How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Findog]

Do you have a link for that poll btw?

Somebody posted it in one of the 538 threads. I've been looking for confirmation. The last Rasmussen poll had McCain's lead here in the single digits.

[MannyIsGod]

Carter was the last Democrat to carry the state. Texas is slowly turning purple, but I think there are just too many rural, socially conservative voters to turn the state blue this year.

I'm really looking forward to the election results on this state. I want to see how it breaks down. Should be really interesting. I too don't think we have anything outside of a really small chance of seeing the race under 5 points this time around, but considering Bush carried it by 20 I'll be very happy to see it in the 7-8 point range which I think is extremely doable.

[whottt]

I'm sure it is an outlier, but I will also say this. Obama has a ground game here in Texas. I think the idea is to work and get a grass roots network to help downticket items as well as get an established network for 08 and 12. I don't believe there is a serious McCain ground game here. When you realize how many people were registered for the Democratic primary there is some momentum to be had.

All in All, I expect McCain to carry this state and to carry it easily, but I think there is a small chance with a motivated ground game to turn it blue. Now, that chance is really small and even if it does go blue its likely only because Obama is winning in a landslide. I don't think Texas EVs are going to come into play as a tipping point. If Texas goes blue, its because Obama is well past 270 EVs.

It means the polls are full of IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.

[Findog]

It means the polls are full of IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.

ALL the polls are wrong.

[td4mvp21]

Somebody posted it in one of the 538 threads. I've been looking for confirmation. The last Rasmussen poll had McCain's lead here in the single digits.

Look at my earlier post on this page. If you click on Texas, McCain leads by 9% points (poll was by Rasmussen).

[Findog]

Whottt defeats timvp!

[florige]

Man this is getting crazy. Hopefully Obama can close the deal on Tuesday with a good showing.

[MannyIsGod]

It means the polls are full of IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.

Of course of course.

You gonna ever comment on McCain pulling out of MI?

[whottt]

All the weighted ones are.


Just out of curiosity...anyone know the party breakdown of registrations in Texas?


Sin,


Whottt - A registered Democrat.

[florige]

It means the polls are full of IMO. Too heavily weighted in favor of the Democrats...as I've pointed out many times.

Check out that electoral.com map Whottt. I thought I heard people here saying that one was really accurate.

[MannyIsGod]

None of that is news though...
Thats what findog just said?

Look at my earlier post on this page. If you click on Texas, McCain leads by 9% points (poll was by Rasmussen).

[MannyIsGod]

All the weighted ones are.


Just out of curiosity...anyone know the party breakdown of registrations in Texas?


Sin,


Whottt - A registered Democrat.

Texas is going red unless of a landslide. Why not focus on your boy puling out of MI despite having super Palin on his side.

[MannyIsGod]

Check out that electoral.com map Whottt. I thought I heard people here saying that one was really accurate.

Whottt doesn't think a damn thing is accurate right now because every ing thing right now says that McCain is on the verge of losing in a landslide.

[td4mvp21]

None of that is news though...
Thats what findog just said?

Yeah I know he said he was looking for confirmation so I gave it to him That's what he wanted right??

[clambake]

Texas is going red unless of a landslide. Why not focus on your boy puling out of MI despite having super Palin on his side.

mccain has that state wrapped up.

[florige]

Whottt doesn't think a damn thing is accurate right now because every ing thing right now says that McCain is on the verge of losing in a landslide.

[MannyIsGod]

I think he's looking for more conformation of the new poll.

[Findog]

Yeah I know he said he was looking for confirmation so I gave it to him That's what he wanted right??

Confirmation on the foxnews poll that had McCain up by only 1 point here. I'd like to see the internals on that poll if it's true. Did they only survey Austin and Dallas?

[whottt]

Of course of course.

You gonna ever comment on McCain pulling out of MI?

McCain is as guilty of overrreacting to the polls as anyone.


Did you hear Palin is saying let her and husband go and campaign in MI?

[td4mvp21]

Confirmation on the foxnews poll that had McCain up by only 1 point here. I'd like to see the internals on that poll if it's true. Did they only survey Austin and Dallas?

My bad Sorry

[MannyIsGod]

McCain is as guilty of overrreacting to the polls as anyone.


Did you hear Palin is saying let her and husband go and campaign in MI?

Palin will save the day!!!

Are you still as confident McCain will win?

[JoeChalupa]

McCain is as guilty of overrreacting to the polls as anyone.


Did you hear Palin is saying let her and husband go and campaign in MI?

I'm not surprised since it is her campaign now. McCain is riding her skirt tails.

[whottt]

Sigh...if you guys look on the previous page you will see an article that clearly shows how they are adjusting the weights of Democrats based on the economy news.


They shifted it 8 points up in favor of the Democrats and 2 points down against the Republicans...just because they think that news favors the Democrats.... it's an insult to call that weighting...I don't know what the you call it. But I know Gallup does it, I know the AP does it...

[JoeChalupa]

I don't believe all the polls either. IT is a real close race and as I've always said, Obama is the underdog. Some may say Obama can't win but McCain can lose.

[whottt]

Palin will save the day!!!

Are you still as confident McCain will win?

Yeah...I still am.

And you know the polls could be a factor...young voters have a piss poor turnout in elections usually and if they think it's in the bag they may not show up on election day to the degree Obama is expecting.


Conversely, if the McCain supporters think an Obama win is a done deal, they might not show up.


I don't know how the polls are going to impact this race...sometimes I read them and they piss me off and I feel defeated, other times I feel determined...


But I'll be honest...to anyone following closely the huge up by McCain was signing off on that Senate Bill. But since Obama ducked it entirely he didn't get out of the negative with me...to be fair, there's pretty much nothing that could get him out of the negative with me right now...unless I find out Palin was behind 9/11..