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Obama polls high...RCP poll averages showed him beating Hillary by a 12 pt margin, the actual margin was under 2pts.
ITS ONE ING POLL WHOTTT. ONE ing pollster. Not all of them. Furthermore its one ing pollster no one has even brought up. Your argment is so ing stupid. I don't understand how you're going to disregard EVERY SINGLE survey conducted based on a completely unrelated pollster. Its bull . Its just flat out bull .
You are just looking for any reason to disregard a poll you can find. It doesn't matter how little bearing it has on other polls, if you can someone make it fit your theory then its going in. You're working with an agenda and looking for information to fit that agenda which is ing ironic because thats exactly what you're claiming the pollsters are doing.
You, whottt, are so biased and so full of right now its not even funny. But seriously, find ONE place where that pollster is referenced in this thread.
Obama polls high...RCP poll averages showed him beating Hillary by a 12 pt margin, the actual margin was under 2pts.
Last I checked Obama voted just the same way McCain did so I'm not sure how he ducked it. He just didn't make a stupid campaign stunt that gave him ownership of the utter failure of the bill.
And yeah, we all know that nothing is going to change your Palin loving mind and we've all seen that for quite a while.
McCain is hurting her....she's the one that keeps putting them back in this.
It's surprising, McCain has showed he can be inspiring at least a little in his RNC speech...but those sorts of appearances are few and far between.
The rest of the time he comes off as trying to be PC....
Ok, if thats the case find me the places where this happend. Those polls are located on the RCP site and the results are there as well.
Go find the evidence to back what you are saying Whottt.
Saying it doesn't make it true. I promise you if I go look I can find you far more instances where Obama OUT performed the polls. In other words he was shown to be winning by less than what he actually won by. In fact, I will.
The trend is clear, multiple sources are saying the same thing. I normally refer to realclear politics
RCP Map
3 weeks ago, McCain had an edge or was very close in several states that are now slowly turning blue. He had a clear lead in Ohio, Florida, NC, Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and was breathing down Obama's neck in PA, Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico and New Hampshire.
Click on each swing state on the left navigation and check the trends. Each of these states has swung towards Obama in the last 2 weeks, especially since the economic crisis began. I expect McCain will prevail in Nevada, Missouri, Florida and NC, but I wouldn't be surprised if Obama takes the rest.
"Trust me, I know" (tm)
I concur. McCain has lost what ever momentum he ever had and Sarah is trying her best although more men find her favorable than women. I was watching the online graph last night and men ranked her responses much higher than women did.
She's fooling more men than women
Oh get serious...he was completely non-commital and the only reason he voted on it was because McCain did.
Are you really so naive as to the way Obama works Manny? He's got a pretty extensive record.
I can admit I am heavily biased and I always have been against Obama, that said I was stilling to vote for him on an issue that was important to me..one issue. The most important one.
And yeah, we all know that nothing is going to change your Palin loving mind and we've all seen that for quite a while.
Now...when you can admit the media is completely in the tank for Obama...I'll feel like you are in a position to judge me fairly.
But I can also be objective in analyzing the situation..to not be able to be objective hurts me and my own judgement...and no one else.
I feel I am being objective with points on the weights...I feel I am being totally objective and I feel I have made valid points as to why those weights are off and why this election is one of the most unusual in history...so weight methods that have traditionally been pretty accurate are not going to be as accurate.
You know it's impossible to do a truly scientific sample poll based on 1000 or so voters. Most of the time it works...but it's not flawless.
The ratings, the contributions, the activism, the people showing up for appearances...these aren't factored into the polls.
What is factored is people that are registered Democrat...a piss poor indication of voting in Presidential elections...and economic news that they assume completely favors the Democrats.
I posted it already in this thread. It was the link I posted right after I said never go with the odds on a stacked deck.
Tell me what state Whottt. I'll go find it myself. Either that or dig it up.
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost...4&postcount=11
http://spurstalk.com/forums/showpost...48&postcount=8
So whottt likes referring to polls only when McCain leads. When Obama leads, the democratic media bias makes the polls untrustworthy.
Dumbass.
The whole crux of Whottt's argument is that polls are not accurate. He keeps trying to use this to frame these poll results as meaningless and inaccurate therefor not indicative of the actual situation right now.
Unfortunately for Whottt, here is the truth of the matter:
Political public polling is not only accurate, its INCREDIBLY accurate
Whottt loves to drop anecdotes in here like "They showed Kerry up in 04 and he lost) and he loves to provide discounting of individual polls and act as though they refer to every poll ever conducted. He likes to say things like Obama underperformed in the primaries based on polls but he doesn't provide any info other than that. They're all bull statements.
The simple fact is that if these polls are so bad or of their internals were so off why wouldn't he just go through and provide the evidence to disqualify each individual pollster using the info they provide?
Why can't whottt do that?
geez, for a guy that makes an issue when other people bold their posts.
Sure...here's California:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...imary-259.html
Obama had a RCP avg lead of 1.2 Hillary won it by 9 something points. LOL one poll showed him up by 13 points in California.
Here's NH:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...imary-194.html
Obama had a RCP avg lead of 8.3 and Clinton won by 2.6.
There were others too...
That national polls showed him up by 12 points, and he won by less than 2.
Furthermore...no Democrat that has had less than a...I think it's 10, might be as high as 15 point lead in polling, has ever won the Presidency. So Democrats themselves poll high...
Guess what, that's because there's always more registered Democrats than there are Republicans.
I am telling you a lot of Repuplicans voted in these primaries.
Rush Limbaugh was encourging them to go register as Democrats and vote for Obama. He called it the stop Hillary express. On top of that...lots of women registered Democrat to vote for Hillary.
PS: Survey USA can be hired by any one to conduct these polls and ask questions in a way requested by whoever hires them. They're good...but they can have questions geared to get a certain response. Plus...they're recordings...a lot of people will instantly hang up on a recording. Especially old people.
Neither of these are a +/- of 12 like you said. So I'm still waiting for that one.
In addition What did the SUSA Poll say in California? Did all the polls say the same thing or were there different results? What does that tell you? How can you take what that teaches you and compare it to what is going on in the polls today? Are all the polls today saying the same thing?
Rush's "Operation Chaos" called on them to vote for Clinton, not Obama.
At this point, I'm just kind of certain Whottt's messing with Manny's head.
Also, look at the RCP breakdown
Obama - 44.0
Clinton - 42.8
Does that add up to 100? Hmmm, no.
Actual performance
O-42.3
C-51.9
It shows you the polls were accurate, but that the UNDECIDEDS broke for Clinton heavily.
I'd believe you if Whottt didn't have a track record for refusing to acknowledge the obvious. This isn't the first Whottt trainwreck on this forum.
Love makes you do crazy things, and whottt's got it bad.
By the way Manny...there is name for what happens in the polling...they call it the Bradley effect, and it's when white people don't want to be called racist so they say they're going to vote for a black candidate.
That's why playing the race card is a bad move. All it gets is skewed results.
It could turn out in Obama's favor, as you say he's got the ground game...
I think I read somewhere where there are now 16 million registered voters in Pennsylvania and there's only supposedly 13 million people in the state
If he and the Democrats are going to de-fraud the elections then all the red state Republicans who voted for OBama and white people saying they are going to vote for Obama could have slit their own throat.
But beyond all this...McCain fails to connect with people. I voted for Hillary in the primaries and when I was leaning towards Obama it was under the assumption he was going to put Hillary on the ticket...I got pissed when he put Biden the ing plaigerizing socialist on it....
But anyway...I figured if Hillary didn't win I would probably vote for McCain, but when that time came...I couldnt' get excited about McCain and that's when I was saying ok...Obama's not looking so bad now, especially on the Iraq War after he changed his stance.
That has changed...Palin changed that dynamic. I can't speak for anyone, but I genuinely like her more than I have any candidate since Clinton. And I trust her...and I think she is by far the most competent and honest politician in this election. That's why I am voting for McCain.
And while the polls may not reflect my opinion, the ratings, the turnout at appearances, the contributions, and the rise in activism say I'm not alone.
That was the National Poll Average from the primaries and I already posted in Manny.
Explanations for whottt's behavior:
1. He's messing with everyone. If so, a masterful and convincing act - props
2. He's lost it. Some personal tragedy perhaps? But he's lost all touch with rationality
3. He's just very dumb outside of basketball, and has an affinity for dumbasses in general. That would explain why he'd want a re like Palin anywhere close to the White House, and why he roots for Bush.
Hmm, maybe I should make a poll outta this
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