If you are concerned primarily about your NBA games, you should add to the equation that the NBA is in the process of uploading the videos of every game ever played. I read about it a couple years ago and the company they contracted to do all the uploading estimated it'd take seven years to finish the project, IIRC. Once the games are available online, the NBA is supposedly going to let users download any game they want for a set price.
In other words, if you are thinking ten years ahead, by that time you will probably be able to download a new copy. And the peer-to-peer software by 2018 will likely make it easy find a free copy.
