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C'mon, we're not whottt, we don't count our chickens before they hatch. McCain is losing his convention bounce, but he has a chance to win this thing.
Hey Whottt
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...ntial_election
What up now ?
C'mon, we're not whottt, we don't count our chickens before they hatch. McCain is losing his convention bounce, but he has a chance to win this thing.
The Siena Marist poll that had McCain compe ive in NY was an absurd outlier. I just wish McCain would fire Steve Schmidt and hire whottt....
Does McCain go anywhere without Palin? Palin McCain 08.
McCain can't draw crowds by himself. Palin can't speak by herself. Match made in heaven.
She wasn't lipstick on a pig, she was Viagra for the flaccid McCain campaign.
I'm glad they're starting to ignore her though. 2 polls today showed her unfavorables rising rapidly and she comes down to earth. The gaffes the past 2 days by the McCain campaign have helped turn the tide a bit. I'm not happy at the moment, but I'm not really upset
I'm not sold on the Rasmussen total for NY...I know for a fact their polls are weighted by party registration heavily in favor of the Democrats.
Plus...this poll still represents an 8 point swing in McCain's favor over the last Rasmussen Poll in NY, which Obama up by 20, so it's still trending in McCain's favor.
Keep in mind...I said by November it would be in play, the fact that it is already showing signs of being in play is a bad one for Obama supporters...I said by November. And I've got several polls showing me my instincts are right.
Suposedly Rasmussen is going to poll New Jersey and Washington as well...it'll be interesting to see what he comes up with.
This guy is better than the RNC spinmeisters. They need to hire him now.
The bottom line is anyone who knows anything about politics knows that NY is completely out of play for McCain. It's a typical example of a blue state that gets bluer as the election closes, just like NJ/PA/MI.
Because it doesn't have the result you like
Actually, you're wrong on that, his party ID is weighted +5 in favor of Democrats, same as most major polls.I know for a fact their polls are weighted by party registration heavily in favor of the Democrats.
Plus...this poll still represents an 8 point swing in McCain's favor over the last Rasmussen Poll in NY, which Obama up by 20, so it's still trending in McCain's favor.
Well, I guess McCain should fire Steve Schmidt and hire you because they obviously don't see things the same way.Keep in mind...I said by November it would be in play, the fact that it is already showing signs of being in play is a bad one for Obama supporters...I said by November. And I've got several polls showing me my instincts are right.
whottt would do better than that Tucker they keep trotting out on the cable news shows. He spins bull with no apologies or shame.
It's ironic to hear whottt complaining about Dem bias for Rasmussen, since the guy is a Republican and evangelical Christian with ties to the Republican Party. If there are any complaints with this guy, they're coming from lefties who say his polls aren't weighted enough in favor of party ID for the Dems.
There is a debate about what the party ID should be: in the primaries it was +8-9 Democrat, last election I believe it was +5. Some believe the higher number is more accurate to reflect the new voter registration efforts made by the DNC, others think +5 is more accurate to reflect conservative voters coming on board with the Palin pick. But, nonetheless, another example of whottt not knowing what he's talking about.
Findog. He said he's independent!!
I've voted for Republicans, Democrats, Greens and Libertarians. Sorry if the rest of us don't divide the world into a left/right, dem/repub axis. Both major parties suck, but Obama is CLEARLY the lesser of two evils here. It's not even close.Findog
Because it's got results way out of synch with 2 other polls I've seen. Plus I know for a fact Rasmussen is the last to adjust their weights.
No he alters it, in fact he's altered his National polls. But yeah...there has been a huge swing in party affiliation, and his polls don't reflect that. He just adjusted the weight for the National Polls on Monday.
Actually, you're wrong on that, his party ID is weighted +5 in favor of Democrats, same as most major polls.
Well, I guess McCain should fire Steve Schmidt and hire you because they obviously don't see things the same way.
Probably would be a good idea.
I didn't say he was biased, I understand what he does, I just don't think it's that accurate yet.
Link?
I said his poll is weighted heavily in favor of Democrats...I didn't say he was biased.
I'm not complaining...I'm just not ready to accept that poll as the be all end all...and I've got legitimate reasons for doing so.
since the guy is a Republican and evangelical Christian with ties to the Republican Party. If there are any complaints with this guy, they're coming from lefties who say his polls aren't weighted enough in favor of party ID for the Dems.
#1. The weights.
#2. Other polls showing different results.
There is a debate about what the party ID should be: in the primaries it was +8-9 Democrat, last election I believe it was +5. Some believe the higher number is more accurate to reflect the new voter registration efforts made by the DNC, others think +5 is more accurate to reflect conservative voters coming on board with the Palin pick. But, nonetheless, another example of whottt not knowing what he's talking about.
The Democratic Registration figures are way off...because they had a much more exciting primary than the Republicans did.
I myself am a registered Democrat right now because I voted in the Democratic Primary...not in the Republican.
In case you're wondering...Hillary, because she had a better stance on the Iraq war at the time and that was the most important issue to me at that moment.
Obama's campaign says that they have a built-in formula to account for no-shows and votes for other candidates of the people they register. I'm just not worried about "Hillary's former supporters" when so many voted in the Dem primary to drag things out. A lot of those Hillary votes were never going to be Obama's in the general anyway.
Hillary's Iraq record is ironically what lost her the Dem nomination. If she had pulled an Edwards and said "My bad," she'd be the nominee today. We can debate the wisdom of taking an anti-war platform into a general election, but it's not a smart way to win the Democratic nomination.
I'll bet that they say they do.
Rasmussen trend for NY...
McCain clearly is doing better there now than he ever has before. I want to check the number of people polled btw.
Keep in mind...NY is the capital of the liberal media, for instance the New York Times had 4 hit pieces on Palin in a single day....like I've been saying the more Palin talks, the less the media will be able to smear her.
New York Trends: McCain vs. Obama
Date
McCain
Obama
09/15/2008
42%
55%
08/04/2008
32%
52%
06/30/2008
29%
60%
05/28/2008
33%
52%
04/29/2008
35%
52%
03/11/2008
38%
51%
Rasmussen 09/15 - 09/15 500 LV 55 42 Obama +13
Siena 09/08 - 09/10 626 LV 46 41 Obama +5
The Sienna is a larger sample...but not large enough to explain the discrepancy.
He's losing by 14 points even in your poll.....I wish McSame would dump cash into NY....considering he doesn't have a prayer....
BTW...here's a list to the most accurate pollsters in the Primaries...or so they say
Since the site is owned by the pollster ranked as #1 I take it with a grain of salt...nonthless Rasmussen was off by a pretty substantial amount. I don't think it's that they are completely off, so much as they are slow to react.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2...mac-primaries/
Last edited by whottt; 09-16-2008 at 07:02 PM.
Dump cash ...raise cash.
And you guys are ignoring 2 other polls.
Last edited by whottt; 09-16-2008 at 07:03 PM.
VASpurfan this is what I wanted to post earlier...and to the point I was making to Dan:
From Wiki:
Manhattan
minority in the borough, only cons uting approximately 12% of the electorate. Registered Republicans are more than 20% of the electorate only in the neighborhoods of Upper East Side and the Financial District. The Democrats hold 66.1% of those registered in a party. 21.9% of the voters declined to state their political affiliation.[77]
Local party platforms center on affordable housing, education and economic development. Controversial political issues in Manhattan include development, noise, and the cost of housing.
Manhattan is divided between four congressional districts, all of which are represented by Democrats.
Charles Rangel represents the 15th district in Upper Manhattan, which incorporates Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood and parts of the Upper West Side.
Jerrold Nadler represents the 8th district, based on the West Side which covers most of the Upper West Side, 's Kitchen, Chelsea, Greenwich Village, Chinatown, Tribeca and Battery Park City, as well as some sections of Southwest Brooklyn.
Carolyn Maloney represents the 14th district, the so-called "Silk Stocking" district which was the political base for Teddy Roosevelt and John Lindsay. It covers most of the Upper East Side, Yorkville, Gramercy Park, the East Village, Roosevelt Island and most of the Lower East Side, as well as portions of western Queens.
Nydia Velazquez of the Brooklyn-Queens based 12th district, represents a few heavily Puerto Rican sections of the Lower East Side.
No Republican has won the presidential election in Manhattan since 1924, when Calvin Coolidge won a plurality of the New York County vote over Democrat John W. Davis, 41.20%–39.55%. Warren G. Harding was the most recent Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the Manhattan vote, with 59.22% of the 1920 vote.[78] In the 2004 presidential election, Democrat John Kerry received 82.1% of the vote in Manhattan and Republican George W. Bush received 16.7%.[79] The borough is the most important source of funding for presidential campaigns in the United States; in 2004, it was home to six of the top seven zip codes in the nation for political contributions.[80] The top ZIP code, 10021 on the Upper East Side, generated the most money for the United States presidential election for all presidential candidates, including both Kerry and Bush during the 2004 election.[81]
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