The 2010 Plan - Stick with it?

[mountainballer]

for quite some time some people talked about the "2008 plan", which in fact never existed and I do doubt that there is a 2010 plan.
the championship window is open for another 2 years (three at best, if either Tim and Manu don't decline significantly). blow this opportunity for a plan, that might land a good FA, but without any guarantee that they will be on the market and if they are, that they will ever sign with the Spurs.
the only sure thing Spurs have is Tim and a few more productive years left in his tank.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

The 2010 plan is just as dumb as last time. Worked out well with JKidd and O'Neal, and that was with TD in his prime...

The front office needs to make a push this summer to take the best run it can at the le for the remainder of the Tim Duncan era (which appears to be through 2012 based on his and Pop's deals).

Plan on the cap room coming clean in 2012, not 2010, and do everything you can to win NOW.

Have to agree with this.

In 2010 Manu and Tim will be 34 - that puts Manu on the downside of his career ( ), especially given the beating he takes, and Tim just starting to decline with about another 2-3 productive season in him. Actually, I think Tim and Pop will sail off into the Bahaman sunset in 2012.

Concurrently, the Lakers/Blazers/Jazz/Hornets are all young and will only get better - by 2010 they will be ruling the conference. It is time to win NOW. If we don't spend the money now and use the next two years to start to get younger and more athletic, we'll fall way behind the emerging Western conference powers. And I certainly don't believe in this mythical capspace - SA simply doesn't attract high-profile FAs, so holding out for 2010 is fool's gold.

Land the right guys this season and we will continue to contend for the next two years, and maybe even beyond if they develop as Spurs like Manu and Tony have. Two all-court swingmen, and two big men is what we need to acquire over the next two years, a tall order. it's an interesting time to be a Spurs fan.

[bobbybob0]

Here's a hypothetical. What if E. Brand finds himself looking across ths Staples Center at the Lakers front-line and gets to thinking," My best, and maybe only shot at a ring, is to go play alongside Tim."

I'm all for screwing up the 2010 plan if it means bringing E. Brand while TD and Manu are not done.

[ca®lo]

thing is..

is there really a 2010 plan?

back in 04 and 05 we all thought theres an 08 plan..

turns out there wasnt.

[Ocotillo]

This is a pretty tough question for me. My gut says go for something this year.

The thing is when Jason Kidd and O'Neal both declined to come here last time we blocked out cap space it makes you wonder. With a Tim Duncan arguably a top two player at the time, why would those guys not sign on? Franchise players don't typically switch teams via free agency. Teams have to do everything they can to keep said player because they have a fan base that will hold them accountable if they don't. The easy thing is to stay because the in bent team can offer the best deal. Sign and trades make it more difficult.

There are good, even great players who switch but guys like Lebron, Dwight Howard or Kobe don't bail on their team. Somehow it gets worked out and one of the ways is a team like the Spurs with a lot of cap room is used for leverage.

On the other hand, if you accept defeat, that you are not going to get that "prize", you never will and will be doomed to mediocrity or worse.

Timmy and Manu are better players today than they will be in 2010. Despite his having his best NBA season yet, Manu shows all the signs of potentially being done as an all star caliber player by then due to his reckless playing style and propensity for injuries.

Unfortunately, the Spurs best hope of continuing to be serious contender into the post-2010 timeframe is that the front office got it right and Mahinmi exceeds expectations. Outside of the big three, there are no assets to land a franchise cornerstone.

Drafting where the Spurs do year in and year out, they have to hope the front office finds another Tony or Manu. I have my doubts about that happening as well. I hope R.C. proves me wrong.

I think you scrap the 2010 plan and replace it with a 2012 plan and try and milk as many more rings out of the big three as you can before sliding into lottery . If Ian becomes a stud, that gives a glimmer of hope but that is an iffy proposition.

[timvp]

thing is..

is there really a 2010 plan?

back in 04 and 05 we all thought theres an 08 plan..

turns out there wasnt.

I see a lot of people saying this but the only thing that stopped the Spurs from opening up cap room this summer was winning the 2007 championship. If they wouldn't have won it all last season, this would be the summer major caproom would have been opened.

After the championship, the Spurs did the following: extend Bowen's contract, re-sign Oberto, re-sign Bonner, re-sign Vaughn and sign Udoka. If the Spurs hadn't have won a championship since 2005, no way the Spurs do all that.

But looking back on it, did the Spurs make the right choice? I'm not convinced they did. If they would have followed through with the 2008 plan, the Spurs would have ~$8-12M in caproom right now. Obviously, there's no guarantee that all those players above would still be with the team but imagine how nice it'd be to have all that money this summer. The Spurs could have the Big Three and add another star. Bowen would have stuck around one way or another.

The 2008 plan was real but the Spurs decided to postpone it. Looking back now, it could have very well have been a mistake. Letting players like Oberto, Bonner and Vaughn walk to open significant caproom could have paid off nicely.

[AFBlue]

I see a lot of people saying this but the only thing that stopped the Spurs from opening up cap room this summer was winning the 2007 championship. If they wouldn't have won it all last season, this would be the summer major caproom would have been opened.

After the championship, the Spurs did the following: extend Bowen's contract, re-sign Oberto, re-sign Bonner, re-sign Vaughn and sign Udoka. If the Spurs hadn't have won a championship since 2005, no way the Spurs do all that.

But looking back on it, did the Spurs make the right choice? I'm not convinced they did. If they would have followed through with the 2008 plan, the Spurs would have ~$8-12M in caproom right now. Obviously, there's no guarantee that all those players above would still be with the team but imagine how nice it'd be to have all that money this summer. The Spurs could have the Big Three and add another star. Bowen would have stuck around one way or another.

The 2008 plan was real but the Spurs decided to postpone it. Looking back now, it could have very well have been a mistake. Letting players like Oberto, Bonner and Vaughn walk to open significant caproom could have paid off nicely.

Antawn Jamison at the 4....Pop would've been in small ball heaven.

[ElNono]

I see a lot of people saying this but the only thing that stopped the Spurs from opening up cap room this summer was winning the 2007 championship. If they wouldn't have won it all last season, this would be the summer major caproom would have been opened.

After the championship, the Spurs did the following: extend Bowen's contract, re-sign Oberto, re-sign Bonner, re-sign Vaughn and sign Udoka. If the Spurs hadn't have won a championship since 2005, no way the Spurs do all that.

But looking back on it, did the Spurs make the right choice? I'm not convinced they did. If they would have followed through with the 2008 plan, the Spurs would have ~$8-12M in caproom right now. Obviously, there's no guarantee that all those players above would still be with the team but imagine how nice it'd be to have all that money this summer. The Spurs could have the Big Three and add another star. Bowen would have stuck around one way or another.

The 2008 plan was real but the Spurs decided to postpone it. Looking back now, it could have very well have been a mistake. Letting players like Oberto, Bonner and Vaughn walk to open significant caproom could have paid off nicely.

They took a gamble with returning pretty much the same team, because in years past they retooled after a championship and that didn't work. I don't think it was too bad to try something else.
Sometimes you gamble and it pays off, sometimes it doesn't.

[greens]

In the summer of 2010, the Spurs will only have Tim Duncan and Tony Parker under contract. Ian Mahinmi would also be under contract if the Spurs pick up his team option, as would whoever the Spurs draft this year in the first round (assuming it's a domestic player, of course). All told, the Spurs are looking at something around $20-25 million in cap room. Even after giving Ginobili a new contract, there'd be enough money to snag a star.

It seems now with Manu's bad performance during the Lakers series, while playing on a bad ankle, some fans are saying that they doubt that the Spurs would re-sign Manu in 2010.

Any truth to that thinking? You just said that there is enough money to resign Manu and still have some left for a good player. How much do you think the Spurs might offer Manu? Or do you think they might NOT resign him like some fans are thinking? Anyway, I just wanted to ask your opinion. Or how much would Manu even ask for? I mean he took a paycut in his 6 year contract. So would he do that again, with even less money going to him? He says that he still wants to play for a few more years after his contract. I just don't know what his thinking will be about his new possible contract OR even if the Spurs would still want to resign him? I mean, Pop wants to hold on to Horry/Finley/Barry for years and years, even though they are older now and less useful. Yet, I heard that Pop suggested trading David Robinson? But then, I think that now Pop has developed a bond with Manu, as did Tony/Tim/Bruce. Yet, it is a business.

He's my favorite player. So I'm a bit worried.

[MannyIsGod]

I see a lot of people saying this but the only thing that stopped the Spurs from opening up cap room this summer was winning the 2007 championship. If they wouldn't have won it all last season, this would be the summer major caproom would have been opened.

After the championship, the Spurs did the following: extend Bowen's contract, re-sign Oberto, re-sign Bonner, re-sign Vaughn and sign Udoka. If the Spurs hadn't have won a championship since 2005, no way the Spurs do all that.

But looking back on it, did the Spurs make the right choice? I'm not convinced they did. If they would have followed through with the 2008 plan, the Spurs would have ~$8-12M in caproom right now. Obviously, there's no guarantee that all those players above would still be with the team but imagine how nice it'd be to have all that money this summer. The Spurs could have the Big Three and add another star. Bowen would have stuck around one way or another.

The 2008 plan was real but the Spurs decided to postpone it. Looking back now, it could have very well have been a mistake. Letting players like Oberto, Bonner and Vaughn walk to open significant caproom could have paid off nicely.

Meh. We're a healthy Barry/Horry from being in the Finals right now. We're a Manu + one more red bull from being in the Finals right now. We're a Joey Crawford whistle from being on the Finals right now.

Saying the Spurs made a mistake this past off season is reaaaaaaaaaaaaaally pushing it and playing some serious Monday morning QB.

You also can't blame them for not foreseeing the Gasol trade. Jesus, if that gift doesn't happen the Spurs win the championship!

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

It seems now with Manu's bad performance during the Lakers series, while playing on a bad ankle, some fans are saying that they doubt that the Spurs would re-sign Manu in 2010.

Any truth to that thinking? You just said that there is enough money to resign Manu and still have some left for a good player. How much do you think the Spurs might offer Manu? Or do you think they might NOT resign him like some fans are thinking? Anyway, I just wanted to ask your opinion. Or how much would Manu even ask for? I mean he took a paycut in his 6 year contract. So would he do that again, with even less money going to him? He says that he still wants to play for a few more years after his contract. I just don't know what his thinking will be about his new possible contract OR even if the Spurs would still want to resign him? I mean, Pop wants to hold on to Horry/Finley/Barry for years and years, even though they are older now and less useful. Yet, I heard that Pop suggested trading David Robinson? But then, I think that now Pop has developed a bond with Manu, as did Tony/Tim/Bruce. Yet, it is a business.

He's my favorite player. So I'm a bit worried.

It will all depend on his health. By 2010 he'll be 34, old for a normal SG, very old for someone who plays like Manu does.

Why worry about it? Enjoy the next two years and see what happens!

[timvp]

Meh. We're a healthy Barry/Horry from being in the Finals right now. We're a Manu + one more red bull from being in the Finals right now. We're a Joey Crawford whistle from being on the Finals right now.

Saying the Spurs made a mistake this past off season is reaaaaaaaaaaaaaally pushing it and playing some serious Monday morning QB.

You also can't blame them for not foreseeing the Gasol trade. Jesus, if that gift doesn't happen the Spurs win the championship!

I agree with all your "ifs" but which of the moves that were made after the 2007 would have changed the formula? Letting Bonner and Vaughn walk wouldn't have changed much. Playing hardball with Oberto might have backfired but was he really leaving if the Spurs would have held steadfast to a one-year contract offer?

But my point really wasn't second guessing what the Spurs did last summer. After a championship, you can't really blame the Spurs for re-signing their championship parts. We saw how not doing so blew up in their face in 2003 (not re-signing Jack to open up room for Rasho ).

My point was to look at how not following through with the 2008 plan worked out and how that compares to the 2010 plan. If the Spurs would have followed through on the 2008 plan, they'd have ~$10M right now to spend on free agents. Instead, they used that same money on Bonner, Oberto, Vaughn, Udoka and to extend Bowen. The money will also be likely used to re-sign Thomas (and perhaps Barry if Barry wants more than the minimum).

For those who want to forgo the 2010 plan, it's a good way to see what the alternative would be. If you scrap the 2010 plan to stockpile role players, is that worth the chance to go after a star? It's tough to say.

[timvp]

It seems now with Manu's bad performance during the Lakers series, while playing on a bad ankle, some fans are saying that they doubt that the Spurs would re-sign Manu in 2010.

Any truth to that thinking?

Two early to tell. However, I'd say there's a very good chance Ginobili is re-signed after the 2010 season. He'd have to basically fall off the face of the earth for the Spurs to look elsewhere. The only other way they don't re-sign him is if they decide to sign other options that eat up their salary cap and he's forced to go elsewhere to make the money he wants to make.

I don't think either of those two scenarios are too likely. Ginobili will bounce back and he should have a number of good years left. Thanks to how Pop has limited his minutes in his career and his late start in the NBA, he doesn't have that much mileage on him compared to a lot of shooting guards his age.

You just said that there is enough money to resign Manu and still have some left for a good player. How much do you think the Spurs might offer Manu?

That's tough to say right now. He'll be making around $11M in the final year of his contract. If he stays at his current level, something like a three-year, $27-36M would probably be his market value.

To put it in perspective, Ginobili in 2010 will be about the same age as Barry was in 2004 when he joined the Spurs. Barry got a four-year contract so it's not unreasonable for the Spurs to sign Ginobili to a three or four year contract. At near his current level, he'd probably pull in around $10M a year. Even if his level drops, he'll likely still be able to make $6-7M a year. The only way he drops below that is if he can't stay healthy.

Or do you think they might NOT resign him like some fans are thinking? Anyway, I just wanted to ask your opinion. Or how much would Manu even ask for? I mean he took a paycut in his 6 year contract. So would he do that again, with even less money going to him?

I don't remember Ginobili taking less money. He didn't holdout and try to milk the Spurs for as much money as possible ... but no one else was even offering him a serious contract. The Nuggets were thinking about it but then decided to go after KMart instead. Ginobili's contract was basically market value or a tad bit higher than market value, considering no one really had capspace to try to woo him away.

He says that he still wants to play for a few more years after his contract. I just don't know what his thinking will be about his new possible contract OR even if the Spurs would still want to resign him? I mean, Pop wants to hold on to Horry/Finley/Barry for years and years, even though they are older now and less useful. Yet, I heard that Pop suggested trading David Robinson? But then, I think that now Pop has developed a bond with Manu, as did Tony/Tim/Bruce. Yet, it is a business.

He's my favorite player. So I'm a bit worried.

As Ruff said, no real reason to worry at this point. Summer of 2010 is a long ways away. Anything -- good or bad -- could happen between then and now. Maybe Ginobili just keeps getting better and multiple teams are throwing max money at him and the Spurs are forced to spend all their caproom retaining him. Maybe the team needs to be totally rebuilt and Ginobili leaves to go to a team that is closer to a championship.

Chances are, though, that Manu will retire a Spur and that won't be for another 4-6 years.

[spurs_believer]

Sometimes you gamble and it pays off, sometimes it doesn't.

I agree with this logic in general but it appears none of the gambles immediately after championships paid off in terms of repeat so far.

[wildbill2u]

Gambling that all of the Big 3 will be healthy and playing at star level not only in 2010 but for a couple of years after that is a bigger leap of faith than going over Niagra Falls on a boogie board.

What guarantee do we have that Duncan will even want to play another 2-4 years after 2010 if we go into a decline for the next two year?

What guarantee do we have that really starquality FA players will want to come to SA to play with an aging Big 3?

The future is now while we still have the Big 3 playing at a good level--but we've got so much tied up in players of limited ability that we're limited in our moves to retool the bench--and the pipeline of draftees is shaky as .

Retool now with whatever it takes for FAs, win a championship or two with the Big 3 and then sit back and let the NBA draft take its course while we wind up with a couple of lottery picks.

[angelbelow]

Antawn Jamison at the 4....Pop would've been in small ball heaven.

i think the entire spurs fan base would be in small ball heaven

[EJK5032]

This team was # 3 in the West, even with resting players and injuries during the season, made it to the Western Conference Finals, lost a series that easily could have been a 4-1 series win with another Finals appearance, and has 3 All-NBA players in their prime !!!

are you kidding me ?

[spurster]

A healthy big 3 plus good role players is good enough for the Spurs to win a championship in the next two years. Without good role players, there's no chance. We have seen that it takes at least a year for role players to learn Pop's system. The 2010 plan is based on a complete overhaul renouncing everybody except Parker and Duncan. If you get a mostly new set of role players, it will be one or two years after that when you might expect everyone to play well together. At that point, I don't think the Spurs will have the extra years to do that.

[SPURSGOAT]

Go for King James in 2010....

[PDXSpursFan]

Screw 2010. We need to re-tool now. Tim and Manu are not getting any better in the next 2 years. We need to add the missing pieces around the big 3 now to compete against Lakers & Hornets.

[midnightpulp]

Go for King James in 2010....

I know that seems super unrealistic, but is it really so far out a proposition that it couldn't possibly happen?

If Kobe has a two peat by that time, is universally declared the greatest player since Jordan by the idiot pundits, and assuming the Cavs don't get their together, why wouldn't Lebron want to come to the West and challenge himself against Bryant?

He's be a perfect fit along side Duncan, who would be Shaquille to his Wade, and Tony Parker. Manu off the bench? Or would he be gone by this stage?

It's a pipedream, but maybe, just maybe...

[hsxvvd]

So does not getting Splitter at least save us money?

[Bruno]

Splitter staying in Spain makes things really tricky towards the 2010 plan.

There is the easy scenario of Splitter wanting to sign with Spurs in 2010 and Spurs still wanting him.

However, if Splitter don't want to sign and/or if Spurs don't want him, it will be quite complicate.
Spurs can keep his NBA rights but it will eat some cap space ($390K to be accurate). If you will need these $390K to sign a player, you face a dilemma.
Spurs will have three options :
1) They can keep his rights and hurt their rebuilding plan.
2) Spurs can trade his rights to another team but it will only work if Splitter agree to sign with them for the rookie scale.
3) Spurs can renounce to him and make Splitter an unrestricted free agent.

The key is when is Splitter NBA opt out deadline in 2010.
If it's July 1st or sooner, Spurs will be able to renounce to him without the risk of seeing him signing with another NBA team.
If it's after July 15th, I can see Splitter saying that he won't sign in NBA for only the rookie scale, Spurs renouncing to his rights and Splitter signing with the NBA team offering the most money to him.

I don't want to think at the worst case but it's possible that the Splitter story end up with Splitter signing a MLE contract with Mavs, Lakers or Rockets in 2010...

[rascal]

I agree with this logic in general but it appears none of the gambles immediately after championships paid off in terms of repeat so far.

The spurs do not gamble. They needed to add new players after champiohships because some players retired or some role players just didn't work out and were replaced with other role players.

Last year they stayed with the same team. I call that a conservative, passive decision, not any type of gamble.

[wildbill2u]

Staying with the team that won you the championship is what most teams would do. It looked like a great decision for the first few months of the season.

However the development of other teams by trade (Korver, Gasol, Scola, etc) and draft decisions that panned out--Paul, Roy, Durant, etc. for other WC teams, means that we have to get better just to stay in place.

Sure, we can make the playoffs next year without major retooling, but can we go all the way without getting better and younger?

If not, who wants to watch the probable end of TDs career, the peak of Manu and the decline of Bowen without a really good chance at the Championship in the next couple of years?

The future is now. But the FO will have to pull off some miracles in FA and the draft to make it happen.