Portland should win 50 games, but top-4 is ridiculous. Maybe as high as 6th, but even then that's really pushing things. I thought they should have made a play for Posey. Obviously they thought better.
I do expect a pretty sizeable improvement again, because while they are only adding rookies, the three they are adding each will likely finish in the top-10 in ROY voting, and any one of them may actually win it. They need better shooting, and losing James Jones hurts, but Webster looked to be improving in this area, and Bayless and Fernandez are each very good shooters.