I think it's pretty much a consensus that there will be little shear for Gustav in the GOM. I could be wrong though.
One thing I DO know is that the loop current is going to make this absolutely explode again.
Worse than Katrina even. If you can believe it, Katrina hit New Orleans with its weak side and look at all the that happened. Gustav will be hitting New Orleans with its strong side. So, even worse. Doesn't help that the storm is getting bigger and bigger (size wise, but winds are increasing and pressure is dropping fast).
Internal pressure of Gustav was just recorded at 943.7 millibars.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a category 4 hurricane.
sons be prepared to watch the thousands of people in the gulf coast that are living off the government when they can still work FAIL
935 mb!!!!!! OH MY GOD! A 20 mb drop in 2 hours!
And this hasn't even hit the really warm waters yet. Damn.
This better not come to Corpus
Is it FOR SURE that Gus is supposed to hit the loop current? Dr. Masters was saying something about Gus only hitting a portion of the loop current and then hitting up the Cold Eddy...
Do y'all think a Texas landfall is still highly unlikely?
Gustav has already attained the PEAK strength assigned by the The Weather Channel, the strongest they said the storm would get. It's 15 mb away from Cat 5 status.
And that's some scary stuff. My relatives are already leaving the Lake Charles area. They aren't taking any chances. New Orleans, depending on where Gustav hits, will have worse flooding than what Katrina did.
Katrina was bad for NO largely because it had CAT 5 storm surge combined with poor engineering around the city. Its all about angles, this could be worse it could end up being about the same or it could be less.
The parishes to the south will almost certainly be ed harder this time. Just because this doesn't flood (IF it doesn't) downtown NO that doesn't mean the NO metro area won't suffer horribly.
Man, this scenario just ing sucks right now.
pressure is probably still at 945 - if you look at the data on that dropsonde it wasn't accurate.
The planet doesn't want us here.
It may not hit the loop current eddy, but its for sure going to hit the loop current.
There is an eddy of cooler waters just to the north of that, but really its moving fast enough to where thats not going to weaken it. I mean the passage over Cuba is only going to weaken it to maybe a strong cat 3 (if that) so passage over colder water might have a smilllar affect.
For a reference the latest run of the HWRF which is a decent model is projecting a 904mb storm at landfall. Katrina at her strongest (not nearly at landfall) was only 902. Anyone hoping for this thing to weaken in the Gulf is going to be dissapointed.
And no, this close in its almost for sure going to be a landfall somewhere in LA.
They've repeatedly announced it on the air, so I'm guessing they got some kind of confirmation. Flight level winds at 165mph. He's a classic Cat 4 all the way.
Forecast models are now in mostly agreement... central to eastern LA landfall.
Actually the updated models show that Gustav does not weaken over Cuba, because it's ramping up so fast that it's just going to maintain intensity instead of weakening.There is an eddy of cooler waters just to the north of that, but really its moving fast enough to where thats not going to weaken it. I mean the passage over Cuba is only going to weaken it to maybe a strong cat 3 (if that) so passage over colder water might have a smilllar affect.
Every hour this is looking more and more like worst-case scenario.
My cousins are already talking about going to school up here in DFW. i don't think it'll be that serious, but you never know.
Stadium effect eyewall is now in place. Freaking amazing.
Cry the TWC is wrong. We'll see what Recon finds on next pass but the lowest good pressure they found was 945 (nothing to sneeze at on its own anyway)
Man, some poor Cubans are getting it hard right now.
It wouldn't surprise me if they were wrong. But I bet it's close to a cat 5 before it hits Cuba anyway.Cry the TWC is wrong. We'll see what Recon finds on next pass but the lowest good pressure they found was 945 (nothing to sneeze at on its own anyway)
Man, some poor Cubans are getting it hard right now.
Why are there always asshats projecting strange paths like pictured above. ing one of those lines has this hurricane circling the gulf like its dancing around a hat until it ends up in Mexico. I don't get that .
They are computer models. Some of them aren't as accurate because they focus on less relevant steering factors. But it's important to know what they say anyway, as it helps to build a composite idea of what the general consensus is (among computers, anyway).
Headline now on MSNBC:
"Gustav could become Category 5 before crossing Cuba, forecasters say."
You're right sir.
Aren't the differential equations used to predict hurricane tracks chaotic? As in, arbitrarily small errors in any measurements such as wind velocity, pressure, humidity, etc. will cause unpredictable errors in the prediction outside of a (small) local area of time.
Right. Each model uses a different primary measurement to indicate storm track. Some years, the models don't take into account major players in the atmosphere, and so you wind up with a track that takes Gustav into Florida (~1% chance).
This year so far, the GFDL has been accurate as far as path, and the GFDI has been relatively more accurate in regards to intensity.
Almost all of the forecast models blew the call on this one though. Gustav is far stronger than any computer predicted it was going to be. An example of how humans are still able to extrapolate important data to make more accurate predictions than most storm models at this point in technology's history.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
