Ike

[CosmicCowboy]

This thing will cover up Texas by the time it hits...

[Das Texan]

wtf..


cnn just mentioned victoria, houston, austin and not san antonio?


wtf?


assholes.



maybe i'll get a new roof out of this..

[1369]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102050
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008


THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED
WIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. A
DROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN
WINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
ADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS. THE LARGE EXPANSE
OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT
MISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE
MAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.
NEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH
ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE
NO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO
COVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS. ALL GUIDANCE TURNS
IKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED
LANDFALL. THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS. IT IS TO BE EXPECTED
THAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH
AND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP
FLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. IKE IS A VERY
LARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS
IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER
CROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE
AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 24.5N 86.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 25.0N 87.4W 95 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 25.6N 89.3W 105 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 26.2N 91.5W 110 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 94.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 97.0W 90 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

[1369]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102100
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON
LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON
WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LA UDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155
KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND
A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE
WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AC ULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cry Havoc]

NHC now calling for a cat four at landfall. So really, with those winds its goign to affect so much of Texas its not funny. If it comes ashore near Victoria as they have it doing right now, we're going to get TS force winds in San Antonio easy and depending on the track we'll get hurricane force winds.

I'm still having major internet problems here, hence my lack of posting in this thread, but that's a really really bad sign.

Manny, what do you think? Will Ike manage to hit cat 5 for a while? If it's cat 4 at landfall that probably means he's weakening as he comes ashore.

All indicators right now are for explosive deepening. He's got warm eddies to feed from and his feeder bands are nearly as wide as the entire Gulf right now.

EVERYONE living on the coast of Texas is likely to feel this storm in some shape or fashion. I'd say those that live in Houston should get ready to make an exit if this track keeps sliding northward.
In short, he's one of the most well-constructed Category 2 hurricanes I've ever seen. He won't be cat 2 for long.

[Ginofan]

Looks like San Antonio is going to be ing packed this weekend...I'm holing up. Eff going out in that weather and traffic this weekend.

[jman3000]

so is a roadtrip to houston this sunday out of the question?

[GuerillaBlack]

so is a roadtrip to houston this sunday out of the question?

You never know...

A Freeport to TX/LA landfall is looking a LOT more likely now. No two storms are the same, but the same conditions for Ike happened with Rita. Ike is at the EXACT same spot now (three days before landfall) that Rita was. In fact, both were Wednesdays. This was about the time people started leaving Houston and it was announced we had no school for a week (Katy ISD).

Check this out (Rita is the lighter shade):



Rita historical is inline with Ike, too: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...graphics.shtml

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

so is a roadtrip to houston this sunday out of the question?

Not at all. You could carpool with the Red Cross.

[Cry Havoc]

Pressure in Ike has now been recorded at 952 mb. As far as pressure goes, Ike is already nearing Cat 4 intensity.

[21GoSpursGo9]

How much is the RGV going to be affected by this?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn that thing is massive. I'm afraid the coast is going to get ed up hard (and quite a ways inland too).

[GuerillaBlack]

[Buddy Holly]

It's beautiful yet terrifying all at the same time.

[Cry Havoc]

Guerrilla, that's a fantastic image. Look at those cloud tops just exploding near the eye.

[Cry Havoc]

Internal pressure now 947 mb! He's almost cat 4 by pressure!

Watch the wind speeds steadily increase tonight.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 23:27Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: Ike1
Mission Number: 20
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 23:06:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°37'N 86°12'W (24.6167N 86.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 278 miles (447 km) to the W (271°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,660m (8,727ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 91 nautical miles (105 statute miles) to the SW (227°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 318° at 68kts (From the NW at ~ 78.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 35 nautical miles (40 statute miles) to the SW (228°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Al ude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Al ude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:33:00Z
Maximum Wind Outbound: 85kts (~ 97.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 23:23:00Z

Hey Manny, think he's annular?

[ShoogarBear]

Ill make sure and let 2Blonde know that. She is mine now!!

Fat chance, assdoodle.












Wow, hurricanes really do get the ole testosterone surging!

[ShoogarBear]

Can I have Jekka's number?

Out of sight, out of mind . . .

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Victoria is ed

[21GoSpursGo9]

This is going to suck ass. I live in San Benito and Dolly did it's share of damage via flooding. This is going to be a serious disaster.

[21GoSpursGo9]

For years I called the speculation of hurricanes hitting the valley (during my existance that is) nothing but bull .

[Buddy Holly]

This is going to suck ass. I live in San Benito and Dolly did it's share of damage via flooding. This is going to be a serious disaster.

Living in San Benito doesn't suck ass already?

[Cry Havoc]

For years I called the speculation of hurricanes hitting the valley (during my existance that is) nothing but bull .

Why?

Hurricanes aren't less prone to hit areas of differential elevation.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

TxDOT is lifting tomorrow's contraflow order because the latest track has it moving north.

[bostonguy]

Living in San Benito doesn't suck ass already?