How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[01.20.09]

I've called every president since 1960.

[Findog]

I've called the winner of every election since 1980...Abramowitz and his formula are going to get owned in this election.

1. This election is unlike any other, ever, and especially since 1988.

2. He's still stuck in July.

3. Palin has Clinton or Reagan level charisma.



Right now more Americans have a favorable view of Palin than the other 3 candidates...


Someone go ask Al how many times the politician with the best favorability rating has lost the election...

It hasn't happened.

Sorry, but Palin hasn't done anything other than energize the Republican base and ensure McCain at the very worst will have a very respectable showing. There is nothing to suggest that she has helped McCain lock up undecideds and independents. And she is at the bottom of the ticket, not the top. There are pros and cons to making a political unknown your running mate. There's a lot of curiosity about her, from people who have made up their minds one way or the other to people still undecided. The fact that she is a skilled politician doesn't undo that this is the worst political environment possible for Republicans. I don't think she's popular outside the Republican base, I think she is a media sensation and curiosity to everybody else. You're confusing novelty with popularity.

Palin has Clinton or Reagan level charisma

How do you know that? She hasn't been able to work up the courage to submit to an interview until today. She is a skilled politician who competently delivered a partisan address at the RNC. Other than that, they've kept her away from reporters and only pulling her out to stand beside John McCain and deliver a condensed version of her convention speech. No one has seen anything of her except in highly scripted settings. The GOP base loves her I'll give you that. And McCain has given undecideds a reason to look over his candidacy again. That's about it.

[florige]

I've called the winner of every election since 1980...Abramowitz and his formula are going to get owned in this election.

1. This election is unlike any other, ever, and especially since 1988.

2. He's still stuck in July.

3. Palin has Clinton or Reagan level charisma.



Right now more Americans have a favorable view of Palin than the other 3 candidates...


Someone go ask Al how many times the politician with the best favorability rating has lost the election...

It hasn't happened.


Edit: By election I mean popular vote.

I thought you said the other day that you were wrong about Bush in 04?

[01.20.09]

We'll see how she does in her first interview today. But Charlie Gibson is such a light weight she should breeze right through it and come out shining. If not she's toast.

[florige]

We'll see how she does in her first interview today. But Charlie Gibson is such a light weight she should breeze right through it and come out shining. If not she's toast.

You said it. She'll come out of it looking like a champion.

[Findog]

Over time Palin will recede as an important factor. VPs don't swing elections. Certainly she hasn't hurt McCain, if anything up to this point she has undeniably helped him.

McCain and the GOP want to turn this election away from the issues and into another chapter of the cultural tribal wars. They want to turn this election into some sort of referendum on Sarah Palin. They've managed with great success to do that through the RNC and up to now. Obama can't fall into that trap, and I don't think that he will.

He's defied every expectation and gotten where nobody thought he could be running a tight, disciplined and focused campaign. It very much reminds me of Clinton's 92 campaign, where economic cir stances were similar and where the GOP went very negative on Clinton personally. There is an anti-in bency mood in the country, and he's run a competent campaign. Palin has caught them off-balance a little bit, but I think that's to be expected when you have a political newcomer and you don't know where the fault lines are.

I don't think they can sustain Sarah Mania for another 55 days, especially since it's not very potent outside the GOP base. Obama's best strategy is to attack McCain relentlessly on the issues and let surrogates deal with her. You don't see McCain talking about Joe Biden much.

[whottt]

I thought you said the other day that you were wrong about Bush in 04?

It was 2000...and I wasn't wrong about Bush overall, he did lose the popualar vote. I was just wrong about the degree to which he would lose it.

[JohnnyMarzetti]

You've already lost it.

[whottt]

Rasmussen National Poll is giving McCain over a 50% chance of winning...for the first time.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ..._tracking_poll


Thursday, September 11, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisement
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday, September 11 shows Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 46% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 48% (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

On the seventh anniversary of the terrorist attack that shook our nation, 54% of Americans say the United States has changed for the worse since that terrible day. Forty-nine percent (49%) say that the world would be a better place if other countries were more like the United States.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends). Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 56%, Joe Biden by 53%. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers.

Data released last night shows John McCain up by two in New Mexico, up by double digits in North Dakota, and up by an overwhelming margin in his running mate’s home state of Alaska. The Palin surge in Alaska has even helped pull embattled Senator Ted Stevens back to a compe ive position in his bid for re-election. Presidential polling has also been released this week for Colorado, Florida, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Michigan, Idaho, and Wyoming. The latest update of the Generic Congressional Ballot will be released at 3:00 p.m. Eastern. Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls. Learn More.

Yesterday, for the first time ever, Rasmussen Markets data gave McCain a better than 50% chance of winning the White House in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give Obama a 48.9% chance of victory. Prior to this past weekend, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

Obama now enjoys a 193-189 lead in the Electoral College. When “leaners” are included, the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Obama leading 264-247 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary). Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.

Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls.

[whottt]

Real Clear Politics has the Electoral Map now in a virtual tie 217 Obama 216 McCain:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

[Findog]

Real Clear Politics has the Electoral Map now in a virtual tie 217 Obama 216 McCain:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

Only Kerry states in play: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

Only Bush states in play: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa (practically an Obama safe state), Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Obama needs to pick off either Ohio or Florida, or grab 2-3 mountain states.

McCain has to hold the Bush electoral map together. He's already lost Iowa, so that gives Obama a grip on 259 EVs. He's got to keep Obama from picking up 11 EVS out of a pool of 86 EVs. Given how convention bounces go, McCain still has another 2 weeks before we see how much of a permanent bump he got.

It's a simple as that. We'll be up late on election night.

[whottt]

90% of the polling trends going in McCain's favor is a positive for Obama.

[Findog]

McCain's convention bounce has decisively swing the election in his favor

[Findog]

I'd be damn surprised if McCain didn't get a convention bounce. That bounce got him all of 1 point lead on Barack nationally. Didn't Gore and Lieberman have a double-digit lead coming out of LA? I bet early September 2000 was an awful time to be a Bush supporter.

[whottt]

Only Kerry states in play: Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire.

Only Bush states in play: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa (practically an Obama safe state), Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Obama needs to pick off either Ohio or Florida, or grab 2-3 mountain states.

McCain has to hold the Bush electoral map together. He's already lost Iowa, so that gives Obama a grip on 259 EVs. He's got to keep Obama from picking up 11 EVS out of a pool of 86 EVs. Given how convention bounces go, McCain still has another 2 weeks before we see how much of a permanent bump he got.

It's a simple as that. We'll be up late on election night.

Actually he really doesn't need to hold the Bush election map together...he can lose Iowa and Colorado....it's when he loses either NM or NV that things get dicey...but I am predicting that Obama is going to lose either Penn or Michigan....plus I think Palin is going to flip a major blue state no one is expecting.


You think she's afraid of giving interviews or doing debates...tell me, were you also one of the ones predicting she would fall on her ass when she spoke before the RNC?


I honestly think this woman does better interviews than any politician I've ever seen.



Furthermore...you think she's some crazed bible thumper...I already know she's not, and neither is McCain. The more she talks the more people will realizze that, the more people are going to find the McCain Palin ticket more centrist and less dicey and leftist than Obama Biden.

Furthermore...leadership is a quality that can't be masked, it can't be hidden, it can't be faked. It is something that has an instinctive appeal that attracts people on an indefinable level...only one candidate in this election has it...and that's Palin....even though she's trying to mask it right now.

Obama and Biden have no leadership appeal...salesmanship yes, leadership no.

[whottt]

I was pretty inspired about Obama's leadership today when he met with Clinton to beg for help. *sniff*, it brought a tear to my eye.

the more Obama has to ask the Clintons for help the more he is going to look like an idiot for not putting Hillary on the ballot with him. They aren't helping him.


It just makes him look even weaker...

[whottt]

Bill, Hillary, please fight my battles for me

[Findog]

Actually he really doesn't need to hold the Bush election map together...he can lose Iowa and Colorado....it's when he loses either NM or NV that things get dicey...but I am predicting that Obama is going to lose either Penn or Michigan....plus I think Palin is going to flip a major blue state no one is expecting.

True, he can offset losses if he flips some blue states himself. I just think it is no more likely for Michigan and Pennsylvania to flip than say Virginia.

You think she's afraid of giving interviews or doing debates...tell me, were you also one of the ones predicting she would fall on her ass when she spoke before the RNC?

No, I never doubted her ability to competently deliver a partisan speech with a couple of good zingers in front of an adoring convention hall audience. She is a skilled politician. Doesn't mean I want her a 72-year-old heartbeat away from the presidency. Why isn't she going on Meet the Press? Why is she doing a BabaWawa style celebrity interview in primetime? What does she have to hide? The more she eschews typical VP press duties, the more it will grow as a campaign issue.

I honestly think this woman does better interviews than any politician I've ever seen.

I haven't seen any interviews with her since she was selected as VP nominee. What interviews have you seen? Any youtube links?

Furthermore...you think she's some crazed bible thumper...I already know she's not, and neither is McCain. The more she talks the more people will realizze that, the more people are going to find the McCain Palin ticket more centrist and less dicey and leftist than Biden Palin.

She's a sop to the far right of his party, if it was up to McCain he would've nominated pro-choice pol like Ridge or Lieberman. Obama doesn't have to make hay over her religious beliefs, in fact the context in which he made his lipstick remark was part of a larger comment he was making at the time praising her for having religious convictions. Dems don't have to paint her as a religious extremist to win. They should avoid McCain's briar trap of making this a referendum on her, because they lose if they do.

Furthermore...leadership is a quality that can't be masked, it can't be hidden, it can't be faked. It is something that has an instinctive appeal that attracts people on an indefinable level...only one candidate in this election has it...and that's Palin.

I wouldn't know if she has leadership or not because she was par for the course when it comes to the Alaska GOP party and because she won't appear anywhere except at McCain's side at campaign rallies in highly scripted situations. I wish I had your clairvoyance, but your subjective comments here aren't based on anything empirical.

Obama and Biden have no leadership appeal...salesmanship yes, leadership no.

Typical. Who has policies that will better benefit America? Let's not have that debate. Let's turn this into amorphous bull on "leadership." They're certainly typical politicians, they cut deals and postured and pandered to head a major party ticket. Just like McCain and Palin. I've never drunk the Obama personality cult kool-aid. At this point I want competence back in my government. I don't expect govt to fix my problems or do for me what I can do for myself. I'm just tired of the same people that can't manage the economy, can't avoid attacking countries that didn't want war with us and didn't attack us, and can't manage to keep a major city from drowning before our eyes. McCain is not George W. Bush, but he is a member of the Republican party, and he would overwhelmingly continue the majority of Bush's policies. The GOP doesn't deserve another 4 years.

[Findog]

I was pretty inspired about Obama's leadership today when he met with Clinton to beg for help. *sniff*, it brought a tear to my eye.

the more Obama has to ask the Clintons for help the more he is going to look like an idiot for not putting Hillary on the ballot with him. They aren't helping him.


It just makes him look even weaker...

Clinton is a very charismatic and persuasive politician. It would be stupid not to have him stump for him. Gore made that mistake in 2000 by deciding to personally distance himself from Clinton and it cost him the election.

[whottt]

New Gallup shows McCain up 48%-44%.

[whottt]

Clinton is a very charismatic and persuasive politician. It would be stupid not to have him stump for him. Gore made that mistake in 2000 by deciding to personally distance himself from Clinton and it cost him the election.

That was different...and I agree with you in that situation.

[Findog]

New Gallup shows McCain up 48%-44%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...ll_update.html

Two national polls show the race tied, while three give a slight edge to McCain. Just a convention bounce.

[whottt]

No, I never doubted her ability to competently deliver a partisan speech with a couple of good zingers in front of an adoring convention hall audience. She is a skilled politician. Doesn't mean I want her a 72-year-old heartbeat away from the presidency. Why isn't she going on Meet the Press? Why is she doing a BabaWawa style celebrity interview in primetime? What does she have to hide? The more she eschews typical VP press duties, the more it will grow as a campaign issue.

She doesn't have anything to hide...but the more she holds out the more people are going to listen when she finally does speak.

Furthermore, if her not talking leads people to believe she's afraid they'll have low expectation.

I haven't seen any interviews with her since she was selected as VP nominee. What interviews have you seen? Any youtube links?

I've seen her doing interviews and debates on C-Span...that stuff is probably on youtube.

The interviews were particularly revealing...she was answering questions from callers.

She's a sop to the far right of his party, if it was up to McCain he would've nominated pro-choice pol like Ridge or Lieberman. Obama doesn't have to make hay over her religious beliefs, in fact the context in which he made his lipstick remark was part of a larger comment he was making at the time praising her for having religious convictions. Dems don't have to paint her as a religious extremist to win. They should avoid McCain's briar trap of making this a referendum on her, because they lose if they do.

Her appeal is much broader than you think.

I wouldn't know if she has leadership or not because she was par for the course when it comes to the Alaska GOP party and because she won't appear anywhere except at McCain's side at campaign rallies in highly scripted situations. I wish I had your clairvoyance, but your subjective comments here aren't based on anything empirical.

Yeah well...you were wrong about Jason Kidd as well.

Typical. Who has policies that will better benefit America? Let's not have that debate. Let's turn this into amorphous bull on "leadership." They're certainly typical politicians, they cut deals and postured and pandered to head a major party ticket. Just like McCain and Palin. I've never drunk the Obama personality cult kool-aid. At this point I want competence back in my government. I don't expect govt to fix my problems or do for me what I can do for myself. I'm just tired of the same people that can't manage the economy, can't avoid attacking countries that didn't want war with us and didn't attack us, and can't manage to keep a major city from drowning before our eyes. McCain is not George W. Bush, but he is a member of the Republican party, and he would overwhelmingly continue the majority of Bush's policies. The GOP doesn't deserve another 4 years.

Obama's tax policy is going to be a disaster...it's going to move jobs out of the US, it's going to increase layoffs....it's going to be horrible.

And his energy policy isn't going to lower gas prices whatsoever....and his transition policy is going to need to be paid for by taxes.




People need to realize that the economy of the past 4 years was most likely the best of possible worlds. Economies don't grow like they did in the 90's forever....you need revolutionary technology usually to have an economic boom like that...and nothing is going to appear just because Obama gets elected...furthermore, if he is taxing the out the wealthy they aren't going to have as much money to research new technologies.

[JoeChalupa]

McCain's plans are all more of the same and are already a disaster but according to whottt McCain has this election in the bag.

[fyatuk]

People need to realize that the economy of the past 4 years was most likely the best of possible worlds. Economies don't grow like they did in the 90's forever....you need revolutionary technology usually to have an economic boom like that...and nothing is going to appear just because Obama gets elected...furthermore, if he is taxing the out the wealthy they aren't going to have as much money to research new technologies.

The worst thing about the economy over the last few years is the growth in the disparity between executive and peon pay. It's a shame more companies didn't pass their good fortune to consumers or peons.