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Yeah, I'm not sure how much political will there is going to be in DC for a slash on capital gains. If that happens be prepared to see the Debt baloon like no other.
The End is near.
Recession, but we'll be okay in a year or so.
Just a bump in the road
This is all an illusion created by the fatcats.
Describe the econony over the next 12 months? I think we're going to see a major contraction and unemployment get close to 10%. Government hiring will prevent the unemployment number from going higher. Oil will continue to slide and maybe hit $60 a barrell. Consumer spending is going to collapse. We will continue to see a steady devaluation of our dollar.
The only way to turn this tide is to cut the capital gains to 0% for 24 months. Then accelerate depreciation for capital expenditures. Slash the fed funds rate to 1/2% and reins ute the FHA 235 program.
Yeah, I'm not sure how much political will there is going to be in DC for a slash on capital gains. If that happens be prepared to see the Debt baloon like no other.
let me rephrase that. zero capital gains tax on assets purchased within the next 12 to 24 months. hence, when people decide to sell those assets no capital gains tax would be owed. this would encourage investment and maintain asset values and current government tax revenues.
What really sucks is that the government did such a poor job explaining things that many people figured the bailout had failed based upon the market since its passage. What they haven't factored in is that without the bailout we surely would have had at least one day where they had to freeze trading if not more than one.
The American people really do need to have it explained to them that this is not a bump in the road but a major financial crisis that is going to have huge repercussions.
I'm just overly upset at the complete lack of leadership shown by the government right now. I know that if I have such a hard time keeping up with just what is going on that the average American doesn't have a ing clue.
To be honest with you, I've lived in countries with much, much worse economic crisis than this one, and honestly believe this is a bump on the road.
those countries probably did not have far to fall. The US on the other hand....
We have the luxury of taking other countries with us though.
Some of this is also due to the delay in the bailout. The Fed is having to deal with Commericial paper which just became a problem over the past 3 weeks. I talked about it in my horrendous economic news thread.
Obama will be a disaster, but I don't think the republicans would be that much better. Our only hope is for the republicans to regroup and come back as fiscal conservatives.
Europe, China, yes. But certain third world countries won't see much difference.
Dollar has been gaining recently and continues to gain -- no matter what is happening in the stock market. As bad as Americans think they have it here, most of the rest of the world has it worse. Bailouts are happening not just in the US.
We'll see what happens but I can imagine a scenario where the economy suffers but the dollar gains to its highest levels in years against foreign currencies. And I'd easily take the under in regards to unemployment hitting 10%.
You've known this was coming though Pete. I mean the general at ude torward finance in this country is so far from reality from the level of each person to the level of the government. We just don't handle it responsibly and now thats having some serious repurcussions. My worst fear is that this gets bad and the general public never understands WHY and we go back to doing the exact same things. I mean sure they'll understand a bit more about bad home loans, but what about the rest of the bad credit floating around?
I don't know, I could see 10% pretty attainable. Consumer spending is going to really ing suck during this holiday season and we all know how badly that is going to hurt the economy. The worst part of all this bad economic news and the overall sentiment in the country right now is that even though people stand to save a good deal of money in the coming months due to lower oil costs they're also likely to stash a lot of that away and not spend it.
The bad news for Obama is that I can easily see a scenario where he doesn't ins ute any of his promises due to the economy and then the Republicans go on a witch hunt and oust him in 2012. But hopefully he can work some magic, get the US economy back on track and then be a near unanimous choice in 2012.
Then again, for the second scenario to play out, he'd have to rely on most of his policies not becoming reality . . ..
China and some of Europe have turned their noses at us for awhile now.
We're America and you es need us
I have faith in Obama that he would surround himself with intelligent people and he'd listen to their advice. That being said, bad economies are just about the surest way to ensure a change in power so we'll see how long it lasts. I doubt any economic downturn would last for the entire duration of his term, though.
It will be bad for about 2 years and right itself by the fourth.
I see a contraction for 2009 and probably for 2010 with a return to growth by about 2011.
Obama has surrounded himself with intelligent people so far, and shows no sign of ins uting Bush-style ideological purity tests over competence.
We are seeing the dollar appreiciate due to a short squeeze and a lot of people unwinding positions that bet against the dollar. I would have to find the news article that I read that in though.
10% is quite likely, in my opinion.
We have seen SHARP drops in EVERY economic indicator, and that is just the start of it. I expect that when we get final numbers from September and October, things will be looking bleak, just in time to totally f*** with Christmas sales, making things immeasurably worse.
If this had happened in, say, March, we wouldn't have seen as much of a problem.
Yeah, I think the fact that our economy is so dependent on Q4 sales really makes the timing of this all the more worse.
The US consumer will be "de-leveraging" just like banks and companies, by paying off chunks of debt. I know I will be, but I would have done that anyways.
I would guess that if you save up yer cash for January 2009, you will see retailers putting on one of a sale.
short-term trading trends in currencies does not make long-term.
report today that consumer credit has shrunk for the first time since 1989?
Here is an interesting article from 2004 on a goldbug website:
http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2004/0528.html
I am seriously beginning to see the need to examine a lot of things concerning our financial system. It is useful in situations like this to examine one's underlying assumptions, and I will be taking a look this weekend at some of this like Mises and the Austrian school of economics.
Ron Paul strikes again? Erg.
Facing a crisis the Fed do what central banks always do: print more money. Cons utional restrictions and regulations are always ignored or over-ruled when a crisis unfolds. Whether the Fed could succeed in averting a deflationary collapse with a hyper-inflation is not certain. But who would question that unconventional measures would be tried?
Dow hits 7,500.
8% - 9% unemployment.
4 - 6 Qs of recession (at a minimum).
Vbookie anyone?
I think with the current "bail Out" legislation, our economy will slide. We may go into depression unless the bad regulations that caused this are changed.
Oil prices dropping? Get a grip. I may be wrong here, but my inerpretation of what I heard is that prices paid on oil futures have dropped. Have oil prices really dropped, or are they still around $100? I think speculators have removd themselves from the oil market and played securities or futures someplace else. I don't think we will see substantial drops in oil prices unless the dollar regains value on the world market.
This was a big mistake to bail out indistries that should fail. Now we have weeds growing in our garden instead of weeding them out. The solution to keep the lending industry solvent was simple. Let lending ins utes that did things right borrow their needed capitol directly from the Federal Reserve.
So many things will help the economy and so many things will hurt. It is obvious to me that neither presidential candidate understands economics well. Still, I believe we will be better off with McCain as president rather than the rubber-stamping Obama will do with congressional spending. Much of our future depends on the presidency.
Remember I claimed the market drops are because of voting for the Bail out rather than not? Just look at today's drop and tell me I'm, wrong. Another 508 point drop on the Dow. Other US markets down too.
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