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  1. #1
    Forum Official Personal Life Coach BacktoBasics's Avatar
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    Alright we hear the ing day in and day out with no end but ultimately who can and can't sustain 7 dollar gas prices? What businesses, industries or hobbies will fail to stay afloat when we peak? We've managed to survive 4 dollar gas without too much change. Most recreational industries which were said to be hit the hardest have only slowed moderately. Luxury items are maintaining even if at a higher margin. I've come into contact with quite a few truckers that have sold out because they feel anything over 5 dollars a gallon is counter productive, I still haven't seen real shipping fallout beyond premature panic. Shipping charges in the RV world are only up a few hundred dollars from 2 years ago. Can small businesses hold off the fire sale?

    So give me a list of who can't make it. Who has to close their doors because its too damn much?

  2. #2
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    It depends on pricing power.

    It also depends on whose margins are thinnest, and who is most exposed to rising energy prices.

    One obvious answer is trucking will take a hit.

    Say you make something for $8 bucks.
    You sell to a customer who has two options for your product. One costs $10 and is made right next door to him. The other is your product, that costs $8 plus $1 for shipping.
    That customer, all other things equal, will choose your product as long as your cost is below the local option.
    Triple the shipping costs, and that customer will now have to choose between your product at $8 plus $3 shipping for $11 total, and the local option of $10.

    This means fewer non-local sales for you, and less demand from you for shipping.

    Rail is waaay more fuel efficient than trucking, so rail will take up a good chunk of slack from trucking.

  3. #3
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Retail will be hit pretty hard as well.

    Given limited budgets, and rising fuel prices, a consumer must choose between getting to work, and buying that optional item.

    Goods have gotten cheaper than they were 20 years ago, and this has led to an explosion of retail square footage per consumer.

    Given that retail employs a LOT of people, this could have a nasty spiraling effect, if stores start closing.

    On the other hand, manufacturing will make something of a comeback.

    Given that shipping something halfway around the world is more and more expensive, local manufacturers will be more and more cost compe ive. Goods will be made closer to where they are ultimately consumed.

  4. #4
    I Got Hops Extra Stout's Avatar
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    Independent trucking is already toast. Several airlines have already closed shop and most of the others are cutting back sharply.

    The alternative to trucking is rail. The trade-off is flexibility. The just-in-time business model will die a quick death and we'll go back to the old inventory model.

    Here the U.S. actually has a huge advantage over Europe because our rail system is geared heavily towards cargo whereas theirs is geared towards passenger travel. However, you will start to see investment in more double rail lines to improve the flexibility of those networks to allow more passenger travel.

    Mobility by air will decrease but not disappear. Cheap travel to medium-sized cities far away will decline or disappear.

    Luxury retail will survive because the wealthy are not constrained on disposable income. The mass consumer market will slow as we're already seeing. The freewheeling days of consumerism are coming to a close.

    The IEA has admitted that we are already at or past Peak Oil.

    Invest in solar. Now. Grid price equity is only a few years away. The technogeeks have found a way to make solar cells without silicon.

  5. #5
    Live by what you Speak. DarkReign's Avatar
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    Invest in solar. Now. Grid price equity is only a few years away. The technogeeks have found a way to make solar cells without silicon.
    Please expand.

  6. #6
    "Have to check the film" PixelPusher's Avatar
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  7. #7
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Carbon Polymer offers another intriguing possibility.

    There is some research into this because it is VERY cheap on a per meter basis, even though the electricity generating potential is lower than silicon.

    Whether electricity producing organic sheets are ultimately commercially feasible remains to be seen, but they are still in the very beginnings of research into this. As the price of electricity climbs, so will the amount of $$$ thrown into research of organic photovoltaics.
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 05-22-2008 at 02:10 PM.

  8. #8
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    For what it is worth:

    Nano Solar cells require copper, a metal whose price has skyrocketed recently.

    Silicon prices have been bottlenecked not because silicon is hard to find/mine, but because it is hard/energy intensive to get into a pure form.

    Given increased demand I am fairly sure it is easier to ramp up silicon production than copper production.

    Either way, solar is a great place to park long-term cash.

  9. #9
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Remember further that "solar" includes both thermal generation (focusing sunlight on a water filled tank to generate steam and drive a conventional turbine), and photovoltaic (direct production of electricity from sheets of silicon).

    There will be great strides in energy efficiency in the coming decades. Notice this is not "I think there will be", but rather "There will be". Simple economics of more expensive energy will make such efficiencies as certain as the profit motive. I am as certain of this as I am of anything.

    Example:

    Steel mill must melt iron to make steel. Where does the excess heat go: Usually into the atmosphere.

    Why not stick a boiler to make steam and electricity to capture even more of the energy from the fuels burned to melt that steel?

    Same thing goes for companies that make bricks and have 2000 degree ovens to fire them.

    Answer:
    State protection of local utility monopolies.

    Large manufacturers will end up competing with utilities by using the excess heat used in their processes to generate electricity.

    There is a LOT of room for the US to become more energy efficient. I think the next couple of decades will see some pretty amazing things on this front.

  10. #10
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    'Recycling' Energy Seen Saving Companies Money
    by David Schaper

    Morning Edition, May 22, 2008 · A Chicago-based entrepreneur says many industrial power users can save money, get more electricity, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using the energy they already consume more efficiently. It's called recycling energy — capturing waste heat and turning it into power.
    Click here to get to web page where you can listen to the full story.

  11. #11
    I Got Hops Extra Stout's Avatar
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    'Recycling' Energy Seen Saving Companies Money
    by David Schaper



    Click here to get to web page where you can listen to the full story.
    Yes, and I'm sure that entrepreneur is selling a consulting program to tell management about basic efficiency principles that plant/facility engineers already designed into the process 25 years ago.

  12. #12
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Yes, and I'm sure that entrepreneur is selling a consulting program to tell management about basic efficiency principles that plant/facility engineers already designed into the process 25 years ago.
    Nope.

    This guys is talking about doing the electricity generation from various industrial processes that generate a lot of waste heat, like the steel mill or the brick firing oven.

    Think of it as "energy recycling".

    Large office buildings generate large amounts of heat. Using a series of heat pumps it is possible to capture that heat, concentrate it, and use it to generate electricity.

    The concept is similar to how hybrid cars work.

    You spend energy, usually from gasoline, to get a car moving. When you hit the brakes, the brakes in a hybrid recapture a chunk of that original energy. Once that chunk is recaptured, it can be used to get the car moving again. You can't recapture 100% of the energy, but you can recapture enough to make a significant difference.

    A large building uses electricity to run copiers, lights, computers, etc. This heat must be dissapated somehow. Your airconditioning units are essentially heat pumps that suck heat out of the building and discharge it into the atmosphere in the condensing units outside.

    If you replace that condensing unit with a generator, you can recapture some heat/energy.

    This is especially true in hot climates like texas, where you are attempting to get the building interior to a lower temperature than outside ambient air.

  13. #13
    Retired Ray xrayzebra's Avatar
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    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...2/ccoil122.xml

    Read the story. Link above.

    Oil's perfect storm may blow over

    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 9:44am BST 23/05/2008

    Have your say Read comments

    The perfect storm that has swept oil prices to $132 a barrel may subside over the coming months as rising crude supply from unexpected corners of the world finally comes on stream, just as the global economic downturn begins to bite.

    The forces behind the meteoric price rise this spring are slowly receding. Nigeria has boosted output by 200,000 barrels a day (BPD) this month, making up most of the shortfall caused by rebel attacks on pipelines in April.
    Why oil could soon come barrelling down
    Keep the motors running: increased oil production from countries such as Brazil, Sudan and Azerbaijan is helping satisfy rising global demand for the fossil fuel

    The Geneva consultancy PetroLogistics says Iraq has added 300,000 bpd to a total of 2.57m as security is beefed up in the northern Kirkuk region.

    "There is a strong rebound in supply," said the group's president Conrad Gerber.

    Saudi Arabia is adding 300,000 bpd to the market in response to a personal plea from President George Bush, and to placate angry Democrats on Capitol Hill - even though Riyadh insists that there are abundant supplies for sale.

    Non-OPEC oil production growth

    Like the rest of Opec, the Saudis blame "speculators" for running amok, pushing paper contracts into the stratosphere.

    The ever-diminishing reserves of oil in the earth's crust will doubtless drive crude prices to much higher levels over time - provided no new technology such as nuclear fusion abruptly changes the picture - but that will not stop cyclical ups and downs along the way.

    The world's finely balanced market for crude has been creeping into surplus for several weeks. Opec's monthly report says that demand this quarter will average 85.75m bpd. Supply was 86.8m bpd in April. The fresh output from Nigeria, Iraq and Saudi Arabia may push it significantly further into surplus.

    The signs are already surfacing in global inventories. Opec says that stocks held by the OECD club of rich countries are above their five-year average, with "comfortable" cover for 53 days' use. US stocks have edged up for the last four months, though they fell last week.
    advertisement
    # Oil surge may trigger truly open skies
    # Read more Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

    While it is widely reported that output from the non-Opec trio of Norway, Britain, and Mexico has relentlessly fallen, it is less well known that a clutch of other countries are gradually filling the breach.

    The US Energy Information Agency says non-Opec supply will edge up by 600,000 bpd over coming months as Brazil, Azerbaijan and the Sudan raise production. By next year, the US itself will be producing enough extra oil to shave its import needs.

    OPEC surplus crude oil production

    None of this has been enough to curb the buying frenzy this spring. Goldman Sachs has warned that prices could reach $200 in a final e, and even the bears at Lehman Brothers say there may be enough momentum to keep the boom going until Christmas.

    It is unclear whether hedge funds and investors piling into futures contracts have now become the driving force in a speculative bubble. The Bank of England said yesterday that they were not a factor.

    Lehman's latest report - Is it a Bubble? - says commodity index funds have exploded from $70bn (£36bn) to $235bn since early 2006. This includes $90bn of fresh money. Energy takes the lion's share. Every $100m flow of investment money into oil lifts crude prices by 1.6pc, it said.

    "We see many of the ingredients for a classic asset bubble," said Edward Morse, Lehman's oil expert.

    This week has seen a dramatic surge in oil contracts dated as far forward as 2016. Futures have moved higher than the spot price, a rare event known as "contango". This can cut both ways: either as a sign of an impending supply crunch years hence; or that the futures market has become unhinged from reality.

    What we know is that the International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for world growth for 2008 three times since last autumn to 3.7pc, and the United Nations is predicting just 1.8pc - technically, a global recession. The major oil forecasters have halved their estimates for crude demand growth to 1.2m bpd.

    The bulls say that the US housing crash and spreading contagion in Britain, Spain and Japan do not matter much for oil in the changed world of rising Asia.

    The US added just 7pc of crude demand growth from 2004 to 2007, compared with 34pc for China, 25pc for the Middle East and 17pc for emerging Asia.

    Goldman Sachs argues that fuel prices in most of these countries are held down by state controls, insulating demand from the effect of any global downturn.

    But this could change. Egypt - the most populous Arab country - has just raised petrol prices by 40pc. Rumours swept China yesterday that Beijing was preparing to lift fuel prices. While the Chinese government is unlikely to risk protests in the lead up to the Olympics, the jitters are a reminder that Asian states will have to take action sooner or later to wean their societies from subsidies.
    # Warning over volatile oil prices
    # Saudi-US oil axis is key

    Almost all emerging nations have to slam on the brakes in coming months to curb inflation before it starts spiralling out of control. Inflation has hit 30pc in Ukraine, 22pc in Vietnam, 8.5pc in China, and double digits across most of the Gulf.

    The countries that account for the most of the growth in oil demand over the last two years are almost all nearing the limits of easy economic growth. Read

    Keep up with all the latest sector news on our dedicated webpage

    Have your say

    Information appearing on telegraph.co.uk is the copyright of Telegraph Media Group Limited and must not be reproduced in any medium without licence. For the full copyright statement see Copyright

    ====================================

    Now I am wondering, if they do go down, how Congress is
    going to spin this into how they caused the price to drop
    with their stupid actions. And there is no need to do any
    drilling of developing our own resources.

  14. #14
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    European industry and citizens adapted to $5+ gas 10-15+ years ago and now $8 gas. Life is good in Europe, arguably better than in USA for many Europeans. Note that Europeans make up very few of legal or illagal immigrants.

    Their govts had the foresight and intelligence and leadership to force down demand for imported oil by taxes to minimize shipping their national wealth overseas.

    The USA is pretty much ed (again) now, burning into thin air many $100Bs on useless, unending wars, and enslaved into shipping many $100Bs to foreign oil suppliers.

    The USA adapted to the '67, '73, '79 oil crises, but without the Euro-style tax on gas/diesel holding the prices high, regressed when the price went low.

    Now the US is ed with millions of low-mileage vehicles and houses located too damn far from workplaces, and no effective public transport, esp in the southern la itudes, and millions of houses and cities where Americans consider life w/o a/c not worth living.

    The US will adjust to the $100+ oil but it will be very painful and slow.

    Badly run, "free market"/unregulated companies like most of the airlines have and will continue to fail. If you think air travel has sucked for passengers since deregulaton, you ain't seen nothing, yet.

    I expect NO effective leadership on the imported oil crisis from federal govt, no matter who gets elected. Individuals and companies will adjust, slowly, painfully.

    $120/tank gasoline, $4 x 30 gal, is already in California. Will surely spread everywhere. The sooner, the better, so people demand will go down.

  15. #15
    What's the Word? Don Quixote's Avatar
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    A good saying, worthy of all acceptance:

    If you don't like where you are ... MOVE!

  16. #16
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    Independent trucking is already toast.
    Now I'm no expert here, but how I understand it is this is true unless some regulations are put in place. Many, if not most independents generally rely on services to get them work. Theses services are charging the customers fuel surcharges and not passing it on to the truckers, and the customers contracting the shipping don't even know that!

    Make the surcharge payable only to the truckers, and the independents can stay compe ive.

    As for the costs... The added costs top the products are minimal. I've seen the math but cannot repeat it. That the weigh or item count shipped, and add the difference if fuel cost for the distance, and it really isn't as great as people assume. Doubling fuel costs do not double the shipping cost. That is just one factor besides insurances, truckers salary, etc.

  17. #17
    "Have to check the film" PixelPusher's Avatar
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    another solar innovation
    IBM solar cell trick brings future of green tech into focus

    By John Timmer | Published: May 22, 2008 - 06:45PM CT

    Last week, IBM announced a new approach to lowering the cost of solar power. Though it's a long way from commercialization, the technique is worth taking a close look at because it exploits some of the technology that IBM has developed for cooling CPUs in order to improve solar cell efficiency. IBM's research in this area also fits within the context of wider industry "green technology" efforts, efforts that are already having a real impact in the datacenter.
    Squeezing more power out of a solar cell

    Photovoltaic technology, which converts light directly into electric current, has been around in one form or another for decades. So far, it has been limited to niche markets for a single reason: photovoltaic cells are expensive because they are generally made via the same high-quality silicon manufacturing processes that produce computer chips. Solar cell makers have tried to overcome this limitation in a variety of way; some look to alternate materials, while others try to boost the efficiency of energy conversion so that a single chip produces more power.

    The new work from IBM is a rather interesting variation on this latter option. Instead of boosting the efficiency of the photovoltaic cell itself, the technique, called concentrator photovoltaics, simply focuses more sunlight onto the chip. With more incoming energy, any photovoltaic, regardless of its efficiency, will produce more power. This technology is already in use commercially, but it's limited by the fact that concentrating too much light will raise the temperature of photovoltaic devices to the point where the equipment starts getting damaged.

    The new IBM construct focuses approximately 230 watts/cm2 onto a photovoltaic cell, which is the equivalent of 2300 times the intensity of unfiltered sunlight. That's enough to raise standard equipment to 1600°C and precipitate a meltdown. But the team involved in this research crafted their solar cell using technology intended to help cool processors, thereby allowing it to efficiently transport heat away from the photovoltaic cell and keeping it at a perfectly functional 85°C.

    IBM uses a liquid metal cooling system based on gallium and indium for efficiently transferring heat away from the photovoltaics an to a standard metal heat sink. The result is a system that can operate at a light intensity that's roughly five times higher than any concentrator photovoltaic system currently in use. The system is a long way from escaping the lab, but it may get a boost if similar cooling systems become mainstream through their use in processors.
    The greening of the data center

    This is hardly the first time that IBM has demonstrated an interest in solar technology; last October, the company announced it had found a way to allow the use of scrap silicon wafers in the manufacturing of photovoltaic devices. Solar is hardly the only "green tech" area that they're looking at, either, as the press release for the new concentrator technology proudly proclaimed IBM's interest in, "energy efficient technology and services, carbon management, advanced water management, intelligent utility networks and intelligent transportation systems."

    This emphasis on sustainable development is becoming widespread within the high-tech community. Google has gone solar at its own facilities while also investing in solar thermal power companies that are aiming for the general grid. A consortium of manufacturers is also working towards producing a climate-saving PC. In short, green is the new color of high-tech.

    It's easy to dismiss these green trends as attempts to capitalize on to a feel-good wave of environmentalism for marketing purposes, and there probably is an element of that in some of these efforts. But they can just as easily be explained as a response to a new economic reality, one in which energy costs continue to rise and become a major contributor to the total cost of ownership of IT equipment.

    That reality makes green technology appealing for both IT users and manufacturers in two ways. First, energy-efficient equipment becomes a necessity, as it allows users to continue to add computing capacity and manufacturers to both sell the new capacity and to replace the old tech with more efficient products. Second, renewable power sources become more appealing for everyone involved as economies of scale drive down their costs relative to fossil fuels. Given this equation, it's no surprise that so many companies are now jumping on the green bandwagon.

  18. #18
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    "If you don't like where you are ... MOVE"

    the old "love or leave it" bull .

    the old "if you aren't with us, you're a terrorist"

    DQ, you're one stupid, naive

    Europe was smarter, starting a long time ago, made sure there was no mirage of "cheap oil".

    The USA was stupid, childish, gutless, leaderless, maintaining the mirage of cheap oil to go forever.

    Guess who's ed and going to suffer the most now? Unlike you to me, I say you are welcome to stay and "love" it.

    Do you have any facts to counter with, or just dubya-style mindless slogans, and Repug slime?Just anything coherent would do.go ahead, make my day, punk

  19. #19
    Forum Official Personal Life Coach BacktoBasics's Avatar
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    "If you don't like where you are ... MOVE"

    the old "love or leave it" bull .

    the old "if you aren't with us, you're a terrorist"

    DQ, you're one stupid, naive

    Europe was smarter, starting a long time ago, made sure there was no mirage of "cheap oil".

    The USA was stupid, childish, gutless, leaderless, maintaining the mirage of cheap oil to go forever.

    Guess who's ed and going to suffer the most now? Unlike you to me, I say you are welcome to stay and "love" it.

    Do you have any facts to counter with, or just dubya-style mindless slogans, and Repug slime?Just anything coherent would do.go ahead, make my day, punk
    1 out of about 12,439 posts you make I completely disagree with you and for the most part I think you're a full blown moron but I agree with this statement above.

  20. #20
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    B2B, go blind-squirrel self.

  21. #21
    Forum Official Personal Life Coach BacktoBasics's Avatar
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    B2B, go blind-squirrel self.
    That didn't make a whole lot of sense. I said I agreed with you....jeez.

  22. #22
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    understandable, dumb s don't got no sense.

    The metaphor (look it up).

    Like a blind squirrel finding a nut, you agree with one of my posts, dumb .

  23. #23
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    Solar-voltaic has the huge disadvantage of supplying energy only during sunlight hours, no large-scale, efficient storage system being available for electrical energy. That's why electrical plants are over-built well beyond average demand, to meet capacity in peak hours.

    Same for wind-, tide- and any electrical energy.

    Solar-thermal has the huge advantage of being able to store the thermal energy in reservoirs for release in non-sunlight hours.

    These "natural" energy sources aren't mutually exclusive, but complementary. We'll need them all.

    We DON'T need or want Dirty Coal, there being no such thing as Clean Coal outside of BigCoal's marketing lies.

  24. #24
    Free Throw Coach Aggie Hoopsfan's Avatar
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    B2B, go blind-squirrel self.
    He said he agreed with you on that post, you dumbass.

    ing spoiled brat...

  25. #25
    What's the Word? Don Quixote's Avatar
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    Well, if you'll permit some blind naive Bush-bot (I guess that's what you think I am) to give you some friendly advice ...

    Leave! Go to Europe, or wherever you think the world is better. You'll be much happier, away from the slimy Repugs and evangelicals. Go to Europe and enjoy the mass transit and $6 bread! And you'll find lots of people who I guess will agree with you about how America is screwed up and all.

    Go! Go, young man! You'll be happy for once.

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