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I wouldn't leave till it was 48 hours out. At that point even if they predict a hit and its off a little I'm still safe. I'm not going to ride out the edge of a storm.
He MIGHT be able to get ONE in that Vette.
I wouldn't leave till it was 48 hours out. At that point even if they predict a hit and its off a little I'm still safe. I'm not going to ride out the edge of a storm.
I hate to do it but the vette is probably going to be left behind since I have full coverage on it.
Drop it off in a parking garage on the way out of town.
The last big hurricane to hit Rockport, I was fishing the night before until 1 a.m. and it took 7 hours to get back to S.A.:
It really depends. Some hurricanes have widely divergent models that make a clear landfall path difficult to ascertain. This one has been rapidly narrowing though. I haven't had a chance to look at the latest data, as my internet was down yesterday.
You're right though, the aftermath will likely be far worse than the actual storm. I have friends in Louisiana who are just now getting power back and say people are getting in fistfights over bread. There are no supplies and because it's not national news the feds don't feel compelled to help out too much even after telling people they can go back to their homes.
Still though, I would not recommend ANYONE staying in the path of a category 3 hurricane. That's a minimal tornado that's a couple hundred miles wide (though the worst of the winds obviously won't be, the duration of wind can be lethal) and it should be treated as such.
3 days out the average error is within 100nm. We're still a bit more than 3 days out from landfall I think, but its getting really really close. This is the NHC forcast track though, not any particular model.
I still think it's going further south but they could still get hammered with the tidal surge...Thats the real killer in these storms anyway...An 8-10 foot tidal surge could wipe Port Aransas right off the map.
Even as it moves inland, it can trigger tornadoes. Correct?
Gustav triggered over 50 tornados once it hit land. That's horrifying to imagine.
Correct. I don't remember it happening, but apparently there was a tornado over by Bab /De Zavala way back in the day due to tropical storm.
hmmm....maybe now is a good time to clean out that hall closet!
If it makes its way to Corpus with a direct hit is this more likely to move west or south vs. moving on into SA?
Heres the 2:00 model updates. doesn't look good.
Did metmike18xx write this post for you? Any meteorologist who called Ike annular is piss poor at what they do. But I tell you what. Why don't we wait for the NHC post season write up on the storm. If they make any mention of Ike being an annular storm you can change my le to anything you want.These "ridiculous arguments" you talk about were being espoused by individuals with more meteorology education than you or I have, Manny. I saw the points they made and agreed with them. Ike didn't retain annular characteristics for more than 12-14 hours, but they were there. No hurricane to my knowledge has been annular for the duration of it's lifetime. By the time our disagreement had picked up steam, Ike was already returning to standard garden-variety hurricane.
It's interesting that you would use "prediction" to absolve yourself of anything you say. So to be clear, you cannot be wrong, because you left a chance (however small) of yourself to be wrong when forecasting a system? Despite the fact that it did in fact make it into the Gulf, you're still right and I'm wrong because you made a supposedly obvious call? If only sports bookies were afforded the same kind of leeway when betting on the Monday Night Football game!
And if it was so unlikely that Ike would go where he has, then why is there an entire thread full of posts on Ike in the accuweather forums stating precisely why he wouldn't curve out to the Atlantic? Go look it up. They aren't just pissing into the wind to see the color of their own urine over there. Of course, with a name like mike18xx, how much could they know?
I've been as diplomatic as possible about this and have even restrained from posting in this thread for a while. However, since you are going to continue calling me out, I'm going to respond that you are not the only person in the internet qualified to talk about weather and forecasting. If you want to continue being a to me, then by all means go for it, but it's becoming quite clear to everyone else here exactly what just happened: Ike is in the Gulf, and you are getting seriously defensive. Chill out, it's just a hurricane. They're hard as to predict anyway and without the models we would likely all be taking shots in the dark. If the high shifts to the East faster, you end up making the call and I look like I have no clue what I'm talking about. I don't see a reason to take it personally. Then again, I don't mind being wrong very much... that happens too frequently for me to get upset about.
Having said all that, Manny and I are big boys. You guys making comments about it being a " fight" and so on, let me remind you: You're posting on an internet forum about a basketball team, in a thread about weather, trying to act like a tough guy. You're really getting it down pat there. It does not make you cooler when you respond to a thread that's far over your head with, "omg itz teh Nturnet u guyz r gay". But hey, if that's what boosts your self-confidence....
You're right on the next subject; I can't be right or wrong in a situation where I didn't make a prediction. I didn't say you were wrong in this situation, did I? My assertion of you being wrong was in no way related to you saying it was going to get into the Gulf. It was completely related to your arguments over the structure of Ike and the forecast of Gustav. I made that extremely clear in my posts and have continued to do so. That you, Paki, and Luvbones can't discern that is not of my concern. If you want to continue the Sports bookie analogy keep in mind I never placed a bet on the game I merely gave you the pregame odds. Its like me telling you the Spurs are a 6:1 favorite to win the next game and you telling me I'm wrong when they don't. Do you see how foolish that is?
As for metmike, why does this guy have any credibility? I know you keep comparing him to me and my name, but I wouldn't expect you to try to convince anyone of a point using something I posted and reference my screen name. I never CLAIMED to be a credible source on the subject and pointing that out doesn't automatically lend your chosen source credibility.
I got defensive with Paki because I thought him calling me out was completely out of line. Of course when I defend myself It shows that while I'm a know it all who is condescending I also have a low self esteem. Its great, I'm labeled an egomaniac with low self esteem by our in house psychologists. Probably stayed at a holiday inn express.
Anyway, I did notice that you weren't posting in the thread and I agree I was over the top with the insults against you. For the most part I think you're an intelligent person who makes good weather posts but I found (and still find) your annular arguments ridiculous as well as your analysis of the Gustav forecast. But hey, just like I never made a prediction on where Ike was going, I never claimed to be anything but a head.
Oh yeah that happened in '88 or 89' I think it was from hurricane Gilbert ...IIRC
A tornando went IN BETWEEN the 2 hospitals in MEDCTR...University and the VA....
that was some major pucker factor right there.
On a note with evacuations, I don't think everyone has to leave a hurricane landfall area unless its a 4 or 5. I do think if you're in any type of low lying area or non sturdy structure then you should go. That being said most modern homes that are not in immediate danger from storm surge are reasonably safe to ride out 1,2 and 3s. The majority of the real threat from hurricanes are not the winds but the storm surge.
Tornadoes are an issue with landfalling storms, but the tornadoes that spawn are usually extremely weak and short lived. Typically they will not destroy a modern house but they will leave it with roof damage.
There's maybe 10 modern houses in Corpus.
Well then I guess the richers don't have to leave.
Corpus is strange. Its not segregated like SA. Some nice homes scattered pretty much everywhere inbetween the junk. Then the South is starting to develop like SA's northside did.
BTW great melting job by all. Keep up the work.
Forget what I said earlier about getting hosed in the rain gauge...
Heres a good read about the hurricane of 1919 that followed an eerily similar track in the same time of year.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/docs/res...919/index.html
well, based on the 2 o'clock update it looks like I need to get my windshield wipers fixed.
B2B just stay tuned dude. I honestly don't believe its going to be as bad as the media machine is making it out to be, but you just have to be aware of what is actually going on. Its a large broad storm area wise but that doesn't mean its going to be a huge killer storm when it makes landfall. I have no idea how it will effect winter Texans, but those mother ers have to go SOMEWHERE and I promise you that the places where the money goes get fixed first so I doubt their facilities or whatever the those northern blue hairs use will get attention right away.
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