Gustav

[Cry Havoc]

Water temps... Katrina vs. today.

Aggie, a NOAA weather buoy just reported wave heights near the core of Gustav at 35 feet.

If that's the case, there is no telling how horrible this impact good be. 35 feet waves are hard to imagine being pushed onshore.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

http://www.ksat.com/video/17347538/index.html -- Live coverage from WDSU.com in NOLA.

http://www.nola.com/ -- NOLA.com (Times-Pic).

[T Park]

35 foot waves?

Holy smokes....

[baseline bum]

, time to get my board.

[RashoFan]

Cowabunga dude...

[Cry Havoc]

Dry air has penetrated Gustav's central core. He's choking a bit. Chances are that he will now not make landfall above a category 3 storm.

A big relief to those living in NOLA. This is not a doomsday storm.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Aggie, a NOAA weather buoy just reported wave heights near the core of Gustav at 35 feet.

If that's the case, there is no telling how horrible this impact good be. 35 feet waves are hard to imagine being pushed onshore.

I also read that the estimated time of land fall will be at high tide. Double whammy.

[Cry Havoc]

Gustav begins to strengthen again. It might actually make cat 4.

[T Park]

Looks like the storm is weakening.

Awesome turn of events if true.

[baseline bum]

WTF? This storm can't make up its mind. It's like a completely new forecast every 20 minutes on here.

[Brandon Fraser]

Looks like the storm is weakening.

Awesome turn of events if true.

Tpark give it a ing rest!

[Brandon Fraser]

WTF? This storm can't make up its mind.

Maybe it should be re-named the KerryCain

[T Park]

WTF? This storm can't make up its mind. It's like a completely new forecast every 20 minutes on here.

The exact same thing I was thinking.

[SpursWoman]

As of the last NHC discussion, it's still forecast to strengthen into a Cat 4. That hasn't changed. It got a little choked up over Cuba, but it's still got 18 hours over open water until it gets to the coast. FWIW.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny/AHF/All others:

I've been to LOOP a couple of times, the most recent was a few months after Katrina. The topic of hurricane readiness came up at that meeting, and I'll say that I am very confident that Gustav, or any other major hurricanes, will not do major damage to it. They can have power to the pipelines back within a couple of days.

The more serious problem, in regards to LOOP, is their storage caverns onshore in Houma, LA. To get crude oil out, they use brine, and the pit is exposed to the elements. Large scale damage to the brine pit (Houma is basically just a swamp and while I don't know the area that well, I'd imagine that the storm surge in that area would put the pit underwater) could make those caverns inoperable for awhile. However, new shipments will be able to come in.

The industry is significantly better prepared this time around the 2005, so I don't think we'll see the kind of situation we had back then (for one, we don't have the tightness in the product markets we had then to start with). I have seen quit a lot of bullish oil statements in various publications, but they seem to be for the purposes of aiding the author's own bullish positions rather than reality.

Scott,

The stuff that I read was mainly concern over scouring of the pipes leading away from LOOP because of the angle Gustav was going to come in at. Apparently this is a problem that was discovered in 2005 with those hurricanes but has not been fixed in the least.

Whats your opinion on that?

[pickle girl]

Do these storms effect the price of shrimp?



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favorite quotes from the politics forum

[MannyIsGod]

Gustav's eye is looking more ragged by the minute. Either he's undergoing an ERC, or he just isn't able to gather strength with that high coasting off to his right.

It's a good example of just how many conditions have to be right for a hurricane to truly explode.

Strengthening is still not out of the question, but he's going to have to get his act together quickly if he wants to reach cat 5.

Still should make landfall as a cat3 or cat4. Still completely dangerous. But thankfully he might not be the "worst-case" scenario.

Eyewall replacement cycles require concentric eyewalls. An outer EW forms and eventually deprives the inner eyewall of the lift needed to be sustained. If you don't see concentric eyewalls you can rule an EWRC out.

[Dex]

This must be the new school of weather forecasting. Just predict every possible combination of storms, and one of them is bound to be right.

[GoGatos.]

Do these storms effect the price of shrimp?

I am not sure who would now that here at ST. I do know one thing who needs KSAT when we have MannyWeather!

[MannyIsGod]

This must be the new school of weather forecasting. Just predict every possible combination of storms, and one of them is bound to be right.

The real forcast hasn't changed much at all. Why you guys are all riding on CH's (or any of mine for that matter) posts I do'nnt know.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm trying to collect links for Gustav information/coverage to put at KSAT.com. If anybody has any good ones, please post them and I'll check back as I add more.

Right now, I've got some links to media around the area (including Miss.), Red Cross, FEMA, NHC and some Twitter links.

[MannyIsGod]

FWIW, I don't think Cuba had all that much to do with this storm. I think more important than sea surface temps are upper air conditions. Yesterday when Gustav expoded you saw a poleward outflow jet that was moving air far into the SE US. Thats pretty damn impressive and it allows the storm to move air much faster. Air moving faster obviously can equal higher winds.

You don't see that today. Whether or not you see that before tihs storm comes ashore us unknown.

CH was wrong in saying this is not a doomsday storm. It may very well get up to the strength of a Cat 4 yet and even a Cat3 at landfall will provide a large amount of storm surge and wind. A major hurricane is no event you should take lightly. Katrina came ashore as a Cat 3 and we saw what its weaker winds were able to do on the superdome etc etc

[GuerillaBlack]

New Orleans: Ghost Town

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

JB -

http://www.globalboiling.org/

Once you get past all the global warming paranoia, they have some great satellite/radar/temp info.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Guerilla - good to see those shots.

It was bumper to bumper on I10 yesterday on those cams.