I don't even give a about the presidential race; that has always been a distant long shot.
I worry about the Senate. Need 41 seats.
Although I suspect both of them are pulling for McCain, I don't doubt this assessment for a minute. As bad as things look for McCain right now, he still has a good chance if he can run the table on the handful of swing states still in play, beating Obama even while losing the popular vote by several percentage points.
I'm on my way to NM or CO in the coming weeks. I don't know if I'll phone bank for him, but I definitely plan on canvassing as well for him here in SA. Its a lost cause, but its important to me.
You think James Carville is pulling for McCain? I'm not sure you know who James Carville is.
I know exactly who he is (and what his wife does), but I think his ties to the Clintons are still very strong.
i hope the fact he's black has little to nothing to do with that. otherwise, take a step back and do some thinking.Originally Posted by Findog
I still want to be a part of Obama's coalition. It means a lot to me to be able to say I cast a vote for him. I've donated money and I'm going to phonebank for him.
Have they contacted you about Drive for Change? I signed up for it and nobody will call me back.
I'm on my way to NM or CO in the coming weeks. I don't know if I'll phone bank for him, but I definitely plan on canvassing as well for him here in SA. Its a lost cause, but its important to me.
It has everything to do with the past 8 years. Breaking the color barrier is just icing on the cake.
Yeah I got 2 calls a couple of nights ago. One from a NM office and another from the SA office. Spoke with them last night and I need to attend one of the camps then I'm good to go. Just contact your local campaign HQ and go from there. Waiting for them to call you is a lost cause, IMO.
Another poll out today showing McCain behind in NC. I'll tell you this, if NC is going blue then McCain has absolutely no shot because there is no way he wins VA or PA in that scenario and I'm not really thinking he wins OH if NC is blue.
And the RCP average shows Obama up by 3 points in Florida.
pfffffttt... too bad he's not even a US citizen and isnt eligible to be in this race.
.. dont you read any of whottt's threads?
Holy ...more weighted than I thought:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blu...te-obama-trend
Cooking with AP: Polls Radically Change Party Mix to Fabricate an Obama Trend
By Tom Blumer (Bio | Archive)
October 2, 2008 - 06:26 ET
In the kitchens of the Associated Press, it's almost as if the wire service asked its chief cook -- er, pollster -- GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media, to do the following:
Whip up a tasty, representative poll after the Republican Convention.
Three weeks later, make the same dish, but this time adjust the mix of ingredients by radically oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans, thereby creating a false illusion of momentum in the campaign of Barack Obama, and of decline in John McCain's.
Hope people don't notice the changes in the recipe.
Of course we don't know if the differences between AP-CfK's Sept. 5-10 and Sept. 27-30 results were created deliberately, but the results sure look su ious (both polls are available at PDF links found at AP-GfK's home page).
The more recent poll shows Obama with a 7-point lead among likely voters, both with and without leaners; the earlier poll showed McCain with a 5-point lead with leaners, and 4 points without.
Almost all of this 12-point swing (11 points with leaners) is more than likely almost completely due to major differences between the two polls' samples:
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"Somehow," the sample make-up changed from 33-31 Democrat to 40-29 Democrat from the earlier to the latter poll -- a shift of nine points.
"Somehow," the Strong-Dem vs. Strong-GOP difference went from nothing to eight points.
"Somehow," the Strong-GOP vs. Moderate-GOP mix went from +3 to -3, a swing of six points.
Here's my best estimate of how the Sept. 27-30 poll would have turned out if AP-GfK had used a sample similar to the one it used Sept. 5-10:
After correcting for differences in the samples, almost all of Obama's double-digit pickup disappears, leaving McCain with four- and three-point leads without and with leaners, respectively. Even if one argues that the first poll showed a too-small gap between the two parties in the number of people sampled, subs uting the 5-point difference Gallup identified shortly after the GOP convention would still leave McCain with a slight lead.
Either AP isn't supervising its GfK cooks properly, or it's directing them to poison discussions of presidential race, while hoping that no one notices the rancid product it is clearly producing.
AP waitress -- er, reporter -- Liz Sidoti brought out the new poll's results for our consumption yesterday with this exultant intro:
Barack Obama has surged to a seven-point lead over John McCain one month before the presidential election, lifted by voters who think the Democrat is better suited to lead the nation through its sudden financial crisis, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that underscores the mounting concerns of some McCain backers.
Likely voters now back Obama 48-41 percent over McCain, a dramatic shift from an AP-GfK survey that gave the Republican a slight edge nearly three weeks ago, before Wall Street collapsed and sent ripples across worldwide markets.
As you can see above, her celebration is founded on fabrication; thus, her "explanations" are deep-fried in deception.
Just because AP, GfK, and Sidoti are serving us this rotten recipe doesn't mean that readers have to swallow it. So don't.
Cross-posted at BizzyBlog.com.
—Tom Blumer is president of a training and development company in Mason, Ohio, and is a contributing editor to NewsBusters
Manny...you and Findog scare the out of me. IF you had kids would you have them singing songs about Obama?
There's a clear reason why the media spins the polling data. When Obama loses to McCain, they can say "the republicans stole the election again!"
@ Obama spins the polling data.
Oh .
How the do you claim to be intelligent? Do you understand why your statement is so stupid, WC?
And Whottt, before I address YOUR foolish posts, find me the polls posted in this thread by the pollster you just discredited.
I couldn't find a link in the 538 thread, and this HAS to be an outlier, but HOLY ING :
Fox News
Texas - Pres.
Obama 45
McCain 46
Yeah that has to be an outlier. Either that or Fox News is in the tank for Obama!!!
I'm sure it is an outlier, but I will also say this. Obama has a ground game here in Texas. I think the idea is to work and get a grass roots network to help downticket items as well as get an established network for 08 and 12. I don't believe there is a serious McCain ground game here. When you realize how many people were registered for the Democratic primary there is some momentum to be had.
All in All, I expect McCain to carry this state and to carry it easily, but I think there is a small chance with a motivated ground game to turn it blue. Now, that chance is really small and even if it does go blue its likely only because Obama is winning in a landslide. I don't think Texas EVs are going to come into play as a tipping point. If Texas goes blue, its because Obama is well past 270 EVs.
TX turning blue? I'll believe it when I see it.
Do you have a link for that poll btw?
Carter was the last Democrat to carry the state. Texas is slowly turning purple, but I think there are just too many rural, socially conservative voters to turn the state blue this year.
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