Ok but you left out two important categories.
(ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal: 23
Moderate: 41
Conservative: 32
Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:
Democrat: 38
Republican: 28
Independent: 29
How many liberals do you know who call themselves liberal?
At least this is a question people are more ceratin of.
I see the first point as irelavant. I found it laughable that 23% called themselves liberal, but 54% are registered or lean democrat. That difference between how one feels they are left to right vs. how they lean shows me people just don't rate themselves in an unbiased manner.
At least 1.
K - lets just throw that ONE poll out since you hate the internals so much.
Want to disqualify the rest of the polls too? Go ahead and pick apart their internals.
I'll be waiting right here.
Notice, when Obama was doing poorly in those polls I didn't sit here and discredit them. I took them at face value. I really don't care if some of you do the same or not, but to sit there and blow off all of the polling data because you hate a single set of internals on a single poll is ing idiocy.
If you want to come forth with true statistical evidence as to why we should invalidate certain polls then I'm all ears (look at my pictures LDO), but don't give me anecdotal evidence or evidence from one source and try to make a point about what is a spectrum wide trend.
I'll give you some anecdotal evidence...there were more registered Democrats than Republicans in 04...which is why many polls said Kerry would win. They were wrong. I think that's even more the case right now...
The Democratic Primaries were very exciting this past year, the most exciting primaries in history, while the Republican Primaries were a snooze fest.
I am a registered Democrat as we speak(and I was in 04 as well from voting for Gore) and I didn't even vote in the Republican primary this year.
That said...I have absolutely no proof that the polls are inaccurate other than the fact that they swing wildly, but basically it's just an extremely strong feeling. I'll concede that Obama is up right now...but I don't concede he's up by as much as the polls are showing....he wasn't that impressive last week. He really wasn't.
The polls did not predict a Kerry win in 04. Just an FYI.
I would look into them more if they made the data available. Only some of the polls make that data available.
I have no desire to find the ones that list their internals in the past. I was responding to a question of a claim in another posting. However, I've looked into enough internals, that I believe they do bias them as they want to. Like I pointed out on that one poll, if they adjusted the democrat to republican percentages, McCain would win by about 50 to 44 rather than Obama winning 52 to 42. It's just how you read the data. Statistics are often misread, and I could actually be resing them wrong for that matter.
Again, only the Nov 4th poll matters.
You're such a joke.
I didn't ask for excuses, if you have the data to invalidate the polls then provide it or kindly STFU (or admit you're talking out of your ass) IMO.
http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm
And I call bull on that Zogby as well...that er did predict Kerry would win....by 2 pts IIRC.
Be sure to look at the Fox Poll BTW.
BTW, here is some more evidence posted earlier in this thread:
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost...&postcount=591
If worse comes to worst I will default to the Rasmussn National....which was pretty much dead on in 2004...I can see Obama being up 3 right now, but up 5-9 points as some of these other polls are saying...I don't see it. Plus, there are extreme swings from poll to poll in some of these states.
More evidence the poll weights are off:
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.c...ExMjdiZDU0NTM=
Want more? McCain and Palin are outdrawing Obama in the same venues now...in a way that's indicative of the motivation to go out and vote as well.
Can you honestly say Obama pretty much saying as little as possible was impressive? It wasn't...in fact it was exactly typical of what has been hurting Obama recently...a clear trend of indecisiveness and overthinking in an attempt to say or do the right thing. It's real...
Another thing to take into consideration with any poll is whether they are talking about registered voters or LIKELY voters. I heard a woman call into Rush's show today and she said at her daughter's university in Florida, the dems are actually paying the students to register to vote!
So yeah, the dems may have more REGISTERED voters, but will that translate into actual votes... I guess we'll see on Nov. 4th. However, history has shown that the younger people (18-24) are much less likely to vote than the older demographic groups. I brought this point up earlier when some people were laughing about McCain/Palin drawing an estimated crowd of 60,000 at a retirement center.
Put 60,000 retirees against 60,000 college students and see who has the bigger percentage of actual votes!
I dunno. How many of those 60,000 retirees would make it to the election? If you get my drift.
Thing is...I know beyond all doubt many more Dems are voting Republican in this election than Republicans will be voting Dem.
More Dems are going to vote for McCain than voted for Bush...beyond all doubt.
If it was a secondhand source on Rush, it must be true!
3 words - Margin of Error
Thats not evidence the weights are off. Thats evidence that the Republican's base was becoming more excited. You're assuming the pollsters are not taking this into account. Show me the internals you think are off, Whottt.
Ok, so use the polls only with likely voters if it makes you feel better. Check with those polls and tell me who's leading them.
Source of these thoughts that is outside of Whottt's head? If you want to believe this, then by all means you're free to do so. But that doesn't mean its going to carry much weight without some actual evidence for me.
I will agree that after the events of today and new polls are a bit dated because there will obviously be a reaction to this within those polls. I'm not sure which way they'll move or how much the movement will be, but we'll see.
The poll weightings are NOT off. The fact is MORE Democrats have been registered since '04 than Republicans. This is a fact. There are more registered Democrats in this country than Republicans.
Any pollster worth his adjusts the party ID to reflect this. Rasmussen is very conservative and gives the Democrats a +5 percentage advantage of Republicans, but most pollsters agree that the number is somewhere closer to +10.
These guys know how to do their jobs. There's a vast amount of data there and there's even a lot of raw data and even if you weight them more torwards the Republicans favor it still shows Barak in the lead just a smaller lead.
This isn't a small bit of data, its the entire spectrum of polling that we're seeing. I simply think its funny that people here love to point to something in one poll they think is off to try to discredit the entirety of polls.
Thats what happens when the candidate you support is behind. You try to spin different scenarios to try to make the situation look not so bad.
Opinion
We know.
Kind of like Dems were doing earlier in this thread.
Bottom line is simply that the country is going through a devastating financial crisis. The Republicans hold the White House. EVERYTHING else is academic. In bent parties do not win in situations like this. I just wish the country could rally behind a united "throw the bums out" banner - to throw Congressmen and Women to the curb!
What amazes me, despite the horrible news every minute on the crisis - is that this is still, at all, a race. Obama is a historically weak candidate, IMO. Don't talk about unfair campaign tactics, stupidity of American people; racism; all irrelevant. Obama has not been able to distance himself from McCain. He's got more money; he's got better press, he's got an historically reviled and unpopular president to run against, he's got an opponent not well liked by his own party and, most importantly, he's got a general feeling of doom and gloom in the nation working in his favor. And yet, he hasn't closed the deal.
Obama's gonna win; I just cannot see a scenario that suggest otherwise right now; but unless he changes the landscape significantly between now and election day, he starts as a weak president; with little mandate. He needs Congress to be succesfull; and if his mandate isn't any more than it's looking like it's going to be; it's gonna be tough.
Dems ed up. Should have nominated Hillary. She'd have cut McCain's heart out by now.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote