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i hate politicians
gonna be very interesting to see just how much the market drops this week.
i hate politicians
Flea Market ?
Down 553 (about 5%) and no bottom yet.
This is going to get bad. Very, very bad.
This plan, for all of its warts, offered a way to short-circuit a rescession before it got too bad.Ample no votes came from both the Democratic and Republican sides of the aisle. More than two-thirds of Republicans and 40 percent of Democrats opposed the bill.
You can expect to see the other shoe drop in the coming week:
Many more bank failures, followed by some insurance companies in the coming month.
Let the panic begin.
Personally, I am leaving my wifes IRA right where it is. We don't need the money for 25 years, so this will be long over by then.
If you are not going to need your money for another 10 years or so, it would be best to leave it where it is at, and keep socking some away.
So, when do we start the riots and cannibalism?
I don't agree. We're already there if not very close. Banks have cut the meat of their lending out and did so long ago. The bail out slows reform if not eliminates it completely. The lending criteria, which is what this entire country is built on, wouldn't be any better one way or the other. At least with no bail out there is the chance that real change would come of it but at this point the meat of what drove this economy is void to begin with.
They'll get their bail out. It will happen. I hope it doesn't.
According to some conspiracy theorists, we will start being herded into "FEMA Death Camps" in the coming months.
Probably a bit extreme, but if some form of government support is not given soon to the financial sector, as sucky as that sounds, we will all bear the brunt of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.
Notice I did not say "one of", I said "the".
All it will take is for foreigners to stop demanding US debt. If that crisis of confidence happens, yikes.
I really don't know how bad it will end up getting, but it is not over yet by far.
I give a recession to be 100% certain. The only question now is how bad.
My estimation of likely outcomes of the next year, in order:
Moderate recession 50%
severe recession 25%
light recession 10%
massive meldown aka Great Depression 2 5%
This will stick with us for a long time even if the impact is not great.
Good thing: Gas/energy prices will moderate.
We've actually been there for quite sometime...
"Self-sustaining negative feedback loop." Basically you get Bad Thing A causing Bad Thing B causing Bad Thing C that causes more of Bad Thing A.
I hope you are correct when you say the bottom is near.
My gut has been telling me for about a year that some real blood-letting is on the horizon, and we have seen that. At this poing NO ONE knows how bad it will truly get.
I gave my own assessment, and I am not very confident in that itself. Too many unknowns. To paraphrase Rummy: "We don't even know what we don't know."
We'll see.
No, we haven't. It will get worse.
But enough doom and gloom. I have to get back to work.
political forum
When lending practices where at their worse prime could be had by people with scores around 620. This is above and beyond all the ARM bull . I'm talking about legit home lending. Want prime or near prime on a car. No problem 590 or higher.
Then prime became what it should be 680 and up. Then they moved it to 700. Then the economy went south and the criteria moved to 720 and consideration of other factors like debt to income, time on the job and so forth became major issues.
We are at 740 for prime lending right now. I don't care how many adverts I read stating that the average credit score is 690ish. Its more like 600ish. It'll be years before they find a way to lend conviently to the average joe again. This is the problem. Its the average joe who's FICO fluctuates from 580 to 700 constantly through out the year that drives everyday America. You stop lending to the second and third tier guys you won't make .
The system of lending and how your credit is evaluated needs to be reformed for the economy to function properly.
Example:
This is how the mess got started and it continues on this path only now they've eliminated lending to even good scores.
You can have ed up credit. Repo, bankruptcy and charge offs. If they're over a year old or better yet two years old your score is only moderately effected provided the debt collectors have stopped pursuing. You can have two credit cards with 1k limits and you've maintained a 0 balance on those cards. You can easily score over 680. You got bought and there were likely no problems getting you financed.
Now on the flip side
You can have perfect credit all ducks in a row. You have a credit card with a 1k limit. You have a balance of 900. Your score is likely below 600 because of debt to available amount. You might not get bought.
You tell me which of the two is really high risk.
Its ed and only the credit unions who play by their own rules have figured out that you got to look at the whole picture and not a score.
We're going to bail out people who have raised the criteria on lending. This will free up nothing. They're still basing everything on a score. A ed up calculated score.
It'll never happen but use the 700 bil to create a better financial platform not save an existing failure.
I am glad it did not pass. In my opinion this bail out was going to fast. It can wait a few more weeks. It reminds me of the car dealership. Buy now or else. They will figure it out.
I'm with B2B on this. Better pain now that generates real change.
its at -738.63 right now and dropping
Closed out at -777.68
The Dow lost 6.98% of its value.
Look for a total bloodbath overseas as soon as the Japanese and Chinese stock markets open, followed by a very likely nasty follow up tomorrow.
ow
Wait for it...
Wait for it...
BUY.
that does it!
I'm moving to Venezuela
Yep...the market kept trying to find a bottom and couldn't...it would stabilize for a few minutes, maybe even get a little bounce and then right back over the cliff again...it would still be dropping if the markets were open...you know a lot of people are gonna go home tonight, thing long and hard and call their broker first thing in the morning and pull the trigger...without something dramatic happening I could see a 1000+ drop tomorrow.
Pros ution might be the only stable business left but she'll have to discount her rates.
mmmm $50 hoes...
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