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Wow, NY goes red. McCain is going to make Reagan-Mondale look like a nail-biter.
smh
McCain could make a single appearance in Queens and flip NY. He just has to flip one of their major boroughs, catch some Hillary women and he flips the state.
NY is going to be asking the same thing everyone else asked...why didn't you ing put Hillary on the ticket if you wanted our votes?
Wow, NY goes red. McCain is going to make Reagan-Mondale look like a nail-biter.
smh
According to whottt, Obama will only carry Illinois, Massachusetts, Hawaii and D.C.
Got some bad news for you Whottt, Obama just pulled ahead in VA....
http://politicalwire.com/archives/20..._virginia.html
I don't put any more faith in that than I do NY suddenly being in play for McCain.
Dammit you beat me to it.....
I know. I just like busting Whottt's balls.....
That being said though I like Obama's chances in VA more then I like McCain's in NY.
Obama basically has 2 main paths to the Presidency, but they both hinge on him holding all of Kerry's states. I would say that the most vulnerable Kerry states are NH, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Michigan being the most vulnerable.
With the Kerry states and Iowa, that gets him to 259. He can flip either Ohio, Virginia or Florida in the East time zone, or he can grab Colorado and either New Mexico and Nevada. If he can turn one of those eastern states, he no longer needs the Mountain states.
Those two polls together make no sense. Either McCain is gaining traction in New York or Obama is turning Virginia blue, but not both.
The national polling, regardless of whether they have this tied or either candidate in the lead, supports a close race. A close race doesn't involve New York turning red or Georgia turning blue.
Yeah it's def going to be close. The debates are going to be the thing that decides this...
By the way CNN has it a tie race again Whottt.....http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/
The VA poll is great especially since SUSA is by far one of the better pollsters. That being said, I'm not ready to give Obama that state yet. Lets see some more results and see if they point in that direction or if its an outlier.
The polling today was good pretty good for Obama - especially that VA number. Perhaps this signals an end to the McCain bounce and a bit of a withdrawl of the Palin love.
I think at some point Palin's effect has to come down, I just don't know how much that is.
I'm not taking anything for granted. We saw how fast his lead evaporated over McCain. I'm just glad to see some positives for the first time since the Republican convention. We still have a long way to go.....
The Democrats best strategy is to start attacking McCain, remind voters that he and not Sarah Palin is at the top of the ticket. And it looks like they're doing that. Democrats have got to stop worrying about converting people into disliking Sarah Palin. People can still like her and yet not vote for the ticket that she's on. The more time spent bashing Palin, the better for McCain.
I concur. People have to remember that it is still the McCain/Palin ticket.
This is the natural ebb and flow of politics. I'm not surprised at all that McCain got a nice boost after his convention. The race will tighten up in the coming weeks to a dead heat IMHO.
I'm confident in Obama winning this election because he put forth the effort to create a massive ground game. The GOTV effort will be huge in the battleground states. Obama did the hard work, and it's going to pay off for him more than anyone is expecting right now.
Sincerely,
whottt, the day Palin was announced as VP.
It's too late for that now. To be fair...it was pretty much over when Palin was selected.
SUSA is the best one...but they can be hired to give desirable results.
It's going to go up once people realize she's not some crazed right winger. The dinosaur thing is going ot make a lot of lefties look like assholes once it comes out that her Dad is a science teacher.I think at some point Palin's effect has to come down, I just don't know how much that is.
Damn, I hope you are wrong.
It's far from over. I wouldn't even argue that she's "popular" anywhere except the Republican base. The media spectacle over her and the GOP convention have largely resulted in positive coverage of the McCain campaign. And since she's a new figure on the national political scene, it's easy for voters to see what they want to see in Palin and project that onto her. It will be hard for her to retain a pristine image the more she's in the spotlight.
I wouldn't at all be surprised if her effect on McCain is analogous to Ferraro for Mondale.
The fivethirtyeight.com which was touted in the early pages of this thread as "the only poll that counts" has John McCain leading in projected Electoral Votes----- McCain 287.7 to Obama 250.3. This today's update!
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
And you'd be wrong about that.
No, what's driving it is that people are excited to have a likeable candidate in a Presidential race for the first time since 1996.The media spectacle over her and the GOP convention have largely resulted in positive coverage of the McCain campaign. And since she's a new figure on the national political scene, it's easy for voters to see what they want to see in Palin and project that onto her. It will be hard for her to retain a pristine image the more she's in the spotlight.
And I'd say you aren't the sharpest tool in the shed if that is your perception.
I wouldn't at all be surprised if her effect on McCain is analogous to Ferraro for Mondale.
My two favorite Presidents were Reagan and Clinton...Palin is more likeable than either of them.
Anyway...I'll let you get back to explaining why NJ, NY, Min and Washington turning into batteleground states is a positive for Obama.
Damn, I hope you are wrong.
He's not right about it being over.
It's up to McCain to screw up really really badly, that's your shot...not out of the realm of possibility....but people are still going to vote for Palin over Obama...ticket placement isn't going to be important.
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