Ike

[PakiDan]

The problem is that since that discussion both the following Euro and GFS runs have it off the Texas coast. I'm not saying thats where its going to end up just that with each model run that says thats the case it becomes more likely.

Manny,

You know I like you, but the actual performance and trek of this hurricane just tore any percieved credibility your previous statements had to shreds... It did NOTHING you predicted it to do... Somewhere out there cry havoc is shrugging smuggly. Quite frankly I think it's time to be a man and admit you were wrong...

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Pussy.

you.

I gotta earn a paycheck... and if it happens Friday, there's no way they're letting me go from Big Game Coverage.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny,

You know I like you, but the actual performance and trek of this hurricane just tore any percieved credibility your previous statements had to shreds... It did NOTHING you predicted it to do... Somewhere out there cry havoc is shrugging smuggly. Quite frankly I think it's time to be a man and admit you were wrong...

I wasn't wrong Paki. If I you come to me with a set of dice and say Im' going to roll them, what numbers are going to land and I respond telling you that it is far more likely that it will land on anything but snake eyes and then it lands on snake eyes was I wrong? If this storm was so likely to enter the gulf given its starting la ude then why have no other storms ever taken this track? I know that everyone loves weather models now, but the fact is climatology still plays a huge roll in long term forcasting and it does so for a reason. That is because the odds are swayed in its favor.

I never said the storm was going to do any one particular thing, I said one particular course was more likely. I don't think I should apologize for the lack of others reading comprehension.

I never said it was impossible for the storm to end up in the Gulf, did I? Cry and I argued more over his assertion the storm was annular (it never was) and that the Gustav forcasting by the NHC was poor (It was actualy excellent) so tell me where I've been wrong Paki?

If you're going to call me out maybe you should explain why?

[LuvBones]

I wasn't wrong Paki.

I never said the storm was going to do any one particular thing, I said one particular course was more likely.

Now I could be wrong, but I think he's talking about these statements..

BTW latest GFS does curve Ike out to sea and does not make landfall on the East Coast much less take it into the Gulf.

I think the odds of this thing making it into the Gulf are really small. I think the odds of this storm hitting the East Coast are larger, but still small. By far the most likely scenario is a recurve out to sea.

Anyway, Ike is likely to get recurved out to sea by a trough the same way Hannah will. The models are already trending this way, but so far they've been pegging the high as too strong for this to happen. .

[MannyIsGod]

Ok. I'm not the GFS. There is one. Then I see the word likely and odds in the next 2. Like I said, I'm not going to apologize because people here fail at reading comprehension.

[smeagol]

Now I could be wrong, but I think he's talking about these statements..

Not sure what is it you are trying to prove with your post.

Manny said very clearly what the most likely path would be, not what the 100%, beyond any shred of doubt, accurate path would be.

Your post only reinforces Manny's statement.

[LuvBones]

Obviously Manny wouldn't say with 100% certainty what his prediction was.. that's why it's a prediction. My point was simply that his prediction was wrong (as Paki was saying). If that doesn't make sense then I guess I'm wrong. :shrugs

[MannyIsGod]

I guess you misunderstand what a prediction was since I didn't give a prediction. I gave what the odds of something happening were. If I say a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads that doesn't mean I'm saying its going to land on heads.

I even went as far to explain this to CH after my posts when he too jumped on me for my "prediction".

And CH and I weren't even arguing over what the path it would take was. We were arguing over whether or not Ike was an annular hurricane and whether or not Gustav was forecast correctly by the NHC.

But yeah, given where Ike is now I should apologize because the never made prediction that wasn't the center of the argument has proven false. Ok.

[BacktoBasics]

I guess you misunderstand what a prediction was since I didn't give a prediction. I gave what the odds of something happening were. If I say a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads that doesn't mean I'm saying its going to land on heads.

I even went as far to explain this to CH after my posts when he too jumped on me for my "prediction".

And CH and I weren't even arguing over what the path it would take was. We were arguing over whether or not Ike was an annular hurricane and whether or not Gustav was forecast correctly by the NHC.

But yeah, given where Ike is now I should apologize because the never made prediction that wasn't the center of the argument has proven false. Ok.

Make a prediction already so I can make plans to evacuate before the rush.

[smeagol]

I guess you misunderstand what a prediction was since I didn't give a prediction. I gave what the odds of something happening were. If I say a coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads that doesn't mean I'm saying its going to land on heads.

I even went as far to explain this to CH after my posts when he too jumped on me for my "prediction".

And CH and I weren't even arguing over what the path it would take was. We were arguing over whether or not Ike was an annular hurricane and whether or not Gustav was forecast correctly by the NHC.

But yeah, given where Ike is now I should apologize because the never made prediction that wasn't the center of the argument has proven false. Ok.

At a minimum, you lose the snowflake underneath your avatar . . .

[SpursWoman]

I mean seriously, Manny, WTF? Why didn't you tell anyone 2 weeks ago that Ike was going to throw a massive wave at this building?! What the 's wrong with you?! You suck at predictions! Keep your day job!!

[1369]

Make a prediction already so I can make plans to evacuate before the rush.

The GFS has made one...



37 gonna be backed up like a if this holds true...

[Shelly]

I mean seriously, Manny, WTF? Why didn't you tell anyone 2 weeks ago that Ike was going to throw a massive wave at this building?! What the 's wrong with you?! You suck at predictions! Keep your day job!!

There goes my timeshare. Thanks, Manny. Thanks a lot.

[MannyIsGod]

You guys should have listened to CH. He was predicting that wave for weeks.

[JudynTX]

Manny..........is Ike heading towards us?

[BacktoBasics]

The GFS has made one...



37 gonna be backed up like a if this holds true...

you're fooling yourself if you think I can make sense of that picture.

I need Manny's prediction not some accredited weather source.

Where's it going Manny?

[BacktoBasics]

looks like a penis sticking out the left side of the country

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

looks like a penis sticking out the left side of the country

That's where baby storms come from B2B. When a high pressure system and a low pressure system love each other very much...well you know how it goes from there. Why else do you think we name the storms?

[hater]

looks like a penis sticking out the left side of the country

Means New Orleans is about to get ed

[Ginofan]

you're fooling yourself if you think I can make sense of that picture.

I need Manny's prediction not some accredited weather source.

Where's it going Manny?

You see that dark orange blob thingie sitting between Brownsville and Galveston (guestimation) that's the hurricane...that's where they predict it to hit.

[Manu20]

I think Ike is really starting to like Texas.

[lebomb]

If it comes towards San Antonio........we will see tropical storm winds, tornadoes, and a of alot of rain. Oh well......there goes the weekend.

[BacktoBasics]

What the happened to thing hitting up North or LA. I can't have this thing coming south like this.

[Manu20]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2008


an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft currently investigating Ike
recently reported a central pressure of 965 mb. Data from the
aircraft indicates that the core of Ike has been disrupted due to
land interaction...and the winds have decreased. The initial
intensity is lowered to 70 kt...but this might be generous.
However...if the center remains over warm waters...restrengthening
could occur before its second landfall in central or western Cuba.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 36 hours
until Ike moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and away from
Cuba. Once Ike moves into the Gulf...environmental conditions look
favorable for strengthening and the official forecast calls for
intensification. The new official intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory beyond 48 hr.


Ike has been wobbling westward throughout the day and our best
estimate of the motion is now 275/12. Track models are tightly
clustered about a general west-northwest track during the next
couple of days taking the center of Ike along or just south of Cuba
tonight...then into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. Once
in the Gulf...Ike could slow down as a shortwave trough moves over
the eastern United States and weakens the ridge to the north of the
hurricane. The trough is forecast to quickly swing by and be
replaced by a mid-level ridge over the southern United States. Such
a pattern should force Ike to turn more westward. Dynamical models
have been trending towards a stronger ridge at days 3 through
5...and nearly all of the guidance has shifted southward. Since
the models are in reasonably good agreement...the official forecast
is also shifted southward but still lies north of the dynamical
model consensus.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 08/2100z 21.4n 79.7w 70 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 21.8n 81.4w 80 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 22.6n 83.2w 80 kt...inland
36hr VT 10/0600z 23.6n 84.8w 75 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 24.4n 86.0w 85 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 25.5n 89.0w 95 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 27.0n 92.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 13/1800z 29.0n 96.0w 95 kt...inland


$$
forecaster Rhome/Avila

[Shelly]

B2B, I just saw on CNN that they're thinking it's possible that the Ikester could hit west of Galveston.

GET OUT NOW!!!!