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I blame this, rising gas prices, a county-wide ban of fireworks, and road construction on the Spurs getting bounced in the WCF.
I regret to inform you that observable reality does not conform to your opinion.
I blame this, rising gas prices, a county-wide ban of fireworks, and road construction on the Spurs getting bounced in the WCF.
Toyota is cutting back because sales are down. This has been happening in the industry for as long as I can remember...There is a huge bubble of relatively new used trucks and SUV's being dumped into the used car market right now as city slickers trade down...heck...a richer friend of mine just bought a hard loaded 40K mile 2007 King Ranch F350 4 door power stroke with all the ranch hand accessories etc. for $25,000. It was a $65,000 rig last year.
When oil stabilizes in the $90 range people will start buying trucks again.
Oh, so never then. Got it.
you really think oil would go down to $90 a barrel?
when OPEC says that they would like to see oil in the $80-$90 range and that there are no fundamental reasons for oil to be at $150 you can reasonably expect that oil will be coming down at some point in the future. It won't ever be at $18 again and it might even e to $200 before this speculative frenzy is over but OPEC is smart enough to realize that sustained $150-$200 oil will spark a global recession/depression and kill their volume.
$135 oil right now has a lot to do with the large influx of money that has come into commodity investing after fleeing stocks and real estate. It probably is correct that $90 oil is what the fundamentals say it should be, at least today.
If it were speculation, I would expect to see millions upon millions of barrels of oil going into storage. Instead, reserves are stable or declining.
According to the conventional wisdom, oil prices already should have triggered a recession. What we're seeing instead is the theorized "decoupling" of developing economies from the United States. In the past, when the U.S. sneezed, the world got a cold. Not this time. Not coincidentally, some of the nations with the strongest growth are the ones with lots of oil, like Russia and Saudi Arabia.
In addition, there is no certainty that Saudi Arabia has the excess capacity they claim to have. They are famously opaque about their operations, and their behavior suggests maybe they don't have it. Now if they admitted that, everyone would freak out that Peak Oil had already passed and you'd see a run on oil that would make the past year seem like a gentle breeze.
Interestingly, in EIA do ents they don't post on the internet, the peak in global conventional oil production is listed as 2005, and the peak in conventional liquids is predicted for 2010. Now that's just conventional oil. People who are paying attention know that recent breakthroughs in in situ bitumen processing mean that the recoverable reserves in Canada and Venezuela just skyrocketed, enough that the next generation of Cheneys are already scheming how they're going to convince the American public that we need to depose Hugo Chavez, and that we need to encourage Alberta to secede from Canada. The decoupling we're seeing is quite the ominous trend for American power as well, so they need to find a way to screw up some of these developing economies.
Now the fundamentals predict that we should have $90 oil today, but far from stabilizing, that should go up and up in the future. While we're going to see enormous investment in bitumen, even when capacity quadruples in the next 10 years, that's still only 4.4 mbpd. Conventional oil is plateauing while newly emergent economies keep demand growing ever higher (recent finds in Brazil, etc. are a drop in the bucket). Unless we engineer some sort of demand destruction in other countries, supply isn't going to keep up at $90 a barrel.
(Yes, I know much of what I described involves morally monstrous activities by the United States. I'm not endorsing it. Alliterative, but Godwin's-Lawbreaking turns of phrase such as "Albertan Anschluss" almost made it into the post. But I guaran-damn-tee you the corporate oilgarchs in the U.S. don't sweat such scruples.)
Wow I feel like I just gave birth to a wall street journal! You should run for office.
Good post
I agree with CC.
I expect sometime within 4 years for oil to dip back down under a 100 a barrel. We're in the middle of false inflation and bubble that is likely to burst sooner than later but probably not before it gets a little bigger.
These trucks already get 18-20 hwy so parnter more reasonable gas prices with trucks that get 23-25mph hwy and 18-20 city and they're back in business. Its just a swing that will take time. Out of all the trucks I expect Toyota to weather the storm the best. Only Ford is on the level quality wise with Chevy coming in behind them and Dodge pulling up the rear.
my uncle owns a used car biz in Houston, and you can barely give a truck away at auction these days. Civics and the like get bid up like crazy.
Oh, so you meant the era of NEW trucks is over? Fine with me. I hate the way the new GMT900s look and will probably stick with 03-06's for the next 20 years. Not to mention all the new ecocrap the new diesels are required to have anyways. Pre-runner, 4x4 on 37's with SFA. Im looking forward to it
Because I know plenty of people, myself inluded, who have a paid off truck and don't give a how high gas rises.
Then again, Chevy will be coming out with a 1/2 ton 4.6L diesel in a year or so...that might be worth it even 10 years from now if biodisel is still available to make. I haven't kept up on it since diesel has risen past $4. Everyone might have picked up on it and vegtable oil might be scarce Dunno.
Newsflash, some people are good with money, work hard, and will DAILY DRIVE trucks till the day they die and still retire wealthier than most.
Maybe if I'm lucky I can eventually purchase an international RXT and really piss people off.
Last edited by Anti.Hero; 06-18-2008 at 01:53 PM.
Maybe if I'm lucky I can eventually purchase an international RXT and really piss people off.Right on man.
The key word is "temporary jobs". As in, not permanent.
Any manufacturing company hires temps from temp agencies, usually not temp-to-hire. Instead of laying off full-time employees with benefits, you cut the temps and their inflated temp agency invoices.
Toyota isn't doing enough with marketing the Tundra.
They need to make the Virgen de Guadalupe decal STANDARD.
Anyone here work at Toyota, temp or perm?
What kind of spin are they giving or are they saying anything at all about the media reports?
A neighbor friend just got hired in March but he was hired as permanent and is very glad.
Looks like they have a foot out the door. Major Auto makers move and close down all the time. Why should Toyota be any different?
They may not completely shut down for at least 5 years but leave it to San Antonio and the constant changing Zoning laws, the aquifer recharge zones, and city council and the way they change the city tax. If Toyota does stay it will be the only major operation other than the Spurs to survive the bull San Antonio manufactures on a monthly basis.
What i don't get is what kind of Saki was the that Jap drinking when he decided to let a Mexican build a Toyota
Your such a racist!
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