Draft Prospect: Nicolas Batum

[tav1]

Batum isn't Splitter, because there's no way he gets a "superstar" deal for an amount greatly above the rookie scale. He's not that productive for his team.

Right.

My Board is something like this:

Batum
Lee/Rush/CDR
Speights

Trade out of the first, if not one of the above.

[AFBlue]

You aren't following the draft very closely if you haven't noticed a Euro backlash. This year, if only Gallinari and Batum are picked, that'd be the fewest international selections in a first round since 1997. That's not an accident.

NBA GMs have always been fickle. There hasn't been a good international first round pick since 2004. Couple that with the growing difficulty in getting players out of Europe and those are the reasons why GMs aren't being as risky with international prospects. If Bargnani, Jianlian, Belinelli, Sene, etc. had actually produced early on, Gallinari would be a hotter name and Batum would be a lottery pick. On top of that, there would be other international players that GMs would want to take a flyer on.

This is definitely a down cycle in the NBA's confidence of the international player. But as is always the case, all it'll take is the next Nowitzki or Gasol or Parker to be selected in the first round and then GMs will once again be all over the international market.

"Down Cycle" is a relative term. The International market was GROSSLY overvalued based on the success of a few in the early decade, so you coincidentally had Darko over Melo and cases like that.

Now that there have been a few busts (just as there are on the US side... o Kwame!), it forces the GMs to take a harder look at the player.

Bottom Line: For a while, the notion was that they were teaching players basketball fundamentals in Europe and that their players were just more talented. Turns out that was mostly just hype.

I agree with Body that it's done on a case-by-case basis.

[AFBlue]

Oh and timvp, I wouldn't necessarily count out guys like Ibaka, Tomic or Ajinca. Could be the fewest since '97...could being the operative word.

[SenorSpur]

You aren't following the draft very closely if you haven't noticed a Euro backlash. This year, if only Gallinari and Batum are picked, that'd be the fewest international selections in a first round since 1997. That's not an accident.

NBA GMs have always been fickle. There hasn't been a good international first round pick since 2004. Couple that with the growing difficulty in getting players out of Europe and those are the reasons why GMs aren't being as risky with international prospects. If Bargnani, Jianlian, Belinelli, Sene, etc. had actually produced early on, Gallinari would be a hotter name and Batum would be a lottery pick. On top of that, there would be other international players that GMs would want to take a flyer on.

This is definitely a down cycle in the NBA's confidence of the international player. But as is always the case, all it'll take is the next Nowitzki or Gasol or Parker to be selected in the first round and then GMs will once again be all over the international market.

This Splitter thing stinks of the highest order. It's what I've said all along - never put all your talent acquisition eggs into the same basket. As a result the Spurs only have Ian to show for last 6 drafts.

If RC and Pop are smart, they, too, will rethink their "all-Euro, all-the-time" draft strategy.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

I agree PHAT TONY, Ibaka and Ajinca are two to look out for.

[timvp]

"Down Cycle" is a relative term. The International market was GROSSLY overvalued based on the success of a few in the early decade, so you coincidentally had Darko over Melo and cases like that.

Now that there have been a few busts (just as there are on the US side... o Kwame!), it forces the GMs to take a harder look at the player.

Bottom Line: For a while, the notion was that they were teaching players basketball fundamentals in Europe and that their players were just more talented. Turns out that was mostly just hype.

I agree with Body that it's done on a case-by-case basis.

I don't see where you are disagreeing with what I said. As you said, for a while NBA teams were hyping (overhyping in most cases) international players. Now that hyping has simmered down. That change in evaluation is what I'm talking about.

A lot of Euro scouts claim Gallinari is an even better prospect than Bargnani was at the same age. But now you don't hear near as much hype surrounding Gallinari ... due to teams actually doing more scouting and looking closer instead of just thinking and hoping he's going to be Dirk Jr. just because he's from Europe.

[AFBlue]

I don't see where you are disagreeing with what I said. As you said, for a while NBA teams were hyping (overhyping in most cases) international players. Now that hyping has simmered down. That change in evaluation is what I'm talking about.

A lot of Euro scouts claim Gallinari is an even better prospect than Bargnani was at the same age. But now you don't hear near as much hype surrounding Gallinari ... due to teams actually doing more scouting and looking closer instead of just thinking and hoping he's going to be Dirk Jr. just because he's from Europe.

See where you're going with it....but he's still going to be a top 10 (maybe top 5) pick. I think Ricky Rubio will get the hype because he may be as good as Derrick Rose.

Guess it just sounded like you were saying that being and International player actually de-valued their stock. I think more in line with Body that now it's a case by case basis.

Could be arguing semantics....

[Mr. Body]

You aren't following the draft very closely if you haven't noticed a Euro backlash. This year, if only Gallinari and Batum are picked, that'd be the fewest international selections in a first round since 1997. That's not an accident.

NBA GMs have always been fickle. There hasn't been a good international first round pick since 2004. Couple that with the growing difficulty in getting players out of Europe and those are the reasons why GMs aren't being as risky with international prospects. If Bargnani, Jianlian, Belinelli, Sene, etc. had actually produced early on, Gallinari would be a hotter name and Batum would be a lottery pick. On top of that, there would be other international players that GMs would want to take a flyer on.

This is definitely a down cycle in the NBA's confidence of the international player. But as is always the case, all it'll take is the next Nowitzki or Gasol or Parker to be selected in the first round and then GMs will once again be all over the international market.

If there was a point where unrealistic expectations for foreigners busted it was the drafting of Fran Vasquez by Orlando, some years gone by now. Otherwise there has been no great change in expectations. It's widely seen that the current generation of Euro-talents has been tapped out, hence a lack of top prospects; meanwhile the ground is shifting in Europe and remaining there is more lucrative and perhaps more compe ive. None of this indicates a tremendous loss of confidence.

Bargnani wasn't a great player, but Kwame Brown was also drafted #1 and Olowakandi, too. This is all strictly a case-by-case basis. If there were more decent international players, they'd be fighting for first round spots, too. Or are you saying Nathan Jawai would be a lottery pick two years ago? I think not. Instead you have Ibaka and Ajinca as potential late first rounders for no other reason than potential. They may have the same potential as Javale McGee (who will slide) or Speights, they may not. Perhaps Saer-Sene doesn't get picked way up the board or Korolev way up the board nowadays, but that remains to be seen. We can only judge by the players available and where they're sticking. The fact remains players of all stripes - domestic and foreign - get overrated and underrated in much the same way. GMs do not look at players in universal terms. They often get things wrong (who wouldn't?) but not for those reasons.

Case in point this year. Batum, if he falls to the Spurs, will likely have been underrated. Gallinari, as he's somewhere in the top 8, is overrated. But so too were Corey Brewer and Joakim Noah last year and Patrick O'Bryant before that. Case-by-case.

[Mr. Body]

See where you're going with it....but he's still going to be a top 10 (maybe top 5) pick. I think Ricky Rubio will get the hype because he may be as good as Derrick Rose.

Guess it just sounded like you were saying that being and International player actually de-valued their stock. I think more in line with Body that now it's a case by case basis.

Could be arguing semantics....

I think we're all saying the same thing, just putting emphasis on different places. I doubt teams will discount players exclusively because they are foreign - and I am saying teams will continue to overrate certain foreign prospects, same as any player. Now, however, the money situation will alter the landscape in certain cir stances. The Splitter situation may send shockwaves through future late first rounds.

[spursfan98]

Batum isn't Splitter, because there's no way he gets a "superstar" deal for an amount greatly above the rookie scale. He's not that productive for his team.

then we shouldnt draft him

[A.H 21-50]

then we shouldnt draft him

Seems like you had never watch batum playing ?
it's because he's a foreigner or something else you don't like him

the guy looks good , he will be in nba next year and will not drop to no.26 pick

[spursfan98]

Seems like you had never watch batum playing ?
it's because he's a foreigner or something else you don't like him

the guy looks good , he will be in nba next year and will not drop to no.26 pick

he's not bad i would just rather us pick cdr, rush, or mario

[Mr. Body]

Batum would be a first rate pick. He'd easily be twice as athletic as anyone on the team, exception Mahinmi. He'd be a work to chisel, but has so many tools already, plus what seems to be a great at ude.

Pick him above anybody if he's still there.

[spursfan98]

we need someone to contribute right away

[AFBlue]

then we shouldnt draft him

That Parker kid wasn't much at 19 either....maybe the Spurs shouldn't have drafted him.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

we need someone to contribute right away

Batum can do that.

[A.H 21-50]

he's not bad i would just rather us pick cdr, rush, or mario

I will pick him over Chalmers with no hesitation , but for CDR and rush i saw them couple of times and i don't know if they have the potential of batum

[spursfan98]

Batum can do that.

He better. He just doesnt seem like the player to do that but i will watch more of him

[AFBlue]

we need someone to contribute right away

That's what free agency is for...

I don't see any instant contributors that are likely to be around when the Spurs pick. And in the absence of instant contributors, draft talent.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

He better. He just doesnt seem like the player to do that but i will watch more of him

How does he not seem like that?

[spursfan98]

That's what free agency is for...

I don't see any instant contributors that are likely to be around when the Spurs pick. And in the absence of instant contributors, draft talent.

If thats how it is then we should draft chalmers and have him be the backup PG

[AFBlue]

Oh and FWIW, Rush seems like the only guy to be a solid to good player with the potential to contribute right away.

CDR is overrated, IMO.

And Chalmers needs to make the transition to PG, because he's not a finished product.

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

If thats how it is then we should draft chalmers and have him be the backup PG

That case can easily be made for Batum.

[spursfan98]

Oh and FWIW, Rush seems like the only guy to be a solid to good player with the potential to contribute right away.

CDR is overrated, IMO.

And Chalmers needs to make the transition to PG, because he's not a finished product.

True rush would be better than CDR

[AFBlue]

If thats how it is then we should draft chalmers and have him be the backup PG

Spurs have Tony Parker at PG for the next four years. Who do they have at SF?

Spurs' long-term focus should be on the wing if they draft a "potential" type player.