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Oh yeah I know. Just a little payback from last week. While I was sorta sure that Obama would at least break even this week, I didn't think that he would move ahead this quick and at such margins so close after the convention/Palin pick.
We're not Republicans that like to prematurely gloat. The media has a vested interest in keeping this a horse race, so if Obama really starts to consolidate his lead, watch for them to start handjobbing McCain to get him back up in the polls.The McCain/Palin ship is sinking much faster than I expected....
have no idea what you stiffs are looking at, but McCain still has a slight lead even after all the market drama. That spells doom for the wacko libs.
Conservatives = anti reality. Sorry, but Obama would win the election today. Time will tell if that holds true for November 4th as well.
The Hispanic vote will deliver both CO and NM for Obama. NM already looks like it's in Obama's bag, CO probably needs a little push to get there.
I sincerely doubt McCain will be able to nab PA. It's one thing to be tying Obama in the polls, but to actually win the state he has to be above Obama by at least +2 or +3. It's the same for Obama in FL.
Wrong.
RCP National Average 47.3 45.4 Obama +1.9
Favorable Ratings +17.3 +16.3 Obama +1.0
Intrade Market Odds 50.2 47.9 -
Source: Realclearpolitics.com
You fail.
McCain has shown that he is completely INCOMPETENT when it comes to the economy. Not acceptable, not sub-par. Incompetent. McCain lacks the ability to discern basic principles and yet he wants to change our entire economy for the better? It shows the naivete of this country that there are people here in this forum attempting to defend him still.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...?referrer=digg
Todays Polls:
Friday, September 19
Race Poll Results Spread
Iowa SurveyUSA Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
Indiana Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 47 McCain +2
Maine Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 46 Obama +4
National Gallup Tracking Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 45, McCain 44 Obama +1
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, McCain 48 Tie
Michigan Marist Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Alabama SurveyUSA McCain 64, Obama 34 McCain +30
Alaska Research 2000 McCain 55, Obama 38 McCain +17
Kentucky Research 2000 McCain 55, Obama 37 McCain +18
National Battleground Tracking Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie
Ohio Marist McCain 45, Obama 47 Obama +2
Pennsylvania Marist Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Ehh...these polls are ed up. Yesterday there was an Iowa Poll that showed them tied, today there is a Maryland poll that shows Obama only up by 4. Obama gained a point on Gallup and McCain gained a point on Rasmussen. I'm calling bull ...the polls are all over the place.
It comes down to picking and choosing which polls you want to believe......I say they are all bull for now.
Luckily Palin's T's are still retaining their luster.
Yeah but not as much as Obama's nutsac...
Using favorability numbers lmao. Per electoral-vote mccain has the lead. Considering we have the most unpopular pres. and the econ is close to the great depression part II you guys suck. Leave it to a dem to screw this up.
Last edited by 2centsworth; 09-19-2008 at 11:50 PM.
I think I am starting to agree with you to some respect about these polls. But I don't know, there are ALOT more anti-Obama people here verses the last two elections. Plus we have a lying POS democratic governor who just got into office and is pissing alot of people off. So that MD # may be accurate.
Certain polls are more unreliable than others. The problem is when people try to look at one poll and decide what it alone means. You need to look at them in the proper context.
First, what are other polls in the state saying? If 3 polls have a state tied and one has the state as a 10 point differential what is the likely situation?
What is the pollsters record? For instance, SUSA has a great record. Marist on the other hand, is weak. Obviously I'm going to believe SUSA polls before Marist.
I don't have a problem with discounting individual outlier polls that don't make sense. They're likely statistical anomalies. But the fact is that the vast majority of polls this week are trending strongly for Obama. That isn't poll noise. And I'm not convinced its all due to the economy issue, either. I think Palin fatigue has begun to set in, and I believe that was the initial reason you started to see this trend.
Oh and I've already been asked if I'm registerd by Obama supporters here in MI and I've been here less than a day. They are everywhere registering people in huge huge huge numbers. Its impossible to avoid them. The ground game here is strong for Obama. Really really strong.
Thanks for the report Manny!
It's strong in PA, too.
I don't see the National Polls reflected in the State Polls, and I don't really see a big swing in State Polls once you look at all of them...
Beyond that...I would like to restate that Obama is having problems in states like Oregon, Washington and New Jersey...this is being confirmed by multiple polls and it's a trend that's staying. Beyond that...the big gains this week were Colorado, New Mexico and I guess Michigan, but it's really only reflected in one poll.
Furthermore...in some polls, the number of people indentifying themselves as Republicans is now greater than the number of people identifying themselves as Democrats(as posted earlier in this thread)...and none of these polls are factoring that in.
Comprared to who, Obama?
I think Palin fatigue has begun to set in, and I believe that was the initial reason you started to see this trend.
There is scant evidence of that outside the polls...
That doesn't mean those people are going to vote. And if those people are being pushy about signing up...there's going to be a backlash once those people step into the voting booth....
Do the Jevhovas witnesses cramming their ideology down your throat make you want to be a Jehova's Witness? Even when you take the pamplet?
1. State polls always lag behind the national polls but I don't see how you can say his lead isn't reflected in the state polls. It most definitely is. I'm not sure how you're trying to translate a certain lead in the national polls into showing up a certain way in the state polls but I doubt you can accurately do that.
2. I'm not sure why you're saying that republicans are outnumber dems but that may be the case in certain places, and it may even be the case nationally (I'm not really buying that though) but what is undeniable is that in most if not all the swing states Dems are largely registering new voters at a far better pace than the GOP. Its not even close.
As for Palin, its undeniable that she's lost a lot of luster. She was the brand new toy a few weeks ago but her favorability ratings have come down drastically since then. She's going to rally the base still, and there's no doubt about that, but she's not giong to get independents much less democrats in any serious manner. She's not going to win this election for McCain.
You add in that right now McCain really does look like he's flat out scrambling. He's flaling. The Obama remark on him being paniced was GREAT and it really showed him hitting his stride today. And whats going to change the narrative? McCain is constantly playing catch up and he doesn't have many more events that can change the flow. He's got the debates and thats it.
~Manny
If you're going try to make an argument that having an extensive ground operation is going to hurt Obama then don't bother making it to me. Thats just flat out ridiculous.
Sure, a few people maybe turned off in the manner you suggest but the fact is that having a motivated and extensive force registering new voters and trying to get new votes is going to do FAR more good than bad.
This is one reason those Indiana polls are what they are right now. McCain has almost no money in that state while Obama is putting a decent amount in. And we're seeing the polls shift because of this.
Campaign operations at the ground level in these states matter and to say they hurt is foolish.
~Manny
Something just doesn't feel right...
Here's one example of what I mean:
2. I'm not sure why you're saying that republicans are outnumber dems but that may be the case in certain places, and it may even be the case nationally (I'm not really buying that though) but what is undeniable is that in most if not all the swing states Dems are largely registering new voters at a far better pace than the GOP. Its not even close.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost...&postcount=591
See that whole rally the base thing is off...she is a moderate politician...something that has been expertely covered up...but she is.As for Palin, its undeniable that she's lost a lot of luster. She was the brand new toy a few weeks ago but her favorability ratings have come down drastically since then. She's going to rally the base still, and there's no doubt about that, but she's not giong to get independents much less democrats in any serious manner. She's not going to win this election for McCain.
She's already rallied the base..now all she's got to do is prove she's not a far right winger in terms of governance, as she has been wrongly glossed.
The more she talks, the more that is going to be factor.
Right now half the people thing she's going to impose creationism in schools and overturn Roe V Wade. That's a scare tactic...and she's focused on taking that scare tactic out....and by the time the debates are over, she'll have done that.
I've seen her answer the abortion question before in a debate...she does it extremely well...and her record shows nothing but centrist leadership on social issues.
Yeah...whoever's running McCain's campaign isn't doing that hot of a job of it. I'll give you that. Making the wrong attacks, not responding fast enough...but I don't think Obama's been coming off well lately himself.You add in that right now McCain really does look like he's flat out scrambling. He's flaling. The Obama remark on him being paniced was GREAT and it really showed him hitting his stride today. And whats going to change the narrative? McCain is constantly playing catch up and he doesn't have many more events that can change the flow. He's got the debates and thats it.
~Manny
Obama is inexperienced and at a loss for words sometimes, and it shows...he's not inspiring confidence...and neither is Biden. Palin does that...she does it better than anyone in this election.
And beynd that...the BS that Obama's followers are doing to Palin is pissing people off.
That Ten Democratic Rep's son hacking her email is not a positive for Obama.
Last edited by whottt; 09-20-2008 at 01:30 AM.
Let's revisit this, and here's exactly what I mean:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/
Obama's down to 202 EV on their map now(from 206 or 207 a few days ago) and he's only got 45 leaner EV votes. This even as his RCP average has been rising...
You guys are focusing on Colorado and NM...but are you looking at what's going on in Minnesota, and WI? And guess where McCain has been campaigning lately...MN and WI for IA and Colo is a win for McCain....all the way.
That's why I am curuous...where are they polling in these National polls...he's losing ground everywhere but Colorado and NM and I guess Mich in state polls.
Not to mention NJ, Wash, Or, NH, are all now leaners or moving towards tossups....with Maryland looking to join the party soon. That's a bad trend for Obama. Especially considering he polled high in the Primaries. He's losing ground in more states than he's gaining ground...losing ground in Democratic strongholds, while McCain has locked all of his strongholds but VA up just about.
Last edited by whottt; 09-20-2008 at 02:15 AM.
Changing religions verses casting a single vote is not a good analogy to use whottt.....
Obama regains the lead......
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
I guess it's time for Whottt to trot out his "these polls are ed up" line again.
Changing religions verses casting a single vote is not a good analogy to use whottt.....
I'd say it's an excellent analogy.
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