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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/
Latest RCP Electoral Map has McCain up 216-212
9 ing tossup states
Todays polls:
Code:Thursday, September 18 Race Poll Results Spread Virginia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 48, Obama 46 McCain +2 Colorado InAdv/PollPosition Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10 Georgia InAdv/PollPosition McCain 51, Obama 43 McCain +8 Florida SurveyUSA McCain 51, Obama 45 McCain +6 National Gallup Tracking McCain 44, Obama 48 Obama +4 National Rasmussen Tracking McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie New Mexico SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8 Georgia SurveyUSA McCain 57, Obama 41 McCain +16 Indiana Indy Star/Selzer McCain 44, Obama 47 Obama +3 Vermont Rasmussen Obama 60, McCain 36 Obama +24 National Quinnipiac McCain 45, Obama 49 Obama +4 Ohio National Journal/FD McCain 42, Obama 41 McCain +1 Florida National Journal/FD McCain 44, Obama 44 Tie Virginia National Journal/FD McCain 48, Obama 41 McCain +7 Colorado National Journal/FD Obama 45, McCain 44 Obama +1 New Mexico National Journal/FD Obama 49, McCain 42 Obama +7 National Battleground Tracking* McCain 47, Obama 45 McCain +2
Everyday these polls are completely reversed in some of these states.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/
Latest RCP Electoral Map has McCain up 216-212
9 ing tossup states
Yeah some are just odd. I think you have to take into consideration when they were sampled though as well as the internals of each poll. Its tough to do a generic comparison of different polls without first providing a larger context.
It is interesting that another poll shows Obama with a lead in Indiana. That would be a damn coup.
You have to admit it is incredibly exciting, Whottt. I'm addicted to news and blogs right now. I'm popping open my laptop in between every class to get my info fix.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/
Latest RCP Electoral Map has McCain up 216-212
9 ing tossup states
Obama is having a good week. I would look at the poll numbers that from next Monday, they should reflect this entire week.
Obama campaigning in CO was a great move. He takes this state and NM and it's game, set, match.
We haven't even had the first debate, and I suspect BOTH campaigns have some surprises in store for us (wouldn't doubt the Clintons have a secret bomb yet to throw: Hillary 2012)
Thats not what I said, but you already knew that.
Racism = ignorance. If you are racist, then you are ignorant. There is no gray area.
But as a voter, it is your right to vote in anyway you deem cogent.
Doesnt make it sit any better with me, personally, that these people are the lowest common denominator society has to offer, and a voting bloc a candidate actually has to pander to.
It's still too early. There is still alot of mudslinging from both sides that will enable people to still change their minds.....
Obama will get a surge from the democrat led market crash, but the truth will come out and Obama will trail by Monday.
Well played. Well played, sir.
Anyway, fivethirtyeight.com has updated maps and charts showing Obama back in the lead in their simulations but the detailed poll analysis isn't posted yet.
That's what I can't believe. It's just a given this state is Republican.
He has been hitting this state awfully hard though. Obviously, it's working.
Last edited by SpursFanFirst; 09-18-2008 at 05:22 PM.
Obama's campaign is investing massive amounts of time and energy in Indiana. I have a hard time believing Indiana could turn blue, but my guess is that he wants to force McCain to spend a lot of money and resources defending the state so Obama has an easier chance of flipping another state like Virginia or Colorado.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/us...ll&oref=slogin
WASHINGTON — Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a “typical Republican” who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support — particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate — but the latest poll indicates “the Palin effect” was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest. The contest appeared to be roughly where it was before the two conventions and before the vice-presidential selections: Mr. Obama had the support of 48 percent of registered voters, compared with 43 percent for Mr. McCain, a difference within the poll’s margin of sampling error, and statistically unchanged from the tally in the last New York Times/CBS News poll, in mid-August.
The poll showed that Mr. McCain had some enduring strengths, including a substantial advantage over Mr. Obama as a potential commander in chief. It found that for the first time, 50 percent of those surveyed in the Times/CBS News poll said they considered that the troop buildup in Iraq, a policy that Mr. McCain championed from the start, had made things better there.
The poll also underlined the extent to which Mr. McCain’s convention, and his selection of Ms. Palin, had excited Republican base voters about his candidacy, which is no small thing in a contest that continues to be so tight: 47 percent of Mr. McCain’s supporters described themselves as enthused about the Republican Party’s presidential ticket, almost twice what it was before the conventions. As often happens at this time of year, partisans are coalescing around their party’s nominees and independents are increasingly the battleground.
But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin’s selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among women in general. White women were evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women, 44 percent to 37 percent.
By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.
Among other groups, Mr. Obama had a slight edge among independents, and a 16-percentage-point lead among voters ages 18 to 44. Mr. McCain was leading by 17 points among white men and by the same margin among voters 65 and over. Before the convention, voters 65 and older were closely divided. In the latest poll, middle-age voters, 45 to 64, were almost evenly divided between the two.
The latest Times/CBS News nationwide telephone poll was taken Friday through Tuesday with 1,133 adults, including 1,004 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all respondents and for registered voters.
The poll was taken during a period of extraordinary turmoil on Wall Street. By overwhelming numbers, Americans said the economy was the top issue affecting their vote decision, and they continued to express deep pessimism about the nation’s economic future. They continued to express greater confidence in Mr. Obama’s ability to manage the economy, even as Mr. McCain has aggressively sought to raise doubts about it.
This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin’s qualifications to be president, particularly compared with Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Mr. Obama’s running mate. More than 6 in 10 said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines.
And 75 percent said they thought Mr. McCain had picked Ms. Palin more to help him win the election than because he thought that she was well qualified to be president; by contrast, 31 percent said they thought that Mr. Obama had picked Mr. Biden more to help him win the election, while 57 percent said it was because he thought Mr. Biden was well qualified for the job.
This poll was taken right after Ms. Palin sat down for a series of high-profile interviews with Charles Gibson on ABC News.
Over the last two weeks, Mr. McCain has increasingly tried to distance himself from his party and President Bush, running as an outsider against Washington. The poll suggested the urgency of Mr. McCain’s task: The percentage of Americans who disapprove of the way Mr. Bush is conducting his job, 68 percent, was as high as it has been for any sitting president in the history of New York Times polling. And 81 percent said the country was heading in the wrong direction.
The poll found that 46 percent of voters thought Mr. McCain would continue Mr. Bush’s policies, while 22 percent said he would be more conservative than Mr. Bush. (About one-quarter said a McCain presidency would be less conservative than Mr. Bush’s.) At a time when Mr. McCain has tried to appeal to independent voters by separating himself from his party, notably with his convention speech, 57 percent of all voters said they viewed him as a typical Republican, compared with 40 percent who said he was a different kind of Republican.
Although nearly half of voters also described Mr. Obama as a typical Democrat, the party’s brand is not as diminished as the Republicans’; the Democratic Party had a favorability rating of 50 percent in August, compared with 37 percent for the Republicans, a fairly consistent trend in the Times/CBS News Poll since 2006, and part of the general political landscape that many analysts believe favors the Democrats.
In one of the sharpest differences highlighted in the poll, 37 percent said that Mr. McCain would bring real change to Washington, up from 28 percent before the two parties’ conventions. But 65 percent of those polled said that Mr. Obama would bring real change to Washington.
Despite weeks of fierce Republican attacks, Mr. Obama has maintained an edge on several key measures of presidential leadership, including economic stewardship. Sixty percent of voters said they were confident in his ability to make the right decisions on the economy, compared with 53 percent who felt that way about Mr. McCain. Sixty percent also said he understood the needs and problems “of people like yourself,” compared with 48 percent who said that of Mr. McCain.
More than twice as many said an Obama presidency would improve the image of the United States around the world, 55 percent, compared with those who believed a McCain presidency would do so. Mr. Obama also gets high marks for “sharing the values most Americans try to live by,” despite concerted Republican efforts to portray him as elite and out of touch with average voters. Sixty-six percent said Mr. Obama shared their values, compared with 61 percent who said that about Mr. McCain.
Mr. McCain, however, was maintaining some core advantages, particularly on preparedness to be president and ability to serve as commander in chief. Forty-eight percent said Mr. Obama was prepared enough to be president, compared with 71 percent who rated Mr. McCain as adequately prepared.
Fifty-two percent said it was “very likely” that Mr. McCain would be an effective commander in chief, twice as many as felt that way about Mr. Obama.
The two men received similar rankings when voters were asked about what had long been perceived as a McCain strength: the ability to make the right decisions about the war in Iraq. Fifty-two percent said they were “very” or “somewhat” confident in Mr. Obama’s ability on this front; 56 percent said they felt that way about Mr. McCain.
In general, Ms. Palin was viewed more favorably (40 percent) than unfavorably (30 percent). She was particularly popular among fellow Republicans, conservatives and white voters who describe themselves as evangelical Christians, which explains her energizing effect on the Republican base. Nearly 70 percent of Mr. McCain’s supporters said they were enthusiastic about the selection of Ms. Palin; 27 percent of Mr. Obama’s supporters said they were enthusiastic about the selection of Mr. Biden.
When asked who they thought would win in November, 45 percent said Mr. Obama and 38 percent said Mr. McCain.
Race is ignorant.
But as a voter, it is your right to vote in anyway you deem cogent.
Doesnt make it sit any better with me, personally, that these people are the lowest common denominator society has to offer, and a voting bloc a candidate actually has to pander to.
It's no different than refusing to vote for someone because of their party affiliation....party affiliation doesn't make you more intelligent, competent or honest.
There's no such thing as discrimination in casting your vote for the President...the discrimination would be not allowing some one on the ballot because of their sex or gender, or now allowing someone to vote.
There's absolutely no difference between not voting for someone because of their party affiliation or not voting for them because of their race...it is the exact same type of discrimination....and I agree it is ignorant.
As long as the economy is front and center Obama will continue to pull away. When we see the full effect of this week in the polls I predict Obama will be ahead in nearly all battleground states that matter.
This is clearly not McCain's strong suit, and Palin is of no help in this regard. I wonder if he has buyer's remorse now, Romney would have been a great pick to strengthen the ticket in this regard.
So like I was saying...the weights are off:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13584.html
New polling suggests that the Republican Party is beginning to regain some of its luster and, perhaps as important, is experiencing a surge in excitement among its political base.
A new poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press reports that independent voters have an equally favorable opinion of both parties, 50 to 49 percent, a one-point edge for the GOP. That compares to an 18-point Democratic advantage as recently as August, a wide gap that had generally held for more than a year.
And half of registered voters overall now have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, the highest GOP ranking in three years. Slightly more voters, 55 percent, continue to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
The GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate have also generated considerable enthusiasm among the party rank-and-file. Pew found that three in four Republicans express satisfaction with their presidential choice. In June, only half said the same.
The findings come as the Gallup Poll recently found that the Democratic generic lead among voters, when asked which party they prefer to control Congress, has withered to only 3 points, 48 to 45 percent. Democrats had a double-digit generic congressional advantage on the eve of the midterm elections.
The portion of the public that strongly supports the Republican ticket has grown from 17 percent in August to 25 percent today. Over the same period, Republicans expressing “strong support” for McCain jumped 16 points. Independents expressing “strong support” for McCain rose 9 points. Meanwhile, Democratic “strong support” for Obama rose 7 points, while his backing from independents dropped one point.
Today, Pew finds relative parity in party enthusiasm. Fully 62 percent of Democrats strongly back their candidate compared to 59 percent of Republicans. Democrats had a double digit enthusiasm advantage last month. Other polling has also showed the narrowing of the enthusiasm gap, a measure that can gauge prospective voter turnout.
A recent CBS/New York Times poll shows Obama still maintains a significant enthusiasm advantage. That poll shows that 61 percent of Obama voters are enthusiastic while 47 percent of McCain voters say the same. That marks a 13-point climb for Democrats and a 23-point climb for Republicans in enthusiasm, compared to polling prior to both party conventions.
Obama holds a narrow lead against McCain overall among registered voters in Pew’s polling, 46 to 44 percent, roughly the same margin as last month.
As with other surveys, McCain polls slightly better when the race is gauged among likely voters. Pew finds the presidential contest exactly tied at 46 percent with likely voters, which is considered a more accurate metric.
Whottt, this movie is over dude! Put a fork in it....
sorry I had to get you back for last week.....
The only thing is we will still have a month left. The debates could be it for them if Obama/Biden can win them.
Whottt, this movie is over dude! Put a fork in it....
sorry I had to get you back for last week.....
It is over
I haven't been this convinced of something since the 2003 Spurs went 9-1 on the road trip and I knew I was watching a soon to be NBA champion.
What Obama needs to do in the debates in convince the older Democrats who are leaning towards McCain that he is a safe pick. If Obama can solidify the Democratic base that should be enough to propel him to victory.
I'm a little worried about PA. Obama cannot afford to lose that state.
Yeah I know. He has to get that state. Unless he can nab Florida, but PA is the easier path for him.
It is over
I haven't been this convinced of something since the 2003 Spurs went 9-1 on the road trip and I knew I was watching a soon to be NBA champion.
I'm hoping your sucessful streak ends this year....
Obama up 9 in Mich, and up 2 in PA according to this new poll.....
Tied in OH.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archi...9/1424868.aspx
The McCain/Palin ship is sinking much faster than I expected....
That would be great. It's no use in picking up Colorado or New Mexico if we give back Pennsylvania or Michigan.
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