How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

**Findog** · 10-10-2008

Obama polls anywhere between 48-52% in national tracking polls, McCain pulls anywhere between 40-45% of the vote.

Best-case scenario, Obama is up 52-40, with 8% of the electorate undecided. If that's the true state of the race, this election is definitely over. The undecided votes that are left can't save McCain.

Worst-case scenario, Obama is up 48-45, with 7% of the electorate undecided. That means McCain can still win this thing if he can get the undecideds to break for him en masse. He should forget about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota and just defend the Bush 2004 states.

But let's split the difference between the two ends of the spectrum and say Obama is at 50% to McCain's 43%, with 7% of the electorate undecided. In that case, he is probably out of luck. Obama shored up his position after the second debate and polling indicates a majority of undecided voters are leaning Obama now.

Bottom line: McCain is toast, unless the true state of the race is 48-45 Obama and he can somehow change the momentum from his opponent.

I know that national polling does not necessarily correlate to state polling and the electoral college, but McCain still still win the EC if Obama's national lead is at 3 points or less. Anything over that, and the state polls don't matter.

**boutons_** · 10-10-2008

The New York Times has shifted the ratings of three states on its Electoral Map, reflecting the difficult stretch that Senator John McCain, the Arizona Republican, is going through in his fight with Senator Barack Obama, the Illinois Democrat, for the presidency.

New Hampshire, which The Times had rated as a toss-up, is now shifted as leaning to Mr. Obama, based on polling and interviews with Republican and Democratic officials. The Granite State was good to Mr. McCain in the Republican primaries of 2000 and 2008, and considering that history – and the large number of independents in the state – it remains high on the list of Democratic states that Mr. McCain had been seeking to capture this November.

North Carolina, a state that is normally is about as red as they get, is being moved into the toss-up column. Mr. Obama has poured tons of money into the state, and is spending a lot of time there, and Republicans are growing increasingly anxious that he might take it away from them.

Oregon, which had been leaning toward Mr. Obama, has now gone from light to solid blue: The good residents of the state of Oregon, who had their share of presidential attention in 2004, will probably not get to see much (if any) of the candidates or their advertisements over the next month.

**PixelPusher** · 10-10-2008

Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

More proof that the "polls are all over the place" logic is severely flawed.

These are just the national trackers, but since well before October started they're all consistently putting Obama at over 48% aside from one occurrence.

CBS News, Democracy Corps. and Ipsos/McClatchy are within the margin for error, and therefore each receive the JCP Award.

**boutons_** · 10-10-2008

"Barack Obama now leads John McCain by double digits, 52 percent to 41 percent among registered voters—a marked shift from the last NEWSWEEK poll, conducted one month ago, when the two candidates were tied at 46 percent."

http://www.newsweek.com/id/163339

Maybe this is one of the sources of McNasty's new found civility.

He's getting his old, senile, confused ass stomped with an Ayers ugly stick.

New Repug attack line: ACORN invented mortgage-backed securities and default credit swaps.

**MannyIsGod** · 10-10-2008

Just another day of polling favorable to Obama.

**boutons_** · 10-10-2008

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/1..._n_133775.html

Mabye McWanderer is looking for his 270!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBtmaq0J2kU

**Cry Havoc** · 10-10-2008

I honestly don't see Obama carrying N.C. I think a lot of reds turn out on the final days to push that state to McCain. Not comfortably, but enough that he'll win it.

It doesn't matter right now, because McCain cannot win this election without taking Ohio AND Pennsylvania, and that's not going to happen.

**Findog** · 10-10-2008

Originally Posted by Cry Havoc

I honestly don't see Obama carrying N.C. I think a lot of reds turn out on the final days to push that state to McCain. Not comfortably, but enough that he'll win it.

It doesn't matter right now, because McCain cannot win this election without taking Ohio AND Pennsylvania, and that's not going to happen.

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.

**MannyIsGod** · 10-10-2008

Originally Posted by Findog

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.

Exactly, if Obama wins NC he's winning in a landslide.

**whottt** · 10-10-2008

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html

Code:

West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses: 

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

West Virginia 
  McCain Obama Other Undecided 
 
Likely voters  42%  50%  3% 5% 
 
Democrats (55%) 20% 76% 2% 2% 
Republicans (35%) 79% 10% 2% 9% 
Independents (10%) 38% 50% 7% 5% 
 
Men (48%) 49% 46% 3% 2% 
Women (52%) 36% 54% 3% 7% 
 
18 to 49 (53%) 40% 51% 4% 5% 
50 and older (47%) 45% 50% 1% 4% 
 
Sep 14-16 49% 45% - 7%

55% Democrats
35% Republicans

And he's still only getting 50% of the vote...that's hilarious.

If every African American and Hispanic of voting age or not, in the entire state registered to vote, and voted for Obama, that'd be about 45k voters in a state that was decided by over 100 thousand votes in favor of Bush in 2004.

These polls are totally ed.

**ElNono** · 10-11-2008

Originally Posted by whottt

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html

Code:

West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses: 

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

West Virginia 
  McCain Obama Other Undecided 
 
Likely voters  42%  50%  3% 5% 
 
Democrats (55%) 20% 76% 2% 2% 
Republicans (35%) 79% 10% 2% 9% 
Independents (10%) 38% 50% 7% 5% 
 
Men (48%) 49% 46% 3% 2% 
Women (52%) 36% 54% 3% 7% 
 
18 to 49 (53%) 40% 51% 4% 5% 
50 and older (47%) 45% 50% 1% 4% 
 
Sep 14-16 49% 45% - 7%

55% Democrats
35% Republicans

And he's still only getting 50% of the vote...that's hilarious.

If every African American and Hispanic of voting age or not, in the entire state registered to vote, and voted for Obama, that'd be about 45k voters in a state that was decided by over 100 thousand votes in favor of Bush in 2004.

These polls are totally ed.

From the same page:
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/NH08.html

Code:

New Hampshire
 	 	 	McCain	Obama	Other	Undecided
Likely voters	 	43%	52%	1%	4%
Democrats (31%)	 	6%	88%	-	6%
Republicans (32%)	95%	2%	-	3%
Independents (37%)	29%	65%	2%	4%
Men (50%)	 	 52%	43%	-	5%
Women (50%)	 	34%	61%	1%	4%
18 to 49 (59%)	 	41%	53%	1%	5%
50 and older (41%)	46%	51%	-	3%
Sep 13-15	 	 48%	45%	1%	6%
Aug 18-20	 	 45%	46%	 	9%
Jul 19-21	 	 45%	47%	 	8%
Jun 13-17	 	 39%	51%	 	10%

Yeah, these polls are totally ed.

**MannyIsGod** · 10-11-2008

Originally Posted by whottt

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2008/WV08.html

Code:

West Virginia

Interview dates: October 4-8, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses: 

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

West Virginia 
  McCain Obama Other Undecided 
 
Likely voters  42%  50%  3% 5% 
 
Democrats (55%) 20% 76% 2% 2% 
Republicans (35%) 79% 10% 2% 9% 
Independents (10%) 38% 50% 7% 5% 
 
Men (48%) 49% 46% 3% 2% 
Women (52%) 36% 54% 3% 7% 
 
18 to 49 (53%) 40% 51% 4% 5% 
50 and older (47%) 45% 50% 1% 4% 
 
Sep 14-16 49% 45% - 7%

55% Democrats
35% Republicans

And he's still only getting 50% of the vote...that's hilarious.

If every African American and Hispanic of voting age or not, in the entire state registered to vote, and voted for Obama, that'd be about 45k voters in a state that was decided by over 100 thousand votes in favor of Bush in 2004.

These polls are totally ed.

Cherry pick away. Is anyone really thinking Obama is going to carry West Virginia? You find one poll where you can point out poor internals and use that to write them all off. Thats fine, these polls are all totally ed.

Actually I'd be fine with writing off each and every ARG poll out there because they've been extremely volatile.

**MannyIsGod** · 10-11-2008

A different kind of poll this time. NJ polled political insiders to see who they thought would win. 80% of the GOP they polled thinks Obama is going to win.

Can you say deflated base?

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmag..._20080418_6542

Some of their comments on this:

7. "Wall Street's collapse probably sealed the deal for Obama."
7. "McCain-Palin have not changed the trend line in three debates, which means the only place to go is more negative. And that won't work in the midst of the financial crisis. They're getting critically outspent on TV. And Obama has a much more proficient ground game. Help!"
7. "McCain ran a truly awful campaign and hurt his brand big-time."
7. "Very little changed with the debate. And there is likely nothing that will change the political environment for McCain to close the gap."
7. "You can never entirely count McCain out, but both the atmospherics and the fundamentals are now pointing toward an Obama rout."
7. "It feels like 1996."
8. "Barring a terrorist incident or other foreign-policy crisis that takes the focus off the economy, Obama can't lose."
8. "But, frankly, with anybody but McCain it would be '10.' "
8. "As long as economic news dominates, McCain appears to have no way of breaking through."
8. "O.J. [Simpson] has a better chance of getting community service than McCain has of winning this thing."
9. "There is just no juice in the Republican effort--and no wonder: We failed time and again to provide appropriate leadership for our country and the world. We don't deserve another chance--at least for a while. And the American people agree."
10. "I love my crazy uncle. I don't like anybody else's."

**Bartleby** · 10-11-2008

Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Is anyone really thinking Obama is going to carry West Virginia?

Probably not, but there is a much better chance of WV going blue than NY going red.

There was an article recently in the New Yorker about about the Appalachian voters (particularly the Scots-Irish population) in rural Virginia which suggests that a lot of the people in that region are not the sort of hardliner Republicans many people make them out to be.

Plus, this poll has Obama ahead outside the margin of error:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...-virginia.html

**MannyIsGod** · 10-12-2008

Where the Presidential race stands. By the standards of Presidential elections since 1992, Barack Obama is far ahead. For most of this season he has been running about 50 EV ahead of where John Kerry ran at the same point in 2004, which ended in a near-tie. Currently the gap is even larger - it’s nearing Clinton v. Dole proportions. In the face of a down economy and abysmal approval ratings for the Bush Administration, a lead of this size by a Democrat is essentially insurmountable.
This is why John McCain’s tactics have become increasingly savage - it’s his last stand. It is why Obama has started to buy 30-minute blocks of time - he is shooting for a massive blowout. Conservative commentators are jumping ship, writing obituaries for the Republican Party or even coming out for Obama. The writing is on the wall. Every knowledgeable insider on either side knows it.
At a time like this, one impulse is to worry or grasp for straws, depending on who you are rooting for. You might like to speculate on the Bradley effect, in which polls overstate the support for the black candidate. This effect was never more than 2-3 percentage points in the first place, and signs of it disappeared over a decade ago. You might want to know if cell phone users are undersampled. Perhaps, but only by a little, and that’s a population that favors Obama by an even larger margin than the general population. You might want to know if pollsters’ likely voter models are off. This effect isn’t going to be more than a few points, and could well be zero. All of these potential errors are either negligible or suggest that Obama has more support than polls now state. In short, the wind is at Barack Obama’s back. I currently expect a final outcome of Obama 318-364 EV, McCain 174-220 EV.

http://election.princeton.edu/2008/1...-do/#more-1773

**MannyIsGod** · 10-12-2008

4 national polls out so far this morning and Obama is within 2 points of 51% in all of them.

So inconsistent I tell you. They're all over the place!!!!! I'd be willing to bet money that Gallup comes in probably right at 51.

**exstatic** · 10-12-2008

Originally Posted by Findog

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.

The point is, that by actively fighting, spending in, and contesting states like this, he's forcing McCain to engage there too, instead of spending in battleground states like PA and OH.

The campaign resource disparity is really rearing it's ugly head at the GOP. The world it truly turned upside down when the young brother is the "have", and the old white Republican is the "have not".

**Bartleby** · 10-12-2008

McCain's lifeblood is the money he gets from the RNC. I wonder if they're going to shift into damage control as his bid for the WH starts to look more and more like a lost cause and start using that money for close Congressional races instead (if they haven't already).

**MannyIsGod** · 10-12-2008

There were rumors the RNC was going to cut off funding to McCain shortly. I don't know how much truth to put in this, but I wonder when they pulled it on Dole.

**MannyIsGod** · 10-12-2008

Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

4 national polls out so far this morning and Obama is within 2 points of 51% in all of them.

So inconsistent I tell you. They're all over the place!!!!! I'd be willing to bet money that Gallup comes in probably right at 51.

I was wrong, they came in at 50! GASP.

**Cry Havoc** · 10-12-2008

Originally Posted by Findog

North Carolina is a luxury target for Obama anyways. He certainly doesn't need it.

Well that's what I'm saying. If he's going after "luxury" states, he's got it wrapped.

**Johnny_Blaze_47** · 10-12-2008

Seeing those NC numbers make me laugh at this statement from a student at Liberty University about why she registered to vote in the battleground state of Virginia.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...oryId=95414732

And it worked. Junior Sarah Blanzy, for example, switched her registration from North Carolina to Virginia. The reason was simple.

"North Carolina is going to go red," she says. "I'm not really too worried about that, and I am nervous about the outcome of Virginia. I feel like my vote may be a little more important here."

**MannyIsGod** · 10-12-2008

Well that student has the right idea. McCain has to pray that NC holds as is and that he can win Virginia in order to have a chance. In the regard that if Obama wins NC he's already won VA a vote in VA is more valuable.

**MannyIsGod** · 10-12-2008

I'm going to spend next weekend in NM on an extended weekend and then the weekend afterwards I'll be in MI and plan to spend at the least one day volunteering and canvassing in OH. Depending on school/getting my airfare changed I may stay an extra week up there and spend that week canvassing in OH or I may come back and spend the last weekend before election day in FL or CO.

**MannyIsGod** · 10-12-2008

Lovely

http://www.news-leader.com/article/2...OGS09/81009018

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