Reply With Quote
WA will stay with the Dems.
Fivethirtyeight is pretty intelligent reading. Talks about how the RNC made some red states redder and some blue states bluer, also indicates which swings are most important.
WI and MI are important defense states for Obama now. Florida is slipping a bit for McCain.
WA will stay with the Dems.
Yeah and Ohio shows McCain up by 7....way more gains for McCain than Obama.
And BTW, some of these states haven't been polled since mid-July...
LOL
Well there was bad news in there for Obama without a doubt, but I really do think its was mostly a wash and the status quo benefits Obama.
Am I the only one that finds editing quote boxes incredibly rude?
538.com says it seems to have shifted the map around slightly and gave McCain an expected boost. Also that this could be the highest M-P go. We'll see.
Every pollster I've seen interviewed says you won't see the full bump from the RNC until mid-week.
It's concievable McCain could be up 15 points in some National Polls by mid-week...no way in that is good news for Obama...I want to see a professional national poll showing a winner of the Presidential election being down by 15.
Besides...the smears are having a complete and total backlash.
Everyone sees this woman and knows she's not a typical politican...the Dems trying to put Washington dirt on her is going to fool no one.
There will be no 3 day averages at any point in any daily national poll that show McCain up 15 points. None.
When McCain isn't up by 15 points mid-week you're welcome to suck my .
Convention bounces happen right away and cycle slowly out over weeks, although the highest point comes right away. Three-day rolling polls are already showing a fade in that regard.
I expect some Palin bounce from the kid gloves treatment she gets from ABC.
She's not a typical politician because she's actually kind of an idiot. Did you see that Fanny/Freddy quote? Good lord.
Nah, the ads will have an impact. McCain has already had to run away from his experience thing, instead trying to steal 'change' from Obama. If they lose their 'reformers of the GOP... within the GOP' meme, they'll have to try something new.
Whottt something is up with those Rasmusen polls in Ohio. They are consistently showing McCain with a large lead in the state. The last 3 are +7, +5 and +10. I don't know if its more inline than the other polls, but its definitely an outlier.
No. Its childish and snide. But everyone seems to pride themselves on their ability to "FIFY" around here.
BTW, there hasnt been one debate yet. All of these number being bandied about are well and good, but IMO, they arent indicating anything until after the first debate.
Once the first debate happens (9-26), then these polls and figures will have real bearing and the real-time, up-to-date results will be more indicative of current front-runner.
Until then, I think this is an excercise in "Which way is the wind blowing today?"
It's true that McCain isn't exactly George W. Bush, but he is from the in bent party, and it is very easy to demonstrate that he and Bush agree on far more things than they disagree on. So for that reason, I don't expect any Kerry states to turn red. Obama might have to play a little defense in his ground operations to keep Michigan and Pennsylvania in his column, but it's highly unlikely McCain picks up any Kerry states.
Iowa and New Mexico have consistently polled in Obama's favor outside of the margin for error, so much so that Iowa is now practically a safe state for Obama. I expect him to pick up those two Bush 2004 states, bringing his electoral vote total to 264.
I expect McCain to hold onto the following Bush 04 states: Bama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. That's 134 EV.
The following states have recently been lighter shades of red when it comes to polling, but I think the selection of Palin slams the door shut on Obama winning the following Bush 2004 states: Georgia, Missouri, South Dakota, West Virginia and North Carolina. Montana, Indiana and North Dakota are all Bush 2004 states that Obama is faring pretty well in, but I don't know if I expect that to last, so I'll go ahead and put them in McCain's column. But they are just as likely to turn blue as Pennsylvania and Michigan are to to turn red.
So that gets McCain to 200 and Obama at 264. That leaves the following swingiest of swing states:
Colorado (9), Florida (27), Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Virginia (13).
If I'm Obama, I might be tempted to concede Ohio and pour everything into Florida. Of course, conceding Ohio means McCain can pull out some of his money and resources too, so maybe it's best to open up as many fronts as possible since Obama's ground operation is better than McCain's. Of those five, Obama needs to pick up 6 electoral votes. He's polling ahead in Nevada and Colorado, and it's anybody's state in Florida and Virginia.
It's Obama's race to lose.
She still has a couple of months to go gaffe-free before that means anything.
We'll see if she can hold up her appeal after the honeymoon is over.
Personally, I think she is a bit of a nutter, but time will tell.
Palin will win this one for the Republicans and I don't see a democrat winning the White House until 2016 at the earliest.
Looks like the door has definitely slammed for Obama in North Carolina!
RALEIGH (WTVD) -- In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, September 09, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.
In 3 previous SurveyUSA NC tracking polls, McCain had led by 8, 5, and 4 points. Today: 20. McCain has gained ground in every demographic group. Among men, McCain led by 9 last month, 27 today. Among women, Obama led by 2 last month, trails by 12 today. McCain holds 9 of 10 Republican voters; Obama holds 3 of 4 Democratic voters; independents, who were split last month, break today crisply for McCain, where, in the blink of an eye, he is up by 25.
The following was asked of 671 likely voters (more data on collection listed at the bottom):
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
58% McCain (R)
38% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided
The Results of a SurveyUSA Election Poll
Geography Surveyed: North Carolina
Data Collected: 09/06/2008 - 09/08/2008
McCain is now in front among the educated and less educated, among the affluent and less affluent. He's polling at 64% in Coastal Carolina (up from 57%), at 60% in Charlotte (up from 53%), and at 54% in Raleigh / Greensboro (up from 44%). Pro-Life voters backed McCain 2:1 last month, 4:1 this month.
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 North Carolina adults 09/06/08 - 09/08/08. All interviews were completed after the Labor Day weekend, and after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. Of the 900 adults, 783 were registered to vote; of them, 671 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election. North Carolina has 15 Electoral College votes. In bent Republican President George W. Bush carried the state by 12 points in 2004 and by 13 points in 2000.
(Copyright ©2008 WTVD-TV/DT. All Rights Reserved.)
I'm thinking the more everybody sees, the more they like. The interview with Gibson is gonna be the harbinger. If she pulls that off favorably; Katie bar the door.
This is actually good news for Obama, considering. 20 point wins in the South means Obama could win the electoral vote, and lose the popular by a sizeable number; something I wouldn't have thought possible.
Would be ironic.
Idiot Republicans are fun to watch. You do realize that Obama wins electorally at this point in the race right? McCain has significant ground to cover.
This is assuming Obama doesn't retake the momentum his way, which we all know will inevitably happen. How long have you all followed politics?
Its not good news. I get what you're saying but its not good news.
The interview with Gibson is going to have less attention paid to it than people realize. What day is the interview?
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
