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67 million votes for John McCain. Wow.
Wow...you're still stuck in the past. Totally different ball game now.
Popular vote is tough to call in this election.....but I figure McCain is going to do at least 5 million votes more than W did in 04.I'm guessing you think McCain is going to win 63% of the popular vote and Obama will only carry Hawaii, Illinois and Massachusetts, right?
67 million votes for John McCain. Wow.
Okay, so without getting into specifics, I say Obama wins a close election and you say McCain wins in a landslide? Fair representation of our opinions?
Yeap.
Kinda like when I said you guys were going to be worse off after you got Kidd and you said it was going to be better...then a few weeks later you gave up.
You and Skank....
I remember you guys were propping each other...didn't change the reality of the situation.
Oh yeah BTW, Findog...I also don't think Obama is going to do as well as Kerry did in the last election in terms of total votes.
Obama isn't that much more likeable than Kerry whereas Palin and McCain are much more likeable than W and Cheney.
And yes...people vote for who they like. Only party loyalists vote straight issues.
By the way...in recent polls the number of people saying they are Republicans is now 1 point lower than those that say they are Democrats, this is among registered voters....Kerry actually lead that category by 2 points in 2004....he trailed however in likely voters, by 2 points, or pretty much the same number as he lost the election by.
McCain had a 10 point lead on Obama in the last likely voter National Poll.
As for blue states, I was reading on another forum, the number of independent voters in New Jersey is greater than the number of registered Democrats and Republicans combined.
Obama is way more likeable than Kerry, that's why McCain was running dumb ads decrying his "celebrity" appeal and accusing him of only being able to deliver nice speeches with nothing to back it up. Kerry was another yacht-owning wine-sipping Dukakis. Palin is a highly polarizing figure and McCain generates no excitement at the top of the ticket. The Dems can break even on personality in this election. This is a "change" election, like 1992, whereas in 2004 Bush barely was re-elected despite being a wartime in bent and facing an uncharismatic opponent.
Link? Latest Newsweek poll has them tied. I would take that poll as an outlier, just like the 54-44 McCain lead in one poll right after the GOP convention and one poll that had Obama up 50-42 right after the DNC.
Relevance, since NJ is staying blue this year?As for blue states, I was reading on another forum, the number of independent voters in New Jersey is greater than the number of registered Democrats and Republicans combined
http://www.zogby.com/50state/
Latest Zogby's have McCain up in New Hampshire, Penn and Colorado.
Keep in mind...Zogby is always weghted to the left and he's tended to be weighted in favor of Obama as well.
Um, it's relevant because that state is trending away from Obama and is within the margin of error of being a Red State as we speak.
If you don't think that's relevant it's because you are in denial, not because it isn't relevant.
That link has Indiana and North Carolina as tossups. McCain will take Indiana and North Carolina. Obama will take NH and Pennsylvania. Only Kerry state I'm worried about turning red is Michigan, and McCain will regret not picking Romney when this thing is over.
NJ is going for Obama. There was a state poll at one point in 2004 that had Bush compe ive in Hawaii. Cheney actually flew out there and delivered a stump speech, but no matter, Hawaii went blue. At one point Bush polled compe ively in California, Oregon and Washington State. New Jersey is not in play for McCain and Indiana is not in play for Obama. It comes down to Obama being able to flip either Virginia, Ohio or Florida in the East time zone and 2 out of 3 in the group of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada. This electoral map is looking a lot like 2004.
Oh I agree...Zoby is way behind with a lot of states not polled since early July. But all those recent polls favor McCain.
Especially in Penn.
I mean if you think about it...Penn was a battleground before the NC's...how is adding a blue collar middle class(relatively speaking) mom with a Roman Catholic background and Steelworkers Union husband going to be a negative?
If Penn was at the tipping point there is no way the Palin pick hurt him in Penn.
I'm sorry but you are wrong...you are acting like these states are immutable and they never flip. They can and will flip.
Has any state tightened for Obama lately?
Nope. Not a one, and they are all trending down for him.
Joe Biden is going to keep Pennsylvania in Obama's column.
Everything in the past two weeks is attributable to a big VP splash and the GOP convention, so it is hard at this point to say that McCain's recent gains will be permanent. States do flip, NH went from Bush 2000 to Kerry 2004, while NM and Iowa Gore 2000 went to Bush in 2004. I think Iowa is already a cinch to go back to the Dems this year.
I am again going to point out that Obama got his ass beat in Penn, Jersey, Cali, and New York...that means he wasn't a popular candidate in any of those major blue states.
I know you don't understand this, being a party loyalist, but people will switch parties if the candidate they like in a party isn't on the ticket.
People that vote party over candidate are the least intelligent demographic of American voters...and also a minority of voters.
I've seen New York and New Jersey and California go red before....and I know why it happened as well.
In fact I've seen every state go Red before...
When you consider that Obama beat Hillary because of his performance in small Red States, all of which are now heavily in favor of McCain...and got his ass beat in big blue ones...it is foolish to think those are locked up.
I guarantee you Obama is worried about it.
Last edited by whottt; 09-13-2008 at 05:55 PM.
Democratic Primary =! General Election.
I'm not a Democrat, I'm an Obama supporter, and I'm well aware that plenty of Republicans voted for Hillary in the later primaries to drag out the process.I know you don't understand this, being a party loyalist, but people will switch parties if the candidate they like in a party isn't on the ticket.
Here's a hint:I've seen New York and New Jersey and California go red before....and I know why it happened as well.
Here's a hint:In fact I've seen every state go Red before...
It's foolish to think that liberal Hillary supporters are going to vote for McCain en masse, whether they live in California or Nebraska. You've also demonstrated you don't understand why and how Obama beat Hillary.
When you consider that Obama beat Hillary because of his performance in small Red States, all of which are now heavily in favor of McCain...and got his ass beat in big blue ones...it is foolish to think those are locked up.
Of course he's worried about losing the election. So is McCain. In other news, Hurricane Ike has caused major devastation to southeast Texas.I guarantee you Obama is worried about it.
How am I a Democrat? I voted for McCain in the 2000 Texas Republican Primary.
Besides, I was in California during the Democratic Primary, and if you think that Hillary supporters there are not willing to give their support to Obama in the general, you're ing delusional.
The polls today made me want to puke. I can't believe how fast everything has unwravled. Same old .
Be patient. Those Zogby Interactive polls are worthless. My prediction is that Obama will be up by an average of 1-2 points in the national polls on the eve of the first debate. The race will eventually settle back to the point it was at on the eve of the VP selections and the conventions. Palin is not going to win this election for McCain, and the hoopla and spectacle over her is what has fueled his rise in the polls. It's way premature to think that is going to continue that way until November 4th. Democrats, the Obama campaign, the blogs and the surrogates need to stop talking about Palin so much. If this election turns into being about her, we're gonna lose. The novelty of her pick is going to wear off, and that and the post-convention bounce accounts for McCain's rise.
Manny instead of whining like a , go do something about it.
You don't wanna see McSame/Moosehunter in office, then go out and help campaign and bring voters in. Donate. Do something. Just don't ing sit there and whine.
Wow - you.
You have no ing clue what I've done in this campaign so why the are you lecturing me about doing something?
Because every post I read from you is doom and gloom.
Yes we're slightly down in the polls, but for sakes there is at least 7 weeks left. That is an eternity in politics.
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