Ike

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Honestly, as much as I thought it was extremely unlikely the more its looking like this storm is going to miss Florida all together and hit Cuba then end up in the Gulf. Its not looking very good right now and the farther south it gets the less time it has to ever regain strength before making a landfall.

Well, this would much ado about nothing if that happens. I kind of want to witness all this actually. I last read trop. storm winds by monday. guess we'll see. flight boards in a few minutes.

follow me at twitter.com/joeruiz

[BacktoBasics]

It better not come to Corpus

[Kevin Blackistone]

Now I've seen it all. Meterological sissy verbal slap fights on a Spurs forum.

[smeagol]

I kind of want to witness all this actually.

I was in Miami when Wilma hit after Katrina (the one that leveled Cancun). It hit Florida as a CAT 3. It is only cool if you are in a well-built house/building.

[BRHornet45]

No, but Gustav was a wuss hurricane. All hype.

yea Gustav was a wuss. I love the ignorance some people show. the oak tree that is sitting in my living room from that wussy hurricane proves it. all of baton rouge and areas around it got hit hard and most are still without power and will be for 1-3 more weeks.

[1369]

Just upgraded to a Cat 4. Looks like the Bahamas are going to take a direct hit.

Hurricane Ike has re-intensified, and now has Category 4-strength winds, according to the latest data from the Hurricane Hunters. Both an Air Force and a NOAA aircraft recorded surface winds of 135 mph this afternoon on the northeast side of Ike. Category 4 strength winds range from 135-155 mph. Infrared satellite loops show Ike is more symmetric now, with improved upper-level outflow to the north. Shear has fallen from 25 knots this morning to 15 knots this afternoon, allowing this intensification to occur.


The latest 12Z (8 am EDT) computer models foresee a probable direct hit by Ike on Grand Inagua Island in the Southeast Bahamas, with the Turks and Caicos Islands also getting hit hard. The eye is about 35 miles in diameter, so a region about 50 miles wide will feel Category 3+ hurricane winds in the Southeast Bahamas. These islands can expect a storm surge of 13-18 feet, and extreme damaging winds. Ike will pass 40-80 miles north of northwestern Haiti, bringing extreme flooding rains of 6-12" to the island of Hispaniola.

All of the major models agree that Ike will hit eastern Cuba on Sunday night. After this point, the models continue to diverge. A southern camp of models, the ECMWF and UKMET, take Ike across eastern Cuba and into the western Caribbean, then across the western tip of Cuba or Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. These models predict an eventual landfall near the Mexico/Texas border a week from now. This track would bring tropical storm conditions to the Cancun/Cozumel area beginning Tuesday afternoon or evening, with possible hurricane conditions by Wednesday morning.

The northern camp of models, including the GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, and HWRF, turn Ike west-northwest over Cuba, forecasting that Ike will pop off the coast of Cuba near the Florida Keys on Tuesday, then swing north-northwest. The northward turn is delayed in the current runs, putting Ike into the central Gulf of Mexico, or several hundred miles offshore the western Florida coast. The trough of pressure that pulls Ike to the north is expected to be weak, leaving Ike in a region of weak steering currents. A similar situation occurred in 1985, when Category 3 Hurricane Elena got stranded in the Gulf and wander offshore of the Florida Panhandle for several days. So far, the GFDL has done a good job with Ike, so I will continue to lean towards that track. The GFDL tracks Ike over Cuba until the storm pops off the coast south of the Keys, and intensifies it from a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane to a Category 3 hurricane as it passes 50 miles southwest of Key West. The GFDL brings Category 2 winds to Key West. The model then takes Ike north-northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico to an uncertain future.

[1369]

Not liking the looks of this model...

ECMWF Animation

[Buddy Holly]

Ike ready to put an ass whoopin' on someone else.



This time. In Hurricane form.

[MannyIsGod]

If this thing goes after NOLA then I'm convinced someone upstairs just does not like that city.

[GuerillaBlack]

If this thing goes after NOLA then I'm convinced someone upstairs just does not like that city.

Mother Nature must be pissed at New Orleans.

[smeagol]

If this thing goes after NOLA then I'm convinced someone upstairs just does not like that city.

This is as close as I have seen you mentioning the existence of a "superior being".

Then again, it could've been simply a figure of speach.

[GuerillaBlack]

It's looking less like a NOLA problem, and more of a Lake Charles-Beaumont-Houston-Corpus Christi problem. In other words, we don't know anything yet.

[RashoFan]

Standby to standby on this hurricane..."he" is on a crazy track..
I had a feeling he was coming into the GOM and not hitting staraight onto FL or the EC.

I think he is going to hit the Texas coast, H-town get ready to swim.

[MannyIsGod]

This is as close as I have seen you mentioning the existence of a "superior being".

Then again, it could've been simply a figure of speach.

I typically keep spiritual thoughts to myself (where they belong, IMO).

[MannyIsGod]

LOL the latest GFS runs bring it torwards South Texas. Joe you may have gone to Florida just to have the storm come back here. That'd be some .

[MannyIsGod]

LOL is all I can say.

[Manu20]

All I have to say is keep it away from south texas we already had enough with dolly.

[Manu20]

The Euro has Ike tracking all the texas coastline. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...090612!!!step/


According to the NWS in Brownsville it is very unlikely.

THE PATH OF HURRICANE IKE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TAKES THE STORM THROUGH THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE NHC TRACKS
THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF. AT THIS
TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT PATH HURRICANE IKE WILL TAKE
ONCE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER IKE ENTERS THE GULF. THE 12Z
MODEL RUN FROM THE ECMWF KEEPS IKE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF LA AND
DEVIATES FROM THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH TRACKS IKE INTO LA. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS PROBABLY AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO AND ITS OUTCOME IS
PARTIALLY INFLUENCED BY THE FORMATION OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THAT FORCES IKE TO TURN SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE. THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THIS RIDGE
FARTHER SOUTH.

WE WILL UPDATE YOU WITH THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IN THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE.

[Trainwreck2100]

yea Gustav was a wuss. I love the ignorance some people show. the oak tree that is sitting in my living room from that wussy hurricane proves it. all of baton rouge and areas around it got hit hard and most are still without power and will be for 1-3 more weeks.

And the news had us talking about the lost city of Atlantis. If Gustav was anything like we were led to believe all that should have been left was an oaktree. that reggie bush hurricane

[MannyIsGod]

The Euro has Ike tracking all the texas coastline. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20 America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008090612!!!step/


According to the NWS in Brownsville it is very unlikely.

The problem is that since that discussion both the following Euro and GFS runs have it off the Texas coast. I'm not saying thats where its going to end up just that with each model run that says thats the case it becomes more likely.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

LOL the latest GFS runs bring it torwards South Texas. Joe you may have gone to Florida just to have the storm come back here. That'd be some .

Yeah, that's what everybody's been telling me.

Might as well pimp where I'm working. We're on live right now until about 11 a.m. CDT.

http://www.local10.com/video/17401020/index.html

[MannyIsGod]

Joe if this does make landfall on the Texas Coast and you chase it to cover it you are taking me with you.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Joe if this does make landfall on the Texas Coast and you chase it to cover it you are taking me with you.

I'm 99.9 percent sure I wouldn't be chasing it myself, but aggregating coverage from the newsroom, especially if it were to land on the weekend.

[1369]

Latest models don't bode well for Texas...

[MannyIsGod]

I'm 99.9 percent sure I wouldn't be chasing it myself, but aggregating coverage from the newsroom, especially if it were to land on the weekend.

Pussy.