches. Not much needs to be said - both know each other very well.
Advantage - Lakers.- Gotta point to scoreboard and rings - 14-7 and 9-4 in favor of Phil.
Bench - If Ginobili continues to start, this will be a big factor. The 3 point shooting from each squad is obvious (Finley, Vujacic, Horry, Walton, Barry, Farmar) but the intangibles will win it. I expect Horry and Barry to do it for SA, Turiaf and Walton for the Lakers. Horry and Turiaf inside on D off the bench will determine many of 2nd quarters, as will Barry being the real backup PG for the Spurs. Walton will go inside more because Ginobili is too light to guard him in the post. Wild cards are Udoka and Ariza. If healthy, Ariza athleticism will be seen often against Tony Parker to keep him out of the paint. SA will also need Udoka the same way guarding Kobe and Odom.
Advantage - Lakers - I give it to LA just because of the speed they have over the Spurs bench. The Spurs bench is full of heady players who can gum up the tri but they won't be able to keep up with the Lakers bench when thery run.
Intaginbles - Defending champs vs MVP and Co. Spurs will obviously be the most poised team in this series but the Lakers have the most momentum. If I'm the Spurs, I hate the schedule, and it starts off bad with the airplane issue. Both teams are fully capable of winning on the opponents home court so HCA isn't an issue. We all know Kobe will be on a mission though. Can he do what LeBron couldn't last year? Do the Spurs have enough gas in the tank?
Advantage - Spurs. - You gotta beat the King to be the King.
I think both teams split the first 4 games with LA winning in 6.
Last edited by 2Cleva; 05-20-2008 at 01:24 PM.
Did you just say Bowen will outscore Bryant ? No way -- no way in will Bowen outscore Bryant in any game for this series.
This series will be simple -- If the Lakers elect to play Duncan straight up then he has to dominate - if the double which I am sure they will and they will do it with Odom - then the Spurs have to hit shots.
Spurs have Duncan but the Lakers have the alleged rapist Kobe - best player on Planet Earth - Bowen cannot guard Kobe and he will need help so the Lakers will have to hit shots too. This series will be determined by the bench. Will Horry, Bones, Udoke and FInley hit shots or will Sasha, Walton and Farmar hit shots?
On a side note - - it will be interesting to see who the officials of the first game will be....I was surprised -- very surprised to see Joey Crawford assigned to the Celtics tonight. I thougth for sure he would be on a plane to California.
You think?Oh I think we got someone that may give you a bit of a challenge...
Kobe is a great player. But there is too much hype around him, so he became overrated.
Using that magic formula, there is too much hype about Tiger Woods...therefore we postulate that Tiger is overrated, right?
you do realize some of bowen's big o games are against the lakers
Let's hope Bruce brings it and does a good job on Kobe.
you have to make kobe shot a bad % and lots of shots
I agree with most of this. Though I think at this point, I might call the coaching a draw, and no advantage to either side with the bench at this point - that's to be seen.
And obviously, I pick Spurs in 6, instead of LA.
It reads poorly, but I think the OP was comparing Manu to Bryant and referred to Manu's scoring, not Bowen's. The pronoun usage and mention of Bowen guarding Bryant in relation to the comparison of Manu to Kobe confuses the issue.
Tiger is great, but he is no Jack Nicklaus.
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=91862
The four teams remaining are all powerhouse teams. This is the best playoffs matchup in years and years. Just looking at the stats alone, the Spurs are the worst of the 4 remaining teams.
Real stories are forged on hardwood but written, after the fact, on paper.
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