How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[ploto]

Obama will win California and NY and McCain would have won Texas anyway. You can not compare numbers across two different primaries- especially when the Democratic one was the only real race.

[MannyIsGod]

"His approach does have some structural problems…"

UH what does that mean?

It means exactly what it says, but does it mean what you want it to mean? You think that this somehow invalidates the data Nate and Sean are putting out? They have complete transparency on their methods and have almost the exact same results as the site you linked.

Whats more, Electoral-vote.com was incredibly accurate in the 2004 election. These sites and their statistical analysis are perfect (which is to say they have some structural problems) but that isn't to say the forecasts they provide are extremely accurate. It just means they aren't perfect.

If anyone has information to contradict what I've posted then by all means present it. If you have any numerical data to show why McCain is going to win certain states then by all means post it on here for us all to see. But otherwise pointing out that the analysis these sites do is not perfect in an attempt to discredit their forecasts shows an inherent lack of understanding of the way statistical modeling and simulations work.

[MannyIsGod]

I want to know how McCain is going to devote resources to win NY while doing the same for all of the other battleground states. States don't just turn on a dime. They take lots of time and effort and most importantly money. They also take a good effort on the ground which is something that McCain has not been building up nearly as well as the Obama campaign.

Sure, the RNC is saying it has money now, but it also has a royal asskicking in congressional races to deal with. They have to devote a good amount of money to that.

McCain and his campaign will have their hands full dealing with the current battle ground states without trying to add in huge markets like NY where they have virtualy no shot of winning.

[ducks]

just be sure to say obama is in trouble if that site changes after mccain kills him in debates

[florige]

just be sure to say obama is in trouble if that site changes after mccain kills him in debates

That shouldn't happen.

[Biernutz]

It means exactly what it says, but does it mean what you want it to mean? You think that this somehow invalidates the data Nate and Sean are putting out? They have complete transparency on their methods and have almost the exact same results as the site you linked.

Whats more, Electoral-vote.com was incredibly accurate in the 2004 election. These sites and their statistical analysis are perfect (which is to say they have some structural problems) but that isn't to say the forecasts they provide are extremely accurate. It just means they aren't perfect.

If anyone has information to contradict what I've posted then by all means present it. If you have any numerical data to show why McCain is going to win certain states then by all means post it on here for us all to see. But otherwise pointing out that the analysis these sites do is not perfect in an attempt to discredit their forecasts shows an inherent lack of understanding of the way statistical modeling and simulations work.

The information on fivethirtyeight was compiled on August 4---many things have happened since then. The Polls are only as good as the information going in. My main focus is things change --look at the Meta-analysis of the 2004 election where Sam Wang made a mistake and said Kerry would win.
Mistakes and unknowns can happen. Ask Harry Truman.

Did you read some of the follow up links in the paper? Check it out!

[MannyIsGod]

The information on fivethirtyeight was compiled on August 4---many things have happened since then. The Polls are only as good as the information going in. My main focus is things change --look at the Meta-analysis of the 2004 election where Sam Wang made a mistake and said Kerry would win.
Mistakes and unknowns can happen. Ask Harry Truman.

Did you read some of the follow up links in the paper? Check it out!

I'm not sure what you're talking about in regards to August 4th, but 538 updates their poll figures daily and runs simulations on a daily basis. The last update was today.

In any event, I prefer electoral-vote.com for a state by state breakdown. 538 is better for the national results and trends as well as accessible raw poll data.

[whottt]

I want to know how McCain is going to devote resources to win NY while doing the same for all of the other battleground states. States don't just turn on a dime. They take lots of time and effort and most importantly money. They also take a good effort on the ground which is something that McCain has not been building up nearly as well as the Obama campaign.

Sure, the RNC is saying it has money now, but it also has a royal asskicking in congressional races to deal with. They have to devote a good amount of money to that.

McCain and his campaign will have their hands full dealing with the current battle ground states without trying to add in huge markets like NY where they have virtualy no shot of winning.

Ok so it's a long shot. Still fun to think about.....


How about this...I have a feeling that by November, you will be voting for her. You let me know how it's going.

[Nbadan]

I want to know how McCain is going to devote resources to win NY while doing the same for all of the other battleground states. States don't just turn on a dime. They take lots of time and effort and most importantly money. They also take a good effort on the ground which is something that McCain has not been building up nearly as well as the Obama campaign.

Sure, the RNC is saying it has money now, but it also has a royal asskicking in congressional races to deal with. They have to devote a good amount of money to that.

McCain and his campaign will have their hands full dealing with the current battle ground states without trying to add in huge markets like NY where they have virtualy no shot of winning.

Nice breakdown Manny...finally a post worthy of this forum...I wish McSame would dump money into NY like Whott wants...he has virtually no chance to carry the state and would take away from states he needs to carry like Ohio, Florida, Colorado and maybe Arizona...

[whottt]

But he's not running against her- he is running against McCain.

Surely, you know that she will be campaigning for Obama in New York. Women voters are smarter than you think. Women who voted for Hillary for "legitimate" reasons are not drawn to Palin and will not vote for McCain.

I didn't say women were stupid. You assume I have an agenda and I don't. I'm not a party loyalist. We'll see what the women end up doing.

[MannyIsGod]

You want to see what states the campaigns feel are in play?

Take a look at where they are spending money.

[TheProfessor]

McCain will have a difficult time in the western toss-ups (Hispanics and the water issue). Florida and Michigan are extremely important for him - Obama couldn't build up his infrastructure in those states early, and there may still be pockets of resentment. What makes this map especially difficult for McCain is that he'll have to devote resources to places like Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, and Montana (where Barr and Paul are on the ballot), making the more traditional toss-ups a difficult proposition. It would be very impressive if he could overcome that.

[JoeChalupa]

It is going to get very interesting in the weeks ahead and I'll keep posting until the next election.

[PEP]

Who gives a about all that worthless data. Wasnt Gore and Kerry supposed to have the race locked up also, looks like the same data from the last two presidential elections.

Show me the data on who's going to win the "dead" vote this year, that's more interesting.

[Bartleby]

Show me the data on who's going to win the "dead" vote this year, that's more interesting.

That's got to be a lock for McCain since he's practically part of that demographic already.

[MannyIsGod]

Who gives a about all that worthless data. Wasnt Gore and Kerry supposed to have the race locked up also, looks like the same data from the last two presidential elections.

Show me the data on who's going to win the "dead" vote this year, that's more interesting.

Of course its bull data. It shows your boy getting his ass kicked. If you have better indicators of where the race is headed feel free to post them.

[possessed]

Easy, tiger. Let the debates play out.

[Clandestino]

since you guys love polls so much, mccain just overtook obama

[johnsmith]

Manny, if you only want to know whott's point of view, then ing pm him you condescending bag.

[Yonivore]

Post the numbers Clan...

USATODAY/GALLUP: 54-44 MCCAIN AMONG LIKELY VOTERS;
50-46 AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS.

[PEP]

Of course its bull data. It shows your boy getting his ass kicked. If you have better indicators of where the race is headed feel free to post them.

Pobresito, now your boy is getting his ass kicked according to those worthless polls. I still dont give a about them. But Im sure now that he's down in the polls you dont think those polls matter.

[MannyIsGod]

since you guys love polls so much, mccain just overtook obama

Post the numbers Clan...

USATODAY/GALLUP: 54-44 MCCAIN AMONG LIKELY VOTERS;
50-46 AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS.

Pobresito, now your boy is getting his ass kicked according to those worthless polls. I still dont give a about them. But Im sure now that he's down in the polls you dont think those polls matter.

How many electoral votes does someone win for the national vote?

Still waiting for a state by state breakdown that shows a realistic McCain win.

Its fun when the facts are all on your side.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny, if you only want to know whott's point of view, then ing pm him you condescending bag.

Why when I can post on the forum and get his point of view while getting a rise out of you at the same time?

[Gino]

How many electoral votes does someone win for the national vote?

Still waiting for a state by state breakdown that shows a realistic McCain win.

Its fun when the facts are all on your side.

Its very realistic to assume that he'll take Virginia and NC. If he also "keeps" Ohio, Florida and Indiana, then he's at 260. Give him Colorado and Nevada and he's at 274.

How is that unrealistic. All of these states are "swing" states that Bush carried in 04. Im giving Obama Iowa and New Mexico (that Bush won in 04).

[MannyIsGod]

Its very realistic to assume that he'll take Virginia and NC. If he also "keeps" Ohio, Florida and Indiana, then he's at 260. Give him Colorado and Nevada and he's at 274.

How is that unrealistic. All of these states are "swing" states that Bush carried in 04. Im giving Obama Iowa and New Mexico (that Bush won in 04).

You think its realistic to assume that in every state he's currently a toss up with Obama he's going to win all? Including those states that Obama is leading in the polls?

Ok, you're en led to believe thats realistic. I disagree.


Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
Virgina 13
North Carolina 15
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4