The Spurs roster is becoming more balanced

[The Truth #6]

Lose out on Splitter and Maggette.

Draft Hill who plays mediocre, prompting the FO to go after Pargo who plays us.

Barry leaves because he's tired of playing 2nd fiddle to Finley.

Gist plays very well and then we tell him to leave and go to Europe.

We sign Mason for possibly more than he's worth.

Hold ground with keeping Kurt Thomas.

Ian plays solid but unspectacular in Summer league.

Hairston hardly shows anything.

Finley resigns even though he's one dimensional at best when he's clicking, which is one out of every 6 games.

This isn't something to get that excited about. Once again it's all about the big 3 having to overcome the deficiencies of their teammates, and in a sense, the decision making of the FO. Does someone see it different?

[lurker23]

This isn't something to get that excited about...Does someone see it different?

Okay, I'll play devil's advocate and try to take a more optimistic viewpoint, to show that a lot of this is just about how you spin it. (Note: I don't 100% believe some of these, and are just presented as argument...just as I hope some people don't 100% believe the Spurs are doomed for next year.)

-----

Spurs FO was very aggressive this offseason. They aimed high and went after players with recognizable names who filled specific needs for the team. These players included Corey Maggette, Eduardo Najera, Tiago Splitter, and Jannero Pargo.

Pargo and Splitter were lost because of evolving global economics, something that obviously isn't the fault of Peter Holt.

Maggette was offered the max that the Spurs had available; they had a good chance at him until he was overpaid; again, not the Spurs fault.

Najera received a contract that would have upset the 2010 plan, and could have become as big a deal to fans as Bonner's contract. He also liked the prospect of playing in the easier East.

Spurs hear the cry of fans that they need to get younger, so they replace Brent Barry with Roger Mason Jr. Mason is a promising guard who has always had a great knack for defense, and has found a reliable offensive game now too. Paid him slightly more than market value, but had to to get him to accept a 2-year contract which keeps the 2010 plan intact. Meanwhile, Barry is an aging veteran who had a major injury last year, which it took him a longer than expected time to recover from.

Instead of using everyone else's scouting reports, Spurs are proactive in trying to find the next diamond-in-the-rough in the draft. It's possible they've found one in George Hill, a guard who in summer league play has already shown tremendous defense and flashes of being very capable of running the point in the Spurs system. They also find an energetic 3/4 very late in the draft, who could end up being the real steal of the draft. As far as the NBA goes, he's not seasoned enough to play the 3 or big enough to play the 4, so they send him off to Italy to develop, hopefully to return when he's ready. As for Hairston, they already received another 2nd round pick and cash for their 2008 second rounder, so anything they get from him will be pure bonus.

Spurs also solidified their front-court by convincing Kurt Thomas, an unrestricted free agent, to stay with the team he's only been with for half a year. Thomas is a very capable veteran who will bring a lot to the fold in his first full year here. Spurs also resign Michael Finley, who will be a great locker room guy, especially for all the young guys on the team.

Finally, with Duncan, Oberto, Thomas, and small-ball Udoka eating up a lot of the important big man minutes, the Spurs will have the luxury of seeing what young big men Mahinmi, Bonner, and possibly Tolliver can do. If any of these guys can prove to be solid contributors, the Spurs will be more than set in the front-court.

----

And why are these not equally valid points of view? Sure, some of them are seen from very rose colored glasses, but a lot of the takes around here are seen through the glasses of Chicken Little, so there's really not much of a difference.

[SenorSpur]

Okay, I'll play devil's advocate and try to take a more optimistic viewpoint, to show that a lot of this is just about how you spin it. (Note: I don't 100% believe some of these, and are just presented as argument...just as I hope some people don't 100% believe the Spurs are doomed for next year.)

-----

Spurs FO was very aggressive this offseason. They aimed high and went after players with recognizable names who filled specific needs for the team. These players included Corey Maggette, Eduardo Najera, Tiago Splitter, and Jannero Pargo.

Pargo and Splitter were lost because of evolving global economics, something that obviously isn't the fault of Peter Holt.

Maggette was offered the max that the Spurs had available; they had a good chance at him until he was overpaid; again, not the Spurs fault.

Najera received a contract that would have upset the 2010 plan, and could have become as big a deal to fans as Bonner's contract. He also liked the prospect of playing in the easier East.

Spurs hear the cry of fans that they need to get younger, so they replace Brent Barry with Roger Mason Jr. Mason is a promising guard who has always had a great knack for defense, and has found a reliable offensive game now too. Paid him slightly more than market value, but had to to get him to accept a 2-year contract which keeps the 2010 plan intact. Meanwhile, Barry is an aging veteran who had a major injury last year, which it took him a longer than expected time to recover from.

Instead of using everyone else's scouting reports, Spurs are proactive in trying to find the next diamond-in-the-rough in the draft. It's possible they've found one in George Hill, a guard who in summer league play has already shown tremendous defense and flashes of being very capable of running the point in the Spurs system. They also find an energetic 3/4 very late in the draft, who could end up being the real steal of the draft. As far as the NBA goes, he's not seasoned enough to play the 3 or big enough to play the 4, so they send him off to Italy to develop, hopefully to return when he's ready. As for Hairston, they already received another 2nd round pick and cash for their 2008 second rounder, so anything they get from him will be pure bonus.

Spurs also solidified their front-court by convincing Kurt Thomas, an unrestricted free agent, to stay with the team he's only been with for half a year. Thomas is a very capable veteran who will bring a lot to the fold in his first full year here. Spurs also resign Michael Finley, who will be a great locker room guy, especially for all the young guys on the team.

Finally, with Duncan, Oberto, Thomas, and small-ball Udoka eating up a lot of the important big man minutes, the Spurs will have the luxury of seeing what young big men Mahinmi, Bonner, and possibly Tolliver can do. If any of these guys can prove to be solid contributors, the Spurs will be more than set in the front-court.

----

And why are these not equally valid points of view? Sure, some of them are seen from very rose colored glasses, but a lot of the takes around here are seen through the glasses of Chicken Little, so there's really not much of a difference.

Great points.

I always enjoy reading your posts.

[ceperez]

Spurs FO was very aggressive this offseason. They aimed high and went after players with recognizable names who filled specific needs for the team. These players included Corey Maggette, Eduardo Najera, Tiago Splitter, and Jannero Pargo.

Pargo and Splitter were lost because of evolving global economics, something that obviously isn't the fault of Peter Holt.

Maggette was offered the max that the Spurs had available; they had a good chance at him until he was overpaid; again, not the Spurs fault.

Najera received a contract that would have upset the 2010 plan, and could have become as big a deal to fans as Bonner's contract. He also liked the prospect of playing in the easier East.

Spurs hear the cry of fans that they need to get younger, so they replace Brent Barry with Roger Mason Jr. Mason is a promising guard who has always had a great knack for defense, and has found a reliable offensive game now too. Paid him slightly more than market value, but had to to get him to accept a 2-year contract which keeps the 2010 plan intact. Meanwhile, Barry is an aging veteran who had a major injury last year, which it took him a longer than expected time to recover from.

Instead of using everyone else's scouting reports, Spurs are proactive in trying to find the next diamond-in-the-rough in the draft. It's possible they've found one in George Hill, a guard who in summer league play has already shown tremendous defense and flashes of being very capable of running the point in the Spurs system. They also find an energetic 3/4 very late in the draft, who could end up being the real steal of the draft. As far as the NBA goes, he's not seasoned enough to play the 3 or big enough to play the 4, so they send him off to Italy to develop, hopefully to return when he's ready. As for Hairston, they already received another 2nd round pick and cash for their 2008 second rounder, so anything they get from him will be pure bonus.

Spurs also solidified their front-court by convincing Kurt Thomas, an unrestricted free agent, to stay with the team he's only been with for half a year. Thomas is a very capable veteran who will bring a lot to the fold in his first full year here. Spurs also resign Michael Finley, who will be a great locker room guy, especially for all the young guys on the team.

Finally, with Duncan, Oberto, Thomas, and small-ball Udoka eating up a lot of the important big man minutes, the Spurs will have the luxury of seeing what young big men Mahinmi, Bonner, and possibly Tolliver can do. If any of these guys can prove to be solid contributors, the Spurs will be more than set in the front-court.

Spurs could have possibly acquired some good quality free agents at a bargain price. Unfortunately, you are spot on that changing economics (The Euro at 1.5 to the Dollar) robbed them of the opportunity. The other FAs that signed with NBA clubs were clearly grossly overpaid.

In summary, it was a decent offseason considering what was available on both the draft and free agency. Unfortunately however, I think the Houston Rockets rang rings around us. They stole Brent Barry at a time when we were waiting on Magette. They stole Batum who was traded for Donte Greene to be dealt for Artest. Greene incidentally was drafted after Hill, so we may have potentially made the same move.

Mason is a decent player but not an all-star. Mahinmi may improve if he gets more playing time. Hill is a complete wild card but without a doubt a better defensive player than Vaughn. Tolliver is a Bonner clone, but more athletic and with better shooting form.

The roster then looks like this:

Thomas/Oberto
Duncan/Mahinmi/Bonner
Bowen/Udoka/Finley
Ginobli/Mason
Parker/Hill

Inactive, Injured Reserve:

Vaughn, Tolliver, Hariston(?)

[Dramon]

I agree with lurker.

What are you guys wanting the FO to do? They're being aggressive as they can without taking huge risks that don't pan out.

How aggressive do you want them to be? They've taken a decent amount of risks so far without going into make it or break it territory. Is it to the level of risk that you guys think they should? No, probably not but we don't need huge shakeups in the roster. You guys need to be more realistic. We're not going to get a Pau Gasol gift like the Lakers did.

More than anything you should be happy that our front office isn't trading away our only proven youth in Tony Parker for Jason Kidd. Or trading Ginobili for Shaq. Our FO doesn't make huge moves like that for which I am greatful. Maggete isn't bad but do you want them to overpay him just to sign leaving us with a Western Conference Larry Hughes? I mean, would you guys really be happy if they traded Vaughn, Thomas, Finley, and Udoku for Delonte West, Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace, and Joe Smith?


I really really think you guys have forgotten how good we are when our big 3 are healthy. Sure we lost against the Lakers but Ginobili was hitting open 3's and Kobe was hitting fadeaway jumpers with Bowen's hand directly in his face while he missed those exact same shots against the Celtics. They went on some offensive rebound droughts as well but at about half of those were just unlucky bounces. Would it really have gone differently if during all this we had JR Smith on our roster to start chucking halfcourt 3's while playing subpar defense to get us out of the drought?

Be glad that the biggest mistakes they made last year was Damon Stoudamire Who Popovich at least didn't give much PT.

You guys listen way too much to Bill Walton when he says that the Spurs are getting too old during games, we're not young but we're really not THAT old. Ginobili playing during the Olympics is going to hurt us more during the upcoming season than anything the FO did or didn't do.

I for one can't wait to see us get through the first two rounds of the playoffs without Robert Horry.

[jayc23]

Isn't defense supposed to win championships..

[timaios]

The Spurs are OK, except they have nobody to defend the athletics long SF (or small PF) like David West, Dirk Nowitski, Lamar Odom, Paul Pierce...

They need a Nocioni type player to be a real contender.

[spurs50_]

The Spurs must have one of a plan for 2010.

[lotr1trekkie]

Odd on that Tolliver and Hill end start in Austin. FO would not have pursued Pargo if they had confidence in Hill at pg. He is a project at pg but with upside down the line. The handwriting is on the wall for Bonner. Pop doesn't like his game. Against NO and Fakers he can't get unglued from the bench while Horry struggled mightily with a bad knee. Next season h's going to give us 20 -22 minutes like Hory did for 4 years. I don't think so.Finley is less effective coming off the bench than starting. If Mahimni can't deliver some quality minutes the Spurs are looking at the unthinkable---missing the playoffs unless we wear out the Big 3 in order to keep up with Hornets, Rockets and Mavs. litter's decision really set the dominoes falling because he was supposed to the big that replaced Horry. I think we need to bring Horry back for another year ---if healthy he's still better than Bonner, Tolliver, Gist etc.

[BlackBellamy]

The Spurs must have one of a plan for 2010.

Bosh.

[ALAMO_DEFENSE]

Bosh is a great idea. We need a Twin Towers again. I would like to get Melo, but its impossible i guess.

[Tully365]

If we look at the additions and the losses, and compare offense and defense, it looks like this:

Losses: Barry, Horry

Additions: Mason, Mahinmi, Hill

Comparing scoring, the replacements might look like this:
Mason replaces Finley (10.1 ppg)
Mahinmi replaces Horry (2.5 ppg)
Hill replaces Vaughn (4.1 ppg)
Finley replaces Barry (7.1 ppg) (as #5 swing player)

So the question is-- can Mason/Mahinmi/Hill/Finley score more than 23.8 ppg? I think they can. Even something as modest as 9/6/5/6 for those four players would be 26 ppg.
It's not a huge net gain, but it is plausible for there to be a gain here.

Compare the defensive replacements:
Is Mason a better defender than Finley? Yes
Will a young Mahinmi be a better defender than an old Horry? Very possible
Can Hill be better than Vaughn? Yes
Finley vs Barry? A wash...

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

If we look at the additions and the losses, and compare offense and defense, it looks like this:

Losses: Barry, Horry

Additions: Mason, Mahinmi, Hill

Comparing scoring, the replacements might look like this:
Mason replaces Finley (10.1 ppg)
Mahinmi replaces Horry (2.5 ppg)
Hill replaces Vaughn (4.1 ppg)
Finley replaces Barry (7.1 ppg) (as #5 swing player)

So the question is-- can Mason/Mahinmi/Hill/Finley score more than 23.8 ppg? I think they can. Even something as modest as 9/6/5/6 for those four players would be 26 ppg.
It's not a huge net gain, but it is plausible for there to be a gain here.

Compare the defensive replacements:
Is Mason a better defender than Finley? Yes
Will a young Mahinmi be a better defender than an old Horry? Very possible
Can Hill be better than Vaughn? Yes
Finley vs Barry? A wash...

We're not very much better, but better nonetheless.
A team that made it to the conference finals with their arguably 2nd best player on a bad ankle doesn't need huge improvements.

[mountainballer]

If we look at the additions and the losses, and compare offense and defense, it looks like this:

Losses: Barry, Horry

Additions: Mason, Mahinmi, Hill

Comparing scoring, the replacements might look like this:
Mason replaces Finley (10.1 ppg)
Mahinmi replaces Horry (2.5 ppg)
Hill replaces Vaughn (4.1 ppg)
Finley replaces Barry (7.1 ppg) (as #5 swing player)

So the question is-- can Mason/Mahinmi/Hill/Finley score more than 23.8 ppg? I think they can. Even something as modest as 9/6/5/6 for those four players would be 26 ppg.
It's not a huge net gain, but it is plausible for there to be a gain here.

Compare the defensive replacements:
Is Mason a better defender than Finley? Yes
Will a young Mahinmi be a better defender than an old Horry? Very possible
Can Hill be better than Vaughn? Yes
Finley vs Barry? A wash...

do you really think you can judge the quality of the team by just use some numbers and by ignoring much more obvious points?
like the question, who replaces minutes within the roster, if some unfortunately very likely scenarios happen.
the average player starts to decline around 32, then usually has another 3-4 productive years and then at one point hits the age wall. might happen at 35, at 36 or maybe at 38, but it will happen.
when this happens, such a player is more or less useless. we saw it last year with Horry. and this season we are in serious danger that it happens to Bowen, KT and Finley.
it's not a big deal, if you have another (younger) player, who just takes the minutes and provides the same impact. then the veteran can still be helpful as the 3rd stringer.
but who takes for example KTs minutes, if he goes Horry next season? Ian? Bonner? Tolliver?
and we won't see a quality drop? who takes the minutes of Bruce? Ime? can Ime play the same level of defense? sure, he can play decent defense, but is far from the impact of Bruce. and so on.
it's not about the numbers. it's about overall impact.
considering this, we are still 2 "impact" players away from the top of the West IMHO.
to assume that this impact players come from the group of Ian, Tolliver, Hill would be naive.

[Tully365]

do you really think you can judge the quality of the team by just use some numbers and by ignoring much more obvious points?
like the question, who replaces minutes within the roster, if some unfortunately very likely scenarios happen.
the average player starts to decline around 32, then usually has another 3-4 productive years and then at one point hits the age wall. might happen at 35, at 36 or maybe at 38, but it will happen.
when this happens, such a player is more or less useless. we saw it last year with Horry. and this season we are in serious danger that it happens to Bowen, KT and Finley.
it's not a big deal, if you have another (younger) player, who just takes the minutes and provides the same impact. then the veteran can still be helpful as the 3rd stringer.
but who takes for example KTs minutes, if he goes Horry next season? Ian? Bonner? Tolliver?
and we won't see a quality drop? who takes the minutes of Bruce? Ime? can Ime play the same level of defense? sure, he can play decent defense, but is far from the impact of Bruce. and so on.
it's not about the numbers. it's about overall impact.
considering this, we are still 2 "impact" players away from the top of the West IMHO.
to assume that this impact players come from the group of Ian, Tolliver, Hill would be naive.

If you add up a variety of small improvements and a completely healthy Ginobili to the mix, you have a team that can be better than the one that made it to the WCF last year.
To answer your questions:
If KT drops off-- 4 extra mpg from Oberto, 4 extra from Ian, 2 from Bonner, 2 from Tolliver= 12 fewer mpg for Kurt, which by the way, I don't think will be needed at all.
If Bowen drops off-- 6 extra mpg from Udoka, 3 extra from Manu (with Mason at SG), 3 extra from Finley, 2 from Tolliver= potentially 14 mpg of backup relief. Problem solved. And Pop is even better at this than I am.

Look at my post again. I talked about offensive numbers AND defense. The whole package, not just numbers. Also, you are neglecting the distinct possibility that Parker is only entering his prime right now and could be better than ever, as well as the potential improvement from role players like Udoka, Bonner, and Thomas who are now more familiar with the complex Spurs' system.

[ceperez]

The Spurs are OK, except they have nobody to defend the athletics long SF (or small PF) like David West, Dirk Nowitski, Lamar Odom, Paul Pierce...

They need a Nocioni type player to be a real contender.

Agree... unless Tolliver is that guy.

[mountainballer]

Problem solved. And Pop is even better at this than I am.

I do hope he is. your idea that minutes can just be handed to whoever is left on the roster and could play the positions is...well, clueless.
and if you talk about Pop, than you should see how he handles rotations. it's about what role you play in the rotation. you think when a player turns from a 30 MPG player to a 15 MPG player, you just give 5 additional minutes to all the others? what an unbelievable nonsense. if a player loses his ability to deliver 30 quality MPG you need another player able to do this, who takes his spot in the rotation. if you don't have this player, your team gets worse. end of story.

as well as the potential improvement from role players like Udoka, Bonner, and Thomas who are now more familiar with the complex Spurs' system.

once more the weak "learn the system" argument.
Bonner was worse in his 2nd year than in his 1st. and you think he improves in his 3rd? why? because he got married?
the 36 years old KT won't "improve" book it.
Ime. maybe. so what. you've got a decent role player like even the worst teams usually have 3 or 4.


btw Tony? yes he's still young, but there isn't any player in the history who played as many games as he did up to his age. he's got the milage and experience of a 30+ years old player. you better hope he doesn't start to decline earlier than a player usually does.

[mountainballer]

They need a Nocioni type player to be a real contender.

agree.
(plus a quality role player big, someone like Haslem)

[Kamnik]

I doubt Bonner can develop much...

[mrspurs]

One little problem, coaching. Who knows what Carlisle is gonna do in his first year in the Mavs organization, and you can not tell 100% if the players are gonna respond positively. At least when the Mavs made the switch from Nellie to AJ, they went with someone who was already in the system and had a raport with the players. There's gonna be a feeling out period of sorts in Dallas, especially coming off the heals of three very dissapointing seasons. Do the Mavs match up with the Spurs? Maybe. Can they beat them? That's a completley different story altogether.

yeah just wait till rick and mark have that first, (i thought you said you could coach) and then mark replying with.........i can, i really can and one other thing rick dont piss me off or ill upset you, the players, and the fans. ive done it before ill do it again