How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[whottt]

New York Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date
McCain
Obama

09/15/2008
42%
55%

08/04/2008
32%
52%


So basically even the poll that is the only one you guys want to pay attention too...shows a 10 point upsurge for McCain.

[TheMadHatter]

Why isn't John McCain in NY? Why doesn't he have a significant field operation in NY? I'm confused Whottt. Please explain this to me.

[florige]

Man Whottt wants NY sooooo bad......

[florige]

I cannot WAIT till the first debate. I'm wondering if Biden is the least bit nervous....... He is going up against a superstar. It is on a Friday, I may take off that day...

[whottt]

I've never predicted New York will go Red...just that it will be in play by November. On some polls it already is.

[TheMadHatter]

Define in play

[florige]

Rasmussen trend for NY...

McCain clearly is doing better there now than he ever has before. I want to check the number of people polled btw.

Keep in mind...NY is the capital of the liberal media, for instance the New York Times had 4 hit pieces on Palin in a single day....like I've been saying the more Palin talks, the less the media will be able to smear her.





New York Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date



.
McCain
Obama

09/15/2008
42%
55%

08/04/2008
32%
52%

06/30/2008
29%
60%

05/28/2008
33%
52%

04/29/2008
35%
52%

03/11/2008
38%
51%

Man that is dangerous. You see how her stocks plummeted after that one interview.

[whottt]

Man that is dangerous. You see how her stocks plummeted after that one interview.

That's because they smeared her and edited her comments..not just ABC, but CNN was running a smear job as well. I can't believe people don't see it...it's ing ridiculous.

[whottt]

By the way...whottt from September 6th, page 2 of this thread:

I'll predict a 5% swing by the next New York Poll.

Prediction met, smashed actually...on every NY poll so far.


and I've been looking at some polling data...I do think Rasmussen runs about a week behind the regular average on these state polls....probably due to his weights.

[VaSpursFan]

VASpurfan this is what I wanted to post earlier...and to the point I was making to Dan:

From Wiki:

Manhattan

minority in the borough, only cons uting approximately 12% of the electorate. Registered Republicans are more than 20% of the electorate only in the neighborhoods of Upper East Side and the Financial District. The Democrats hold 66.1% of those registered in a party. 21.9% of the voters declined to state their political affiliation.[77]

Local party platforms center on affordable housing, education and economic development. Controversial political issues in Manhattan include development, noise, and the cost of housing.

Manhattan is divided between four congressional districts, all of which are represented by Democrats.

Charles Rangel represents the 15th district in Upper Manhattan, which incorporates Harlem, Spanish Harlem, Washington Heights, Inwood and parts of the Upper West Side.
Jerrold Nadler represents the 8th district, based on the West Side which covers most of the Upper West Side, 's Kitchen, Chelsea, Greenwich Village, Chinatown, Tribeca and Battery Park City, as well as some sections of Southwest Brooklyn.
Carolyn Maloney represents the 14th district, the so-called "Silk Stocking" district which was the political base for Teddy Roosevelt and John Lindsay. It covers most of the Upper East Side, Yorkville, Gramercy Park, the East Village, Roosevelt Island and most of the Lower East Side, as well as portions of western Queens.
Nydia Velazquez of the Brooklyn-Queens based 12th district, represents a few heavily Puerto Rican sections of the Lower East Side.
No Republican has won the presidential election in Manhattan since 1924, when Calvin Coolidge won a plurality of the New York County vote over Democrat John W. Davis, 41.20%–39.55%. Warren G. Harding was the most recent Republican presidential candidate to win a majority of the Manhattan vote, with 59.22% of the 1920 vote.[78] In the 2004 presidential election, Democrat John Kerry received 82.1% of the vote in Manhattan and Republican George W. Bush received 16.7%.[79] The borough is the most important source of funding for presidential campaigns in the United States; in 2004, it was home to six of the top seven zip codes in the nation for political contributions.[80] The top ZIP code, 10021 on the Upper East Side, generated the most money for the United States presidential election for all presidential candidates, including both Kerry and Bush during the 2004 election.[81]

not sure i understand your point...significant fund raising goes on in the upper east side because that where a lot of well to do folks live, it's one of the richest zip codes in the US...but Kerry still won the state 59% to 40% for bush.

mccain may raise cash in NYC but he has a snowballs chance in of winning the state despite what any poll in September says.

[Findog]

There were polls in 2004 that showed Bush compe ive in Oregon, Hawaii and California. NY is not in play, if we define that as a state that could go to either candidate.

[whottt]

There were polls in 2004 that showed Bush compe ive in Oregon, Hawaii and California. NY is not in play, if we define that as a state that could go to either candidate.

Yeah? And there were polls showing Obama would easily beat Hillary in California and Texas...


Your point?

[Findog]

Yeah? And there were polls showing Obama would easily beat Hillary in California and Texas...


Your point?

NY turning red is a pipe dream.

[whottt]

NY turning red is a pipe dream.

Ahh...my bad, I didn't get it the first 457 times you said it, talking wholly out of your ass.


Just think of how relevant that would be if I'd ever actually said NY was going red...


It'd be really relevant the 457 times you've said it, talking wholly out of your ass, then...wouldn't it?


Let me guess...you don't think NJ or Washington are going red either? I know you haven't said that 635 times in this thread, talking wholly out of your ass...I'm just naturally intuitive I suppose. Call it a hunch ROLL INGEYES

[Findog]

Ahh...my bad, I didn't get it the first 457 times you said it, talking wholly out of your ass.


Just think of how relevant that would be if I'd ever actually said NY was going red...


It'd be really relevant the 457 times you've said it, talking wholly out of your ass, then...wouldn't it?


Let me guess...you don't think NJ or Washington are going red either? I know you haven't said that 635 times in this thread, talking wholly out of your ass...I'm just naturally intuitive I suppose. Call it a hunch ROLL INGEYES

And of course you've never repeated yourself in this thread, whottt. It's not like we've heard umpteen times that "we're going to be in for a surprise" on Election Day and that New York "is in play." Nope, no reiteration for whottt. He never says the same thing twice.

[florige]

Obama pulls ahead......




http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_oba...5_zogby911.php

[Crookshanks]

And of course you've never repeated yourself in this thread, whottt. It's not like we've heard umpteen times that "we're going to be in for a surprise" on Election Day and that New York "is in play." Nope, no reiteration for whottt. He never says the same thing twice.

Ahh - but the difference is that he usually has facts to back up what he's saying. His general point is that, even if NY stays blue, the shift towards McCain in numerous polls, in several states, has got to cause some concern in the Obama camp.

[florige]

Pretty good week for Obama so far.

[Findog]

Ahh - but the difference is that he usually has facts to back up what he's saying. His general point is that, even if NY stays blue, the shift towards McCain in numerous polls, in several states, has got to cause some concern in the Obama camp.

Does it make sense that Virginia is trending towards Obama while New York trends towards McCain? No, it doesn't. The current national and state polls have good and bad news for both campaigns.

[florige]

http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/


Has him up one point. I would like to see him get it up around 5-6 point lead before the debates.

[Findog]

http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/


Has him up one point. I would like to see him get it up around 5-6 point lead before the debates.

I think it is far more likely that we'll see a repeat of 2000 if he can't open up a lead outside of the margin of error. The first debate is a week from Friday, the race will most likely still be tight as of then.

I keep looking at the electoral map and I'm fairly confident Obama can win the popular vote, but it's looking increasingly likely that Florida and Ohio are out of reach. That leaves Virginia, which is polling well for Obama, but I don't trust that Virginia can turn blue, and the mountain states.

[florige]

I think it is far more likely that we'll see a repeat of 2000 if he can't open up a lead outside of the margin of error. The first debate is a week from Friday, the race will most likely still be tight as of then.

I keep looking at the electoral map and I'm fairly confident Obama can win the popular vote, but it's looking increasingly likely that Florida and Ohio are out of reach. That leaves Virginia, which is polling well for Obama, but I don't trust that Virginia can turn blue, and the mountain states.

I know FL is looking to be turning red, but what are the latest numbers in OH? The last I checked it was still fairly close.

[whottt]

And of course you've never repeated yourself in this thread, whottt. It's not like we've heard umpteen times that "we're going to be in for a surprise" on Election Day and that New York "is in play." Nope, no reiteration for whottt. He never says the same thing twice.

Usually with the introduction of new information, or correcting people who keep saying I said that state would flip.
Whereas you just say, "it's gong to be blue".

[whottt]

Yeah all the states are moving away from Obama so I'm wondering where they are polling to get those figures.

[Findog]

Yeah all the states are moving away from Obama so I'm wondering where they are polling to get those figures.

Virginia is moving towards Obama, it's substantiated by more than one poll, so figure that one out.