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[Findog]

McCain is going to clean house come November!!!

I. Your celebration of McCain's victory is not just premature, it is probably entirely mistaken. My opinion is that Obama still looks likely to win the election, for the following reasons.

1. Obama still isn't behind in polls in a single state that Kerry won in 2004. That means that all he needs to win the election is either Ohio or Florida or a combination of two or three Rocky Mountain states.

A. He's liable to win Ohio because the Democrats are in charge of the election process this time instead of Republicans. That means there won't be eight hour lines in black neighborhoods in Cleveland, won't be 250,000 ballots of (mostly) Democrats that won't get counted, and won't be any Republican hackers manipulating electronic voting machines. He's also liable to win Ohio because the economy there has hit the skids hard. He's also liable to win Ohio for the same reasons that Democrats have taken over the state, namely that Republicans have become the party of Ohio corruption.

B. He's also liable to win several Rocky Mountain states, because John McCain isn't going to win anywhere near 40% of the Hispanic vote, like Bush the Younger did. Indeed, he'll be lucky to win 30%. That will cost him Colorado and Nevada, not just New Mexico. That will be enough for an Obama win even if he loses Ohio. Karl Rove himself has made the observation that McCain can't win the election without 40% of the Hispanic vote.

C. The same thing that could kill McCain in the Rocky Mountain West could kill him in Florida. While I grant that McCain will do better among Cubans than among the rest of the Hispanic community in the United States, the at ude of Republicans about immigration of Spanish-speaking people may harm him in Florida as well. Considering how close Florida has been in the last two elections, and how much of the Hispanic vote has to go to McCain to keep him compe ive, his problem in Florida is more serious than most would acknowledge.

2. National poll numbers are deceptive. With the choice of Palin, McCain has assured that the Bush base will vote for him. Thus, his numbers in states like Nebraska or Idaho, Georgia or Mississippi, have gone up substantially. If McCain's rise in the national polls is based on an improvement of his standing in such states, then it is entirely meaningless, since McCain would have had to win those states to be compe ive in any event. Whether he wins them by 55% to 45% or by 70% to 30% doesn't make any difference. In 2000, Bush the Younger won even though he lost the popular vote, and in 2004, Kerry would have won the presidency with 200,000 more votes in Ohio even as he lost the national popular vote by 3%. The size of a Republican victory in Texas, like the size of a Democratic victory in California, may affect national poll numbers but don't affect who wins the overall election.

3. John McCain is scheduled for three debates with Barack Obama before the election, only one of which will be conducted in a format that McCain is any good with. The debates killed Richard Nixon in 1960, killed Jimmy Carter in 1980, and will in all likelihood kill John McCain this year. If he could get through the debates just reminding people that he had been tortured by the North Vietnamese, it would be one thing, but he can't.

4. Obama will still have tens of millions more to spend before the election than McCain will have, in all likelihood. If he spends a reasonable portion of it in Ohio and Florida and on Spanish television stations, McCain is screwed.

5, Obama hasn't been particularly concerned about the recent rise of McCain in national polls, and I think I know why. He has been running a professional campaign from the beginning, even as McCain has been running a half-assed campaign from the beginning. Just as Obama's Democratic victory was based on understanding what he had to do in caucus states while Hillary Clinton was out trying to win big-state primaries, Obama's victory in the general election will be based on understanding what he has to do to win the Kerry states plus either Ohio or states with large Hispanic populations (Florida or Rocky Mountains states). Obama is still in an extremely good position. If I had to bet who will win based on polls conducted in the last week, showing McCain ahead for the very first time, I would still be betting on Obama.

II. The hatred that has flowed from the rural right toward city-dwellers, social liberals or libertarians, and peaceniks since 1980 has dwarfed the contempt that has flowed back from the left during the Bush 43 years toward the Bush base. They don't seem to be able to imagine any compromises one could reach with evil liberals, just as Bush 43 couldn't, so all they have left is bile. Then when it comes back at them from the people they have expressed hatred toward for years, they express shock and surprise, and crow that it will have adverse political consequences.

Don't bet on it. Conservatives imagine that a majority of Americans will embrace "baby-killer" rhetoric and enthusiasm for occupying Muslim countries and screw-the-middle-class economic policies. They figure that e-mails about how Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ or a Muslim or a terrorist will turn the trick again, or that the smear or slander de jour will turn out the American people for the conservatives. They forget that half the American people have been solidly against them for at least the last 5 years, or that Bush 43 has been the most hated President since Harry Truman during the Korean War, or that both of Bush's victories were by the skin of his teeth.

The Republicans have failed. They have failed in foreign affairs, they have failed in economic management, they have failed in routine maintenance of things like bridges and levees, they have failed in holding the American people together, and they have failed in addressing our dependence on foreign energy. No doubt they can count on rural and puritan religious voters to stand with them no matter how badly they fail, and no doubt that means they can always get 40% to 45% of the vote. But that doesn't guarantee them this election by any means.

The truth is that the militaristic puritan right doesn't deserve another four years, and are much less likely to get it than you imagine. The GOP isn't going to win the House, is going to get creamed in the Senate, and a black guy is at least as likely to win the presidency as not. If McCain wins, it may even be worse for the right than if Obama wins. A President McCain wouldn't even be able to govern without making deals non-stop with Democrats in Congress, and he has done so with abandon in the past, to the general anger and scorn of conservatives. The betrayal and fury you will feel if a President McCain (a guy who would have nominated a pro-abortion VP like Lieberman or Ridge if he thought he could have gotten away with it) nominates a Supreme Court Justice to replace Stevens or Ginsburg committed to Roe v. Wade will be the icing on the cake. If McCain wins — don't worry, I still very much doubt he will — by this time next year, your friends will be sending you e-mails about the Manchurian President who was brainwashed by the Vietnamese, and you'll be talking about Corsi's newest book about John McCain.

You might be better off with a President Obama, since at least you won't have to blame yourself for voting for someone who didn't think twice about reaming you.

[Findog]

Montana is irrelevant.

Penn. and Michigan + Colorado + New Mexico = Obama victory

McCain has a lot of work left to do. All Palin did was make this a race again.

Obama needs to hold Kerry's states and add Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. McCain can keep Florida and Ohio in his column. Iowa is practically locked down for Obama and New Mexico he has a lead outside the margin of error. He's running ahead in Colorado too.

Look at it this way: Obama isn't trailing in a single state that Kerry took, whereas McCain has almost certainly lost Iowa to Obama and New Mexico probably as well. New polls out today have Obama up more in New Hampshire and Michigan than the previous round, so it doesn't look like Palin has helped McCain all that much with undecideds, she's just helped him turn pink states red, states that were never going for Obama anyway. The GOP Convention was a rousing success in terms of getting the base behind him. Much less certain is if McCain can win the independents he needs.

[whottt]

Obama needs to hold Kerry's states and add Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. McCain can keep Florida and Ohio in his column. Iowa is practically locked down for Obama and New Mexico he has a lead outside the margin of error. He's running ahead in Colorado too.

New Mexico's gone red.

Thursday, September 11 
Race Poll Results Spread 
Alaska Rasmussen McCain 64, Obama 33 McCain +31 
New Mexico Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 49 McCain +2

6 point swing in New Mexico since mid-August.

[whottt]

By the way...I just read that McCain will be campaigning in New York as he is being begged by NY Republicans to appear because they strongly feel New York is on the verge of flipping.


I don't think you guys realize the gravity of your situation...


The Republicans don't even have a campaign office in the state of New York.

There is no way McCain would agree to go there unless there was some serious evidence it could be flipped


Keep in mind...Obama only pulled 400k more votes than McCain in New York during the primaries...and that was with 4 other guys on the heavily split Republican ballot...including Guiliani.


You guys better hope there's no Hillary backlash in NYC...but I can almost guarantee you that is where it is truly going to be felt.


New York probably didn't appreciate their candidate being kicked to the curb for Biden.

[JoeChalupa]

By the way...I just read that McCain will be campaigning in New York as he is being begged by NY Republicans to appear because they strongly feel New York is on the verge of flipping.


I don't think you guys realize the gravity of your situation...


The Republicans don't even have a campaign office in the state of New York.

There is no way McCain would agree to go there unless there was some serious evidence it could be flipped


Keep in mind...Obama only pulled 400k more votes than McCain in New York during the primaries...and that was with 4 other guys on the heavily split Republican ballot...including Guiliani.


You guys better hope there's no Hillary backlash in NYC...but I can almost guarantee you that is where it is truly going to be felt.


New York probably didn't appreciate their candidate being kicked to the curb.

Didn't Ed Koch endorse Obama?

[whottt]

Didn't Ed Koch endorse Obama?

So did Hillary...doesn't matter. New Yorkers aren't stupid...like I said.



You guys booted a New York Democrat that puled 18 million votes off your ticket. I can guarantee you that pisses New York off. That's telling them they aren't needed.


And keep in mind...New Yorkers didn't like Bush because they knew he was a Silver Spoon....


McCain, in addition to being Irish which will pretty much get every firefighter and cop in NYC on his side, is a true patriot with a record of proving it...they will react differently to him than they did Bush. He's a guy they will respect...Bush had a brief chance to gain the admiration of NY for all time but he ed up when he went into Iraq instead of getting Usama FIRST.


They'll give McCain a chance to win them over..

[ididnotnothat]

So did Hillary...doesn't matter. New Yorkers aren't stupid...like I said.



You guys booted a New York Democrat that puled 18 million votes off your ticket. I can guarantee you that pisses New York off. That's telling them they aren't needed.


And keep in mind...New Yorkers didn't like Bush because they knew he was a Silver Spoon....


McCain, in addition to being Irish which will pretty much get every firefighter and cop in NYC on his side, is a true patriot with a record of proving it...they will react differently to him than they did Bush. He's a guy they will respect...Bush had a brief chance to gain the admiration of NY for all time but he ed up when he went into Iraq instead of getting Usama FIRST.

You guys? She lost the primary.

[whottt]

Forgot to mention...there are over a half a million Vietnam Vets that live in New York...without a doubt this is the last chance a Vietnam Vet will ever have to be in the Whitehouse, and if McCain doesn't make it, Vietnam will be the only American War that never produced a President. I think that's important to those guys from Vietnam...especially since they didn't get much appreciation from the American public the first time around.

[whottt]

You guys? She lost the primary.

Tell it to NY.

I can't wait to see the next NY poll....

[Findog]

New Mexico's gone red.

Thursday, September 11 
Race Poll Results Spread 
Alaska Rasmussen McCain 64, Obama 33 McCain +31 
New Mexico Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 49 McCain +2

6 point swing in New Mexico since mid-August.

That's within the margin of error.

[Findog]

I'm especially amused by the idea that NY is in play for mccain. very few states are going to flip from 2004. Mayyybe McCain can pick up Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, and Obama can't win without flipping 18 EVS out of New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Florida.

[Findog]

Obama +6 in Jersey....hmmm. Jersey is definitely a flippable state.

No, it isn't.

Uh...what were you guys saying about Montana earlier?

Montana and a # of other pink states were never in play for Obama. Palin turned those states red. Find me a quote where I spooged over Obama winning Montana.

[whottt]

That's within the margin of error.

LOL you're right...that poll is excellent news for Obama.

[whottt]

Find me a quote where I spooged over Obama winning Montana.

Find me a quote where I said Findog was the one talking about Montana...don't put your ass in front of my foot and then cry victim.

[whottt]

I'm especially amused by the idea that NY is in play for mccain. very few states are going to flip from 2004. Mayyybe McCain can pick up Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, and Obama can't win without flipping 18 EVS out of New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada and Florida.

I don't think NY is in play yet...I think it will be though.

I know Jersey is going to be in play...without a doubt.


But you need to realize that some polls in both Jersey and NY only showed Obama with a 6-7 point lead...in mid July.

[Findog]

LOL you're right...that poll is excellent news for Obama.

Well, you're right, whottt has spoken. New Mexico will be red once again on the basis of a poll within the margin of error. No need to even hold an election.

[Findog]

On Sept 3, 2004, polls had Kerry up in Iowa 51-47, he lost that state. That same day, polls in Pennsylvania had Bush up 48-47, he lost that state.

Sorry, whottt, McCain might take NM, but I'm not fretting over a single poll.

[whottt]

Last week I said I thought NY would come into play...you guys told me I was ing crazy...lo and behold, now McCain is going to be campaigning there at the request of their Republicans.

Don't tell me I don't have a grasp on this.

And I've pointed out that NY can be flipped if you can flip one of their major boroughs that goes 90% Democrat...like Queens.

And Queens has turned on a time before, that's how they wound up with Guiliani as mayor and Ptaki as Govenor.

Guess where most of the Irish in NY are...


So many factors working against Democrats in NY right now...


Guiliani pushed McCain.
The greatest Jewish Politician and Democrats pushed McCain.
Hillary got ed.
McCain actually is a war hero as opposed to a Silver Spoon.
McCain isn't from Texas.
Obama was never popular there to begin with, and I don't see how that's changed.



And oh yeah...NY has over 1 million more female voters than males.

[j-6]

Forgot to mention...there are over a half a million Vietnam Vets that live in New York...without a doubt this is the last chance a Vietnam Vet will ever have to be in the Whitehouse, and if McCain doesn't make it, Vietnam will be the only American War that never produced a President. I think that's important to those guys from Vietnam...especially since they didn't get much appreciation from the American public the first time around.

New York is three very distinct areas politically - the city, the Island, and upstate. While upstate (rural) will almost go certainly go McCain, there's no way NYC proper does - even with Rudy and Bloomberg in his corner. They gave Kerry 75% of the vote last go round and hold almost half the state's population.

If McCain can get the Long Island (I'm not including Queens and Brooklyn - they're boroughs) vote, he may stand a chance. My father-in-law is active in his campaign up there and he thinks McCain will win Nassau and Suffolk counties handily. There's still some Spitzer backwash that makes the affluent suburban type uncomfortable voting Democratic.

Anyway, that's a tough place to make a stand - almost like trying to fill an inside straight. I'd concentrate somewhere else if I was him.

[Findog]

McCain is probably just going to NY to fundraise, he's crazy if he thinks that state is going for him. If NY goes for McCain, then this will be a historic landslide on par with Nixon 72, LBJ 64 and Reagan 84. McCain's fortunes are up, and he might win this thing, but not with NY in his column.

[whottt]

New York is three very distinct areas politically - the city, the Island, and upstate. While upstate (rural) will almost go certainly go McCain, there's no way NYC proper does - even with Rudy and Bloomberg in his corner. They gave Kerry 75% of the vote last go round and hold almost half the state's population.

If McCain can get the Long Island (I'm not including Queens and Brooklyn - they're boroughs) vote, he may stand a chance. My father-in-law is active in his campaign up there and he thinks McCain will win Nassau and Suffolk counties handily. There's still some Spitzer backwash that makes the affluent suburban type uncomfortable voting Democratic.

Anyway, that's a tough place to make a stand - almost like trying to fill an inside straight. I'd concentrate somewhere else if I was him.

IMO, the only area McCain doesn't have an inside track of flipping is Manhattan...McCain'll flip Obama before he flips Manhattan.

All it takes is to flip one of their major boroughs.


Maybe they should play up the fact that Palin was born Roman Catholic...if they can get the Italians and the Irish behind them they ought to be able to flip one of those boroughs.


And I like I mentioned earlier in another thread...the liberals and reform jews have been moving out of NY for much of the past 4 years and they are being replaced with Hacidic and Orthodox Jews...don't tell me those guys are going to vote for someone named Hussein.


I'm not saying NY can be flipped...but I do think it can be put in play.


And it's worth a visit there just for fund raising.

[Gino]

After the debates...........all this poll will flip again. I dont see McCain or Palin holding up to the Democrats in a debate.

Obama did not do well in the debates against Hillary.

[whottt]

That's within the margin of error.

And BTW, that 6 point swing is not within the margin of error.

[Findog]

Obama did not do well in the debates against Hillary.

On substance, or on style? Gore slaughtered Bush on substance every single debate, but Bush came across as more likeable and the debates ended up helping him. For that reason, I expect Biden to slaughter Palin on issues and substance, but she'll "win" anyways since she'll come across as "folksy" and will have a couple of zingers to use.

[Findog]

And BTW, that 6 point swing is not within the margin of error.

McCain got a big VP splash by picking a political unknown, then he had his convention. The polls should reflect a McCain surge and bounce over the last 10 days. I'd be extremely worried if the election were tomorrow. The McCain surge is reflected in national polls. We'll see in 2-3 weeks if that was a permanent bounce.