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McCain is screwed if these numbers hold any truth geez! What a turn of events....
WTF is up with these polls guys? They are saying now that Obama is 1 down behind McCain in NC...., and tied with him in FL......
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/...oll/index.html
McCain is screwed if these numbers hold any truth geez! What a turn of events....
Obama's easiest path to the Presidency is simply kerry states + iowa + virginia.
First McCain shows significant strides in a true Blue state and now Obama is only 1 point behind in a significant Red state?
In my opinion, we're going to see something close to the Bush 2004 electoral map. McCain basically had two choices since he knew he was going to lose:First McCain shows significant strides in a true Blue state and now Obama is only 1 point behind in a significant Red state?
A) He could tap Lieberman as his VP, figuring that the GOP base had nowhere to go, and really try to fight on Obama's change turf as a couple of centrist Mavericks who had bucked their parties to do what is right for America. A national unity ticket like that would've been intriguing, because they could somewhat plausibly claim that a dem-rep ticket is unique and immune to the usual partisanship. The only risk is that the RNC and the rank and file voters wouldn't really come out for him, and he wouldn't have the GOP's ground game on November 4th.
B) Instead, he was told in no uncertain terms by his party that a pro-choice Veep was unacceptable, so he went with a sop to the far right with Palin. So this basically entails that he will try to duplicate the 2004 electoral map, eschewing issues in favor of personalities and another edition of the culture wars, basically Rove's 50% +1 strategy.
The whole thing about how he and Palin are "Mavericks" going to change D.C. and how she's the queen of earmark reform, against all evidence, shows that McCain chose Option B but is trying to convince people he actually chose Option A.
This was the set of polls I was waiting for. A decent amount of good news in there for Obama. The ones that stick out to me are ARG CO which shows McCain up 2 (not good news), CNN FL showing Obama +4 which is excellent news although I take it with a grain of salt pending more polls, CNN NC McCain only up 1 which I take with an even LARGER grain of salt, ARG Obama NM Obama +7 which seems too strong but is a good sign for the western states, ARG NV McCain +3 which kinda sucks, CNN OH Obama +2 seems wrong considering McCain has ben up here in like 4 straight polls always around +4 points so I'm not too sure about this one.
Lots of good news in those, but I'd love to see them verify before throwing a party. I think McCain's new ad today was waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better than Obama's 2 minute ad. WTF is Obama thinking going to the 2 minute ad? That does not work. The ad he had yesterday was great, and he may have just blown an opportunity to keep pushing down with his foot on McCain's throat.
So they're polling Virginia for a National Poll?
I've seen more than one poll in the last 3 days that has Obama either tied or ahead in Virginia. While the poll results may differ as to what percentage of voters are going for McCain or Obama, they are showing the same movement in Obama's direction. I am having a really hard time believing that Virginia is going to go for Obama, but the polls right now are giving him a good chance of winning the state. I think his best bet to 270 is to sweep Colorado, NM and Nevada with their high hispanic populations.
Among the largest contributors to Obama's campaign:
Time Warner $338,527 <----- That's CNN btw....and Time.
And you guys think Haliburton giving Cheney bonus money from before he was even elected VP is a conflict of interest? Get ing serious man.
CNN consistently and easily polls the lowest against the Republicans.
Called by whottt earlier in this thread:
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/bl...odhoretz/31061
Shock Poll: Jews Now Favor McCain in New York, 54-32
John Podhoretz - 09.17.2008 - 6:17 PM
The Siena poll, one of the two key polls of New York state voters, has come out with its monthly snapshot of the presidential race in the Empire State. And it’s stunning. It is remarkable, though not eye-opening, that John McCain is now only 5 points behind Barack Obama, 46-41 – not shocking because polls have narrowed to similar margins in New Jersey. (It should be noted, however, that according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday, Obama is leading in New York by 55-42.)
No, the shocking detail has to do with a wild, 35-point swing toward McCain among Jewish voters. Obama led among them by a margin of 50-37 in August. This month, McCain is actually leading Obama by a margin of 54 percent to 32 percent.
Siena polled 626 likely voters this month. Of those, according to Steve Greenberg, the spokesman for the Siena poll, 77 were Jews, or 12 percent of the sample. That is Siena’s best guess of the size of the Jewish vote in New York state in November. With a sample size that small, the margin of error for the Jewish voter sample is plus-or-minus 11 points.
That means the poll could be off by as many as 11 points in either direction — i.e., McCain could be leading by as little as 11 points or by as many as 33.
The only difference between the September poll and the August poll as a matter of methodology is that in September, Siena polled likely voters, whereas in August it only polled registered voters.
The poll could, of course, be an outlier. But if it even begins to approximate the truth, it is huge news. No Republican has scored more than 39 percent of the Jewish vote in modern times, and that was Ronald Reagan in 1980, following a series of missteps by the Carter administration. These sorts of numbers for McCain have implications in two other states particularly — Florida and Pennsylvania.
In Florida, the implications are obvious. Obama’s own Jewish organizers in Florida are telling the campaign they are finding profound resistance to him, particularly in South Florida. The polling overall there seems to be moving inexorably in McCain’s direction, which is necessary for him; it is nearly impossible to see how he can win the election if he loses Florida.
But what about Pennsylvania? That is a state it appears Obama must win. There are, it is estimated, more than 200,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, a state John Kerry won by 140,000 votes. If we assume Pennsylvania’s 200,000 voting Jews voted in the same way as Jews nationwide in 2004 and went 76-24 for Kerry, we can attribute 150,000 Jewish votes to Kerry, his entire margin of victory plus seven percent. Now imagine if that number had been closer to 50-50. Kerry would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 150,000. Bush would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 50,000. Kerry’s margin of victory would then have shrunk to 40,000 votes.
It appears Obama may have a tougher time in Pennsylvania than Kerry did because of his difficulty attracting the ethnic white vote in the western part of the state. If there is a Jewish swing away from him as well, he really could lose there. And if he loses there and loses Ohio, he is sunk. Ohio has approximately 80,000 Jewish voters, so a swing away from Obama to a 50-50 race would cost him 25,000 votes Kerry presumably received in 2004 — and in a state that Bush won by 121,000 votes.
We’ll need more data from two other states with a significant Jewish population to allow for a measurable sample size in a poll – Florida and California – and a polling firm willing to break out the Jewish vote as Siena has, to see whether this is just statistical smoke or whether Obama has a brushfire he needs to put out somehow before it consumes him.
John Podheretz's analysis does not concern me.
I know...the only thing concerns you is what comes out of your ass...noted.
I know your opinion Findog...no need to keep restating it.
Latest New Mexico Poll:
Thursday, September 18
Race Poll Results Spread
New Mexico SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Numerous recent polls have had them tied for McCain in the lead.
None of these polls are making sense..there's one poll that only has Obama up by 5 in Illinois.
It's still too early for these polls to make sense. We still haven't had any debates yet and I think a lot of the support on both sides is "soft" and may change over the next 50 days. The polls at this point are nothing more than talking points for the 24 news networks to kill ten minutes at a time.
It's like on Morning Joe. Every morning, they have Chuck Todd pull out the interactive electoral map and go through that day's polls and different electoral vote scenarios. Every friggin' morning. Things don't change that much day to day and if they do, it's probably too unreliable to merit discussion.
I mean some of it makes sense...you know all this economic is going to be aimed at Bush and McCain is going to get the fallout by default. That I understand...but it almost seems like every state except for the small diehard red and blue states, are moving towards the middle. And for some of them it makes no sense.
McCain's bounce has officially faded. Obama is already +2-4 pts ahead in most national polls and we are only mid-week. By the end of the week I expect him to have a comfortable +3-4 pt lead that he will hold onto going into the debates.
Barring some major gaffe in the debate I fully expect Obama to be the favorite come election day. He just needs to stay on message and hammer the out of McCain and the Republicans on the economy.
And whottt, welcome politics. It's called a post convention bounce. And it's over for John McCain.
I agree with Whott - some of these polls just don't make any sense. Like the NC one - on September 11th, McCain had a 17 point lead; and now they're saying he's only up by 1? I just don't believe it.
I guess we all need to remember that many of these polls are going to be weighted in favor of one party over the other - very few, if any, are truly unbiased.
But after all is said and done - the only number that matters is 270!
As we get closer to election day I think we're likely to see more of a polling effect of Obama's advantadge on the ground. I'm not sure how this will manifest itself and how much of an advantadge at the polls it will be in the end, but once reason we're going to see results that are odd is because of that. Some polls will measure and account for this better than others.
I think the only way this will really be reflected is in the number of registered voters. Many of the polls right now use a slightly larger sample of Democrats than Republicans to reflect the larger number of registered Democrats this year. That larger number stems, at least in part, from the campaign's efforts during the Democratic primary.
If Obama really does have the ground game advantage that we hear about, he should out perform his polls in these areas. We'll see.
There's absolutely no doubt that he has a huge ground game advantage. I'm not sold that it will translate well at the voting booth, but given the big interest in the democratic primary coupled with Obama spending money to build "on the ground" much more and earlier than McCain there is absolutely no doubt he has a big time advantage there.
EDIT: I see you posted some indicators of that.
Also only certain polls are weighted by party ID. And a lot of the weird poll to poll results we're getting are because the pollsters are switching from likely to registered voters and vice versa.
I'm not sure which pollsters are using party ID in a weighted manner but I'm sure some digging around on fivethirtyeight.com will turn up this info.
Well, the ground game is what help "W" win over Kerry. Kerry tried to buy a ground game by outsourcing his voter registration and get out the vote efforts. "W" relied on churches and the like, and as a consequence, had a more determined and reliable effort on election day.
Obama's up in Indiana?
Surprising, but still too early to mean anything.
Some more polls from RCP:
Race Poll Results Spread
Wisconsin Rasmussen Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Oregon Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
The Oregon poll is truly bizarre.
Yeah I don't buy Obama up in Indiana and I don't buy McCain at 47 in Oregon. WTF @ no undecideds? Did they just give them all to McCain?
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