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  1. #151
    Ruffy RuffnReadyOzStyle's Avatar
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    this

    the bank i put my deposit in is getting bought for $2.1billion, stupid parent company in england HBOS is being taken over...i wonder wtf happens to my deposit account...
    Are you that stupid? Oh, sorry, forgot who I was talking to...

    Nothing will happen to your deposit. Commonwealth are buying BankWest because it's a good investment. The will either keep the brand, or they'll merge the deposits into the C'wealth brand and you'll become a C'wealth customer. You won't lose a cent.

    Now if HBOS went under still owning BankWest you'd be in trouble. You should be welcoming this takeover!

  2. #152
    Ruffy RuffnReadyOzStyle's Avatar
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    worse case scenario. if a currency were to fail, how would that effect the markets?
    As I understand it, all the world's oil contracts, and much of the world's other resource contracts, are written in US dollars, and the US still has a massive, productive economy (even though it is riddled with bad debt). These factors make it unlikely that the US$ will go peso...

    I'm pissed I didn't buy some USDs when it was 1:1 with the AUD! It's now back to 1:0.7...

  3. #153
    Who is this guy, again? travis2's Avatar
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    The Fed just lowered interest rates to 1.5%.

    (Radio news story)

  4. #154
    I love J.T. smeagol's Avatar
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    The Fed just lowered interest rates to 1.5%.

    (Radio news story)
    In a coordinated effort with the ECB and the Bank of England, which also lowered their rates by 50 bps.

    CC, this is what you wnated to see. The FED's last bullet. Let's see how market reacts. Europe has turned around and the Dow futures went from negative 1.5% to positive 0.5%.

    My feeling is that there will be a temporary boost in the markets but the downward trend will continue. The system has to drain itself, and this will take time.

    I agree with DOW 8,000 prediction. I would venture to say it might go even lower.

  5. #155
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    I don't think 1/2% is gonna be enough to turn the tide. Hand on to your seats, it's gonna be a bumpy ride today.

  6. #156
    I love J.T. smeagol's Avatar
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    The "rally" was even shorter than what i thought . . . It never even made it to the opening bell.

    Markets are set to take another nosedive. DOW futures is 250 pts lower . . .

  7. #157
    I love J.T. smeagol's Avatar
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    I don't think 1/2% is gonna be enough to turn the tide. Hand on to your seats, it's gonna be a bumpy ride today.
    If 50 bps is not enough than nothing is. We are at 1.5%. Gonig to 0.75% will not make a difference. At this rate, the Feds Fund Rate will become negative (real rates already are).

  8. #158
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    The drop today is gonna make the last two days look tame. I wouldn't be surprised if the circuit breaker gets kicked today...(10% drop)

  9. #159
    needs a margarita
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    I don't think 1/2% is gonna be enough to turn the tide. Hand on to your seats, it's gonna be a bumpy ride today.
    It will mean my husband's student loans will go down a little! Maybe a dollar?

  10. #160
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    And it begins. 100 points straight down at the opening bell.

  11. #161
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    What a crazy chart. dropped 250 and bounced right back. The lines are so close together it looks like one line.

  12. #162
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Damn. It really really tried to rally. Bounced all the way up to 2600+ (almost a 400 point swing) then went off the cliff again. Now down about 50 from yesterdays close. All that in less than an hour. CRAZY !

  13. #163
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I think you are missing the fact that this is not a localized and classic cycle slump in the US stock market. This is a potential collapse of the global credit markets and an almost assured global recession or even depression. If it reaches that point there is not going to be a quick recovery and a narrow window of opportunity to "catch the bottom". The bottom (when it's finally reached) will be wide and deep if the upcoming interest rate cuts don't stop the bleeding it will get ugly fast. Dollar cost averaging is for "normal" stock market cycles and this is not the case. I'm just saying that if stocks start going back downhill after the Fed drops interest rates to 3/4% or 1% its time to get the out and sit on the sidelines in t-Bills till the smoke clears.
    Hmmm.

    The bottom will be wide and deep, but I think the advice still holds.

    Continued, steady investments during this crisis will yield massively 10 years down the road.

    Even the Great Depression didn't last quite that long.

    If your retirement time window is longer than 10 years, then selling off is not worth it.

    Any money you invest in stocks in the next two years will buy a lot more shares than they will in 5 years.

    Yes, you will take some hits as the market continues to slide, but the losses are short term, and you will be very well positioned when the market goes up as it always does.

  14. #164
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Those ABOUT to retire should have been in less aggressive investments. That's what you do when you get close to retiring. Although, I suppose to lure of making 8% on 1.5 million without having to lift a finger in one little year is pretty damn attractive. After 30+ years of compounded interest you should get to enjoy the best part so that does suck for many out there.

    People lose hundreds of thousands of dollars over the span of 401k, IRAs. They also make millions including the negative return years.

    I'm not freaking out because I have been told reality since I was a little boy.

    If this is truly the collapse of our beloved market....damn I always had ty timing.
    Yup.

    If you are due to be retiring in less than 10 years, you should have most of your assets in bonds anyways.

    I don't see it as a collapse. The government will step in, and there will be more oversight and transparency in the future, and business will bounce back.

    The government will step back eventually and loosen up its control.

    Anything more, and I will be getting into politics, and this is not the place for that.

  15. #165
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If 50 bps is not enough than nothing is. We are at 1.5%. Gonig to 0.75% will not make a difference. At this rate, the Feds Fund Rate will become negative (real rates already are).
    Yup. The problem with that particular lever is that you can only drop it to 0% and then your ability to use it is gone.

    I see it getting to a self-imposed floor of 1%, possibily as low as 0.5%

    I can't envision an American Fed dropping it below that.

    The global rate change will help staunch the fear though, and that probably is worth more than most might think.

  16. #166
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    It's actually better this morning than I expected..."only" down 176 in the first two hours.

  17. #167
    I love J.T. smeagol's Avatar
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    Even the Great Depression didn't last quite that long.
    It took almost 30 years for the Dow to recover to pre 1929 levels. I believe it finally did in 1956.

    The Great Depression was no ing joke.

  18. #168
    Who is this guy, again? travis2's Avatar
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    It took almost 30 years for the Dow to recover to pre 1929 levels. I believe it finally did in 1956.

    The Great Depression was no ing joke.
    No, it happened earlier than that. Early '50s, it looks like. And you are obviously counting from the 1929 peak right before the crash.

    Further, the low point in the Dow was not the '29 crash. The crash took the Dow down to around 200...it rebounded to nearly 300 in 1930...THEN the bottom fell out over the next 2 years...ending up at 41 and change in 1932.

  19. #169
    I love J.T. smeagol's Avatar
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    No, it happened earlier than that. Early '50s, it looks like. And you are obviously counting from the 1929 peak right before the crash.
    The peak was 380 pts in Aug 1929. I got there again Nov 1954.

    But even if you consider an average of 185 pts for the period 1925 - 1929, it took the DOW another 8 years (1937) to get to those levels (187.10 pts), only to gop into another bear market which bottomed in 1942 and reached the 190 level again 1946.

    After the Great Depression, there are two long bull markets: 1942 - 1966, and 1982 - 2007. You can obviously find some bearish years withing those two long periods of time, but all in all, the direction was always going up.


    Further, the low point in the Dow was not the '29 crash. The crash took the Dow down to around 200...it rebounded to nearly 300 in 1930...THEN the bottom fell out over the next 2 years...ending up at 41 and change in 1932.
    90% drop. Scary!

  20. #170
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    It's easy to look at it day to day and think "oh it will bounce back up" but if you look at it in the perspective of year to date and see the market implosion of the last few weeks it's a lot more ominous. Heres a good chart...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%...urce=undefined

  21. #171
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Yeah, right. A large chunk of the western world has been living far beyond its means for a decade, what with a large proportion of the population buying loads of crap they can't afford ON CREDIT, and it had to come home to roost some time. What exactly is " ing stupid" about pointing that out? This credit crunch isn't just about the sub-prime mortgage lending, which was basically a big scam on the poor and stupid, it's about entire economies living beyond their ability to pay for what is consumed. Please enlighten my stupidity, oh wise one.

    Any fool could see that the US, and the West in general, was in for a gut-check, it was simply a matter of when it was going to happen. I've had money in the bank for the last 3 years because I could see this coming, I just didn't know when it was going to happen. Now that stock markets are flushing out all the bad debt, the system should return to some kind of sanity - how long that will take is the question. Sure, the crunch is hurting people, but you can't live on credit for ever, and a lot of people have put themselves in credit holes so they can live lifestyles they could never really afford. It's harsh, but I have no sympathy for those people because they did it to themselves.
    Stock Markets flushing out bad debt = World running out of food and energy? And lets not even talk about Water, the most abundant resource in our world.

  22. #172
    Ain't over 'till its over MaNuMaNiAc's Avatar
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    am I reading correctly? DOW up %1.11 right now? that's a of a lot better than expected, right?

  23. #173
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    am I reading correctly? DOW up %1.11 right now? that's a of a lot better than expected, right?
    Heh, given the volatility of the last few months, I wouldn't put much emphasis on any given day's worth of movement.

    It is ok, but bounces like this follow huge point losses. I kinda expected it to go up today.

    Tomorrow on the other hand... ?????

    Wheeeeeeee!!

  24. #174
    Ain't over 'till its over MaNuMaNiAc's Avatar
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    Heh, given the volatility of the last few months, I wouldn't put much emphasis on any given day's worth of movement.

    It is ok, but bounces like this follow huge point losses. I kinda expected it to go up today.

    Tomorrow on the other hand... ?????

    Wheeeeeeee!!
    yeah, buying stock right now is like playing Russian roulette...

  25. #175
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    am I reading correctly? DOW up %1.11 right now? that's a of a lot better than expected, right?
    There are huge minute to minute fluctuations today. Still 20+ minutes to close and anything can happen...and up 1% wasn't exactly what they were hoping for with a 50 basic point interest slash. They are about to the point that the only thing they can do to distract/motivate traders is to hire strippers.

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