At this point where the SPurs just lost 4-1 to the Lakers I can see where the 2010 plan might be in doubt. It was clear the roster was getting old even before the playoffs started. Many people posted here during the season saying they didn't recall one single game where real spurs basketball was played at all. That was a bad omen it took about a 100 games to realize.
It's a gamble at this point I think. If they are able to get a free agent at the back up PG position who is dependable, scores and runs the offense from here to 2010 and get Ian in the roster then they are in great shape to win in 2009. If the FA sucks then they will probably have to wait until their 2010 plan to win again. Then they can get a class A player to play alongside Duncan. (please note I don't think Splitter is coming)
On the other hand, if they think whatever FA they can get now won't really give them the edge in the West to win in the next 2 years or if that actually happens then they should scrap the 2010 plan now and go nuts.
I'd like to see them keep the 2010 plan.
I'd offer to that Open in SG the full MLE. Delfino, Azubuike , J.R Smith are the guys I 'd try.
I think we can get one of those for a 2 year deal $12M
Warrios have a lot of guys the re-sign, the same with the Raptors. Nuggets are over the cap. I think we have a chance
For 2010-2011, Spurs have only Duncan and Parker under contract. When you add cap holds, they have $37M against the cap.
$65M is a quite reasonable estimation of the 2010-2011 salary cap, it means Spurs will be $28M below the cap.
There are few things that could hurt a little this cap space :
- Mahinmi : If Spurs pick his 4th year option, it will cost about $1M in cap space.
- Splitter : If Spurs don't renounce to his rights, it will cost about $500K in cap space whatever he decides to do (signing in 2008, 2009, 2010 or staying in Europe).
- 2008 first round pick : If Spurs pick his 3rd year option, it will cost $500K against the cap.
- 2010 first round pick : Baring it's still a pick in the 20's, $500K against the cap but Spurs could trade it for a future first round pick like they did in 2003.
So at worst, Spurs will have $25.5M in cap space.
What Spurs could do this summer to hurt this cap space ?
Spurs free agents aren't good and young enough to get more than a 2 years contract.
MLE and trades is the only way to hurt the 2010 plan.
A trade is quite unlikely given Spurs assets.
Even if Spurs give the full MLE, they still will have about $20M in cap space.
Spurs have a few tricks to use to optimize the use of the MLE :
- Overpaying a player on 2 years : if a player wants a $9M/3 years contract, offer him a $8M/2 years contract. He will likely accept it.
- Structure contracts in a way that the 2010/2011 is the year with the lowest salary of the contract.
- Don't hesitate to give a player options on the 4th or 5th year: it will help to lower the salary per year. If the player opt out, it won't be a big deal because Spurs shouldn't be in luxury tax trouble and/or it will be in the post Duncan area.
- If it's a low risk player, don't hesitate to give him a 5 years contract to lower his salary per year.
- If it's a high risk player, try to give him a 3 years contract. If he turns as a bust, Spurs should be able to package him with cash and/or a future first round pick for expiring contracts at the 2010 February deadline.
Spurs should ask themselves this summer :
What is the best player we can get with only a 2 years contract ?
What is the best player we can get with a longer contract ?
If the "more than 2 years contract" player, is significantly better than the "2 years contract" player and can really help Spurs, sign him. Otherwise, sign the player with a 2 years contract.
Bruno, thank you for imparting this insane amount of knowledge!
i think, if the spurs stick to the 2010 plan, they better win at least 2 or 3 championships with whoever they siign or i will be very pissed off.
You got to be kidding me. The 2010 Plan was based on the assumption that the Spurs could compete until then with the current cast. This year proved that was not a viable option. Another assumption is that the FO will be able to sign a big name FA. Lets be realistic, it is unlikely that a D-Wade/Kobe (insert whatever other name you want here) is going to sign with a small market team. You also have to remember that the FO doesn’t have a good track record with wooing high priced FAs. Wouldn’t it be better to surround the big three with some young talent now and make another run before Timmy’s window closes?
Stay the course, Spurs were not that far, and next year, they will still be in the thick of things, 2010 is when you have to strike not now
The F.O should follow this strategy , goddamn, Pop should hire me, I'm good to make the coffee too
They can compete with the current cast and some tweaks, this is better than a realistic assumption, it's more like a fact, there's a difference beteween competing, and dominating, the difference is in the probability to win it all, we all hope for the well-being of our minds, for the latter, so we misjudge what competing is, which is, having a reasonnable shot, and that is what we have, what we'll have, and what we had for most of our previous championships
When you do the best possible things with your cards, you will compete, dominating is involving more that is not necessarily in our power
( I know, i know, it is not "our" , it is the spurs, not me but off, i'm just a fan not a national reporter...)
P.S; Aren't we freaking too much over the lakers ? ( we can freak a little, still...^^) Sure, they're excellent, and next year, they will be even better, but they are not at the level of their Shaq's teams, I mean, finding a solution for 08 lakers team, is easier, i think, that finding one for 00's teams
Last edited by silk; 06-01-2008 at 03:10 AM.
I think if Azubuike or J.R Smith are willing to accept the MLE you got to think hard about scraping the 2010 plan. There is no guarantee the Spurs can land a star player.
The spurs are not L.A or even Dallas, in terms of attracting a "star", but still, we're not the hawks or the Bucks, with Pop and Duncan, I'm sure we can convince a very good player to join
And I'm not sure that kelena or J.R for a full M.L.E is a better option with all said and done
I think there is one addition that would make the Spurs serious contenders for the next couple of seasons. I don't know if he could be pried away from the Nuggets, but it's Marcus Camby. He's got two years left on his contract, which is perfect. And he's costing Denver the same thing as we were paying Thomas.
When you look at what Camby would bring to this team: huge improvement on the boards, which we desperately need. (Plus the second-chance and fast break points that come along with that.) Probably a +3 block per game improvement over this year's roster. A dependable 8-10 points per night, with the added benefit of taking some of the heat off of Duncan. An upgrade to general, overall toughness. And our interior defense would be a cast iron . With the players we already have under contract, we could add a couple of young shooters and have a very scary team.
Spend some money on Vujacic or Delfino, or maybe even Siskauskis. Then trade up a couple of spots (if necessary) to draft Chris Douglas-Roberts, who could actually get minutes as a rookie. If not, then try to pick up both Courtney Lee and Marcellus Kemp, and see which one wants it more. (Kemp has a mid-range game, which we need, and Lee defends his ass off.) All three of those guys can knock down shots. All three of them are mature enough to have a shot at playing right away. And any one of them could be had for a good price. (Then steal J.R. Giddens and send him to the D-league. If he's really grown up, he'll be ripe next year.)
The Nuggets have a huge payroll, and they just made an extension offer to Iverson. I know they have talked about shopping Melo, but is there any chance they could part with Camby? He would be a perfect fit here. And I really think it would put the Spurs on par with any other team in the league for the next two years.
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FYI - If you ask Courtney Lee how he can help an NBA franchise next season, his initial answer might surprise you. “Off the court I believe I have good character, I carry myself well and I don’t have any baggage.”
While most players are quick to point out their shooting prowess or ability to get the ball into the hands of a star player, Lee takes the more unconventional route by discussing his strength of character.
Last edited by GSH; 06-01-2008 at 03:45 AM.
This is what I'm worried about. The offense at times this past year looked absolutely stagnant. Not for a month or two... the entire season. One or two marginal players are not going to change that. Andrew Bynam will be back next season and I'm sure one of the other contending teams will improve.
By the 2010 postseason, Duncan might be somewhat on the decline and Manu might be no more than Finley is now. Adding a big name then might just keep us in the top of the draft for a few more years without a great shot to grab many more rings.
It would suck to go through all this and just have another Jason Kidd fiasco where the star player either goes elsewhere or stays with his team for more money. Even if the Spurs think a player is interested in us now, if we don't win another ring before 2010 who knows if they still will be.
What's the use, people??
There is a conspiracy going on!
You guys are never going to win anything ever again!
I don't know that you necessarily have to scrap it for either player, just use a short deal so they can test the free agency market again in 2010. Like someone else said, this might be in their best interest anyway.
We have to stick with the plan. We just have to be really smart with who we pick up. Gotta find some gems. I'm not entirely sure if RC and Pop are up to the task though...
We'll see.
All good suggestions, but you forgot about Manu. He could easily eat up $4 or $5M of that $25 and then every dollar spent on rookie scale contracts and players who got contracts in 2008....that is, unless the Spurs structure the contracts as you suggest.
I can tell you, however, that the Spurs aren't likely to get Azubuike or JR Smith for short-term deals. Pietrus seems like a prime candidate to receive a 2yr deal below the MLE.
We are now entering the phase of denial. A 2010 plan? Seriously? Tim Duncan will be 34 in that offseason. He will be continuing along the path of slow decline he's already started. So what, we're going to follow the "maybe an All-Star free agent will sign here" pipedream again? Are we that stupid?
There is no "plan." There is only "oh crap, we're screwed, let's throw spaghetti against the wall and see what sticks."
They need to revamp the roster NOW, but they can't. So timvp wishes upon a star and imagines that it's all under control. It's not.
landing camby would be huge, and it would probably even extend duncan's career to get a guy to fill the old d-rob role and let timmy focus on scoring. of all the players proposed ive read about, this option is by far the best!
that said, for the nuggets to trade camby to us, it would have to be a chris wallace level gift, because that would mean they dont care at all about the playoffs.
i just cant think of a good big to put next to tim. i'd rather find a guy to dominate the boards and let tim be the scorer, as before, but maybe its now duncan's turn to restrict his game and let someone else be the scorer.
i know the coaches and most everybody is more concerned about getting perimeter help, but i really think that our frontcourt is barely 3 players deep and our biggest weakness looking at next season.
Maybe we can pry LeBron James away from the Cavs. Maybe he'll accept less money just to dwell in the soothing aura of Tim Duncan. Maybe sending Mike Brown and Danny Ferry to Cleveland was a CIA plot. It makes sense in my dream world!
Having some cap flexibility in 2010 is not be a bad thing. Since many of the forum es seem to think Duncan will be worthless by that point it couldn't hurt to have something more than a MLE to use to go after a solid starter or multiple good players.
What will be a bad thing is if they avoid adding the right talent now so that they can go after a max free agent in 2010. That ship will never reach SA.
As Bruno laid out above, this year's 1st round pick and the 2010 1st rounder won't take up too much cap room, if any. This is one of the easiest ways to pick up a good young player. You can take these contracts on and still have plenty of cap flexibility in 2010. In addition, Mahinmi and Splitter will cost the Spurs relatively little.
There are some young wings available this summer. JR Smith, Delfino, Azubuike, Vujacic, and Barnes. I think you can get one of those for a reasonable contract using the MLE this summer.
Then you have the 2nd round picks this year as well as Sanikidze. For these guys you should be able to structure contracts that make it easy to keep them if they pan out and easy to preserve your flexibility in 2010 if they don't.
Having the cap flexibility to go after a max free agent means little. If a player of that caliber leaves his current team then a sign and trade is more likely (given the cap rules which give the possibility of a bigger contract - 7 v 6 years or whatever) and that opens up the market to those without the cap room but with the talent to send back. I doubt that the Spurs will be able to land a max free agent to join the Spurs and play 3rd fiddle to TD and TP.
where is reggie evans now, isnt he in denver too? it certainly looks like the nuggs have at least one bigman that could help us (camby, evans, najera maybe?)
Evans is in Philly.
I don't forget Manu.
Spurs will have a certain amount of cap space and they can do whatever they want with it.They can decide or not to sign Manu in 2010 and it's not a given that they re-sign him in 2010. Don't forget that Manu will be almost 34 years old for the 2011 playoffs and given his playing-style/durability, he can be far from his current level.
This is the top argument for having cap flexibility in 2010. The Spurs may be looking for a 3rd star then.
The 2010 plan is just as dumb as last time. Worked out well with JKidd and O'Neal, and that was with TD in his prime...
The front office needs to make a push this summer to take the best run it can at the le for the remainder of the Tim Duncan era (which appears to be through 2012 based on his and Pop's deals).
Plan on the cap room coming clean in 2012, not 2010, and do everything you can to win NOW.
oneal and kidd are dumb
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