How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Gino]

You think its realistic to assume that in every state he's currently a toss up with Obama he's going to win all?


Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
Virgina 13
North Carolina 15
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4

Id be absolutely shocked if either of the Dakotas are swing states. Same with Montana.

Funny that you name those but not Michigan or New Mexico.

I guess those "swing states" don't count?

RCP (which is largely viewed as the best source considering they use all scientific polls) is currently showing the following states as "toss ups":

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Michigan
Colorado
Nevada
New Mexico
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Indiana

The majority of these states are "bush states". States that Bush carried in 04.

That means that he only has to keep Bush states to win. Who knows what will happen if he starts taking "Kerry" states such as Michigan.

Regardless, its very plausible that McCain keeps Ohio, Florida, Virginai, Colorado, Nevada, NC and Indiana.

Thus, he could win the presidency without stealing a single blue state and even give up a few red states such as Iowa and New Mexico.

Any more mathematical scenarios you want to rule out?

[MannyIsGod]

Id be absolutely shocked if either of the Dakotas are swing states. Same with Montana.

Funny that you name those but not Michigan or New Mexico.

I guess those "swing states" don't count?

RCP (which is largely viewed as the best source considering they use all scientific polls) is currently showing the following states as "toss ups":

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Michigan
Colorado
Nevada
New Mexico
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Indiana

The majority of these states are "bush states". States that Bush carried in 04.

That means that he only has to keep Bush states to win. Who knows what will happen if he starts taking "Kerry" states such as Michigan.

Regardless, its very plausible that McCain keeps Ohio, Florida, Virginai, Colorado, Nevada, NC and Indiana.

Thus, he could win the presidency without stealing a single blue state and even give up a few red states such as Iowa and New Mexico.

Any more mathematical scenarios you want to rule out?

Obama is leading North Dakota in over half the polls and is only down by four in most of the polls for South Dakota. A Republican hasn't carried MI in any of the last four cycles (not sure if it happened before that - I didn't really care enough to look) and Obama has a solid lead in every poll in that state but for posterity sake lets include it. NM has a sizeable hispanic population (who haven't been breaking for McCain) and a popular govenor who is going to campaign like crazy for Obama. Obama is also leading there in every poll. But once again, we'll include that state in the toss ups as well.

So - if we go by this then Obama has a current EV lead of 238 to 165 and means Obama has to gain 32 EVs to win this race.

That means McCain has absolutely no margin for error. He can't lose more than one big state because if he does then he's going to lose the election. And this is IF we give him a reasonable chance to win MI which I still maintain is unlikely at best.

I think unrealistic was the wrong word to use because obviously McCain has avenues to victory but the fact is he's polling behind in most of the states he needs to carry. Lots of people will say that polls don't matter but if anyone is underperforming in these polls it is Obama, not McCain.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, for those of you ing about how inaccurate these polls can be, the site I've been linking for most of this data performed incredibly well in the 2004 election.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/track.html

It had problems with maybe 3 or four states depending on the algorithm used. The only state that the got really wrong was Florida. I've conceded Florida is McCain's to lose and I don't think Obama needs it anyway.

There is still plenty of time before the election and either candidate could do something incredibly stupid. If Obama comes out on Good Morning America and wears a turbin then he's likely going to lose. But I don't see how anyone can slice it up by saying anything other than McCain is currently playing from behind.

[boutons_]

"either candidate could do something incredibly stupid"

count on candidate McSame's team to fear-and-smear incredibly vile. Steve Schmidt probably has 100s of slimy lies and dirty tricks to throw at the Dems.

eg, 600K voters could be caged in OH. There will be widespread voter intimidation by the Repugs, and there is the incredibly revealing situation with voting machines, indicating USA's elections are no better than 3rd world election stealing.

[fyatuk]

Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Montana 3
North Dakota 3
South Dakota 3
Indiana 11
Ohio 20
Virgina 13
North Carolina 15
Florida 27
New Hampshire 4

McCain has been leading most often by a statistically irrelevant margin in Colorado, Nevada.

McCain has had a healthy lead in every poll, except the last two in Montana. Obama had a fluke lead followed by McCain taking an irrelevent lead. Last poll is in July, so pollsters don't think it's in play.

Neither Dakota is going to Obama. In the one he actually has a lead in, he just took it and it doesn't include either convention which McCain seems to be getting a slightly bigger bounce. In SD he's never had a lead, but it hasn't been repolled since July, which means the pollsters don't even believe its in play.

In Indiana, McCain has been leading consistently, and while it's down to irrelevent, the most recent poll includes a partial Obama bounce.

Ohio has been a true swing state flipping back and forth. McCain has had the lead more often though.

Virginia has been flipping as well. Neither has had a relevant lead since May, and the polls have not updated since before the conventions.

McCain has had a permanent lead in NC, though lately it's been irrelevant.

Florida has pretty consistently gone to McCain as well. Even you have admitted that's pretty much McCain's to lose.

New Hampshire has been consistently Obama by borderline irrelevant margins. It's Obama's to lose.

Add in Michigan since Obama has mostly had statistically irrelevant leads there. And McCain had leads early. It'll be interesting to see post bounce numbers in Michigan.

NM is probably going to Obama, and Richardson probably has a lot to do with that.

No other states seem to be even remotely in play.

McCain can easily win all these states you mention except New Hampshire and has an outside shot at stealing Michigan. This is all from looking at the polling data posted on your own site.

As I mentioned, most polls are either pre-convention or include DNC but not RNC.

[Supergirl]

http://www.demconwatchblog.com/

They've been tracking states for months now. They've currently got Obama leading 296-242, with Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado currently listed as too close to call.

[JoeChalupa]

With the polls showing McCain moving past Obama it will be very interesting how the State polls reflect his bounce which seems to be a strong and steady one.

[johnsmith]

Why when I can post on the forum and get his point of view while getting a rise out of you at the same time?

It's not really a rise so much as it is a roll of my eyes and say out loud "what a bag" every time I see your name attached to a post.

[MannyIsGod]

It's not really a rise so much as a rise.

I know.

[johnsmith]

I'm a huge bag

I know.

[whottt]

Hey Manny...McCain is going after California. He's opening up campaign offices there and he's going to send Palin there.

Now even I wouldn' have called that one. Not in a million years.


The only way he does that is if he's getting an inordinate amount of contributions and interest from that state all of a sudden...

There must be a huge interest there for him to make this move.


Oh yeah and once all those women find out she's a not actually a crazed pro-lifer out to overturn Roe V Wade...the interest is only going to increase.

[whottt]

Your figures, much like your logic, are off.

Hillary had 1.46m

Obama had 1.36m

McCain had 701k.

My bad....I got the Texas Numbers mixed with the California numbers. It was in California that she pulled over 2 million votes.


And I don't think my logic is wrong about her having the ability to flip Texas either...like I said, every woman I know voted for Hillary.


I'll tell you what hurt Obama in Texas too...his obnoxious supporters.

My brother hasn't voted Republican since about 1984 and he hates W. After working an Obama rally and seeing the supporters he drew, he said there was no way he could vote for Obama.

[PixelPusher]

My brother hasn't voted Republican since about 1984 and he hates W. After working an Obama rally and seeing the supporters he drew, he said there was no way he could vote for Obama.

GGA is your brother?

[fyatuk]

I'll tell you what hurt Obama in Texas too...his obnoxious supporters.

Obama made me not vote in the Democrat primary. I actually was going to vote for him in the Primaries (even though no way I'd vote for him in the general), but I got about 15 calls from his campaign in 6 days and I said screw that.

[whottt]

Read it and weep:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

McCain is now leading in every major National Poll except for 2, and on those 2 he is tied with Obama.

The Largest Swing is the CNN Gallup...19 point swing in just over 5 days.


And he's made nice gains in Michigan and PA as well...for those interested.


And a lot of those polls don't include the full RNC.


She's like Elvis...and McCain, he's not Bush.

[Findog]

McCain will win the following states, electoral votes noted, that Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004:

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arkansas 6
Idaho 4
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Nebraska 5
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
Tennessee 11
Utah 5
Wyoming 3

McCain will probably win the following states that Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004:

Arizona 10
Missouri 11
Texas 34
West Virginia 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Georgia 15
Indiana 11
South Carolina 8
North Carolina 15
Montana 3

That gives him a total of 208, needing 62 to clinch 270.

Obama will win the following states that Kerry and Gore carried:

California 55
Connecticut 7
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Iowa 7*
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Minnesota 10
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11
Delaware 3
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Wisconsin 10

* Bush won in 2004

Obama will probably win the following states:

Michigan 17
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5

Bush took New Mexico in 2004 and New Hampshire in 2000. This gives Obama 264 electoral votes, needing only 6 to clinch.

That leaves the following five swing states, carried by Bush in both 2000 and 2004, that will decide the election:

Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Ohio 20
Virginia 13
Florida 27

Here is what to keep in mind when watching on election night:

∙ Early signs of McCain victory: GOP pick up of Pennsylvania or Michigan

∙ Early signs of Obama victory: Dem pick up of Virginia, Florida or Ohio

∙ Florida, Ohio and Virginia will be called earlier in the evening. If Obama picks up any one one of these three states, then he is in the driver's seat for the Presidency.

∙ If McCain sweeps these three states, the election results will hinge on Colorado and Nevada being called later on, assuming no new pickups for either party.

∙ Palin will help McCain consolidate certain states that have traditionally been safe GOP but are still in play for Obama. This will help McCain avoid having to expend money and resources to hold onto safe GOP states.

∙ Obama will not be outspent, has a far superior grassroots organization, and has run a very focused and disciplined campaign. There is substantial
reason to believe that the prospect of a black President will lead to historically record-high turnout in the African-American community. In
addition, his campaign doesn't make many mistakes and has largely managed to avoid shooting themselves in the foot. The race is his to lose. The dynamics and enthusiasm gap favor Obama at this point.

∙ McCain can only win by using Idiocracy-style politics and making this about personalities instead of issues. The Republicans have had great success winning elections this way in the past, so McCain can't be counted out yet.

[Findog]

Gallup poll is an outlier and can't be trusted.

[Findog]

The only thing that matters is Ohio and Florida. McCain needs to win both, Obama only one of those.

Actually, assuming that so far Obama has managed to add New Mexico and Iowa to Kerry's 2004 total, that leaves him 6 electoral votes shy of winning. He can take Colorado and let McCain have both Florida and Ohio.

[whottt]

Gallup poll is an outlier and can't be trusted.

Whatever makes you feel better man, but a 19 point swing is telling, no matter the margin for error. You guys can post all the stuff you want but it's not going to change anyones mind once they've decided who to vote for.



And McCain is going after California as well...Palin will begin speaking there on September 26th.



Everything is in play....you guys just don't realize it yet, because you're too far to the left. The entire country does not share your hardwired POV.

And McCain is not Bush...

[Findog]

Whatever makes you feel better man, but a 19 point swing is telling, no matter the margin for error.

There was no 19 point swing. There aren't enough undecided voters for such a swing in either direction.

And McCain is going after California as well...Palin will begin speaking there on September 26th.

Good. I hope he wastes money and resources there.

Everything is in play....

Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia are in play for both candidates. Obama has picked up New Mexico and Iowa. Everything else is the same vis a vis Kerry/Bush and Obama/McCain

you guys just don't realize it yet, because you're too far to the left. The entire country does not share your hardwired POV.

Typical. I wasn't even discussing issues or ideology, just analyzing the electoral map.

And McCain is not Bush...

That's right. He only belongs to the same party and votes for his agenda the overwhelming majority of the time.

[whottt]

Colorado, Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia are in play for both candidates. Obama has picked up New Mexico and Iowa. Everything else is the same vis a vis Kerry/Bush and Obama/McCain

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-400.html

Typical. I wasn't even discussing issues or ideology, just analyzing the electoral map.

Well #1 I already know your ideology....regardless of whether or not you are discussing it here and now.

#2. You don't realize that map isn't uptodate...lots of things have changed, that's what you don't see.

Even the National Polls don't show the full impact of the RNC yet.

That's right. He only belongs to the same party and votes for his agenda the overwhelming majority of the time.

That's actually not really true...you should stop believing what you are told and research your own stuff.

Matter of fact, you ought to go look at McCain and Obama's platforms recently. There's not much difference between them now that Obama has said the surge was a resounding success and is saying he won't rescind the Bush tax cuts right now.


His whole economic platform was based on rescinding those cuts and raising coroporate taxes.


You aren't running against Bush Cheney...and the attacks that worked against them, that never actually worked and instead actually got them re-elected, are definitely not going to work now.

Bush and Cheney were two of the most unlkeable and uncharismatic politicians in American history, and they got re-lected for one reason only...because the Democrats were running on a completely ignorant immediate pull out platform.

Ya'll gave America no choice but to vote for them.

McCain and Palin are much more likeable, and easier to vote for....it's not even close.


Every time you say they're just are like Bush...a moderate goes, no, they really aren't...and decides to vote against you.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...toral-map.html

New post this evening about new polls released and how they help/hinder each candidate. Good and bad news for both.

[Biernutz]

Many pollsters now use on-line polls. The respondents aren't selected randomly. Here's a link to the story as it's a bit long. Can you trust the polls for good info now?

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...8086641658.htm

[whottt]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...toral-map.html

New post this evening about new polls released and how they help/hinder each candidate. Good and bad news for both.

Awesome...did you notice freaking Washington State is about to be in play? +4

Like I said...States that no one is expecting to be in play are going to come into play.

[MannyIsGod]

Awesome...did you notice freaking Washington State is about to be in play? +4

Like I said...States that no one is expecting to be in play are going to come into play.

Yeah but the data also supports Florida being more in play for Obama. Did you see the results there?