How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Findog]

I suppose I could be posting to point out how all the fraudulent registrations are impacting many of the weights in these polls...is that what you guys want me to do? I kinda already did it...but I could do it in more detail.

ACORN has nothing to do with Obama being up 8-9 points in the national tracking polls. Registration fraud is very different from voter fraud. ACORN is a tiny molehill the GOP wants to turn into a gigantic mountain.

[Findog]

#1. That's hilarious coming from a guy whose stock response during that period was: Obama will win. Obama will win. To every poll posted.

Every poll posted during that time was tainted by the convention bounces. It was artificial noise.

#5. I've already listed numerous times why I think the polls favor the Democrats,

Yes, you think they are oversampling Democrats. Every pollster worth his or her salt disagrees with you.

(similar to what you were doing during the surge only with 10x more thought, intelligence and analysis behind it in my case) I don't really see what I have to add.

I really wish Obama had the balls to dismiss this "surge worked" nonsense. Hooray, we put thousands of insurgents on the US payroll and they don't attack us anymore. What a shock!

[whottt]

Every poll posted during that time was tainted by the convention bounces. It was artificial noise.

And the ones posted during an economic collapse blamed on Bush, and McCain by association, aren't?

Not even when I ing posted some internals that proved some of them them upped the weight of Democrats in them as a response to that collapse?

Yes, you think they are oversampling Democrats. Every pollster worth his or her salt disagrees with you.

Yayaya...lots of people with extensive polling experience are saying the same things. Ironically enough...I consider those to be worth their salt.


Plus...I've already had this discussion 10 times in this thread since bailout, was it really needed again.

I really wish Obama had the balls to dismiss this "surge worked" nonsense. Hooray, we put thousands of insurgents on the US payroll and they don't attack us anymore. What a shock!

Idiot...I was referring to the Palin surge.

[TheMadHatter]

Where was this similar outrage when the CEO of ing Diebold said he would do everything he could to deliver Ohio to the GOP???

Please ACORN is a non ing issue compared to what the GOP has done behind the scenes with voter disqualification and hacking of electronic voting machines. I was tempted to just post this quote and leave it there:

"If you ain't cheating, you aint' trying"

Both sides are going to do whatever they can to increase their vote count. May the best man win.

[Findog]

And the ones posted during an economic collapse blamed on Bush, and McCain by association, aren't?

It's not a surprise that when the media was discussing "lipstick on a pig," McCain was doing better in the polls. When the election turned to things that actually matter in people's lives, voters turned to the candidate that they trust better on the economy. That's not an artificial bounce, that's simply an election centered around actual issues instead of bull culture wars.

Yayaya...lots of people with extensive polling experience are saying the same things. Ironically enough...I consider those to be worth their salt.

Name them.

Idiot...I was referring to the Palin surge.

You'll have to forgive me, I've never heard the term "Palin surge" before. I assume that's what happens in your pants every time you think about her. Whenever I hear some right-wing war supporter offhandedly reference the surge without any adjective preceding it, you'll have to excuse me if I automatically assume you're referencing the failed war in Iraq.

[ElNono]

And the ones posted during an economic collapse blamed on Bush, and McCain by association, aren't?

Is it Obama's fault that McCain is an ignorant in economics (as stated by himself)?. You're telling me the economy will be all peachy in the next 3 weeks? Because that's what people want to hear about.

Not even when I ing posted some internals that proved some of them them upped the weight of Democrats in them as a response to that collapse?

Your cherry-picked polls. I actually posted another poll from the exact same page where you got yours that has even dems and reps in it. But that poll doesn't count because it makes you look really stupid, right?

Yayaya...lots of people with extensive polling experience are saying the same things. Ironically enough...I consider those to be worth their salt.

O RLY? Some republican internet blog has 'extensive polling experience'?

Plus...I've already had this discussion 10 times in this thread since bailout, was it really needed again.

We all enjoy the opportunity to watch you make a fool of yourself... It never gets old!

Idiot...I was referring to the Palin surge.

That's working out great for McCain, isn't it? Tell me, who did more interviews since she was introduced as VP candidate, Tina Fey as Sarah Palin, or Sarah Palin as Sarah Palin?

[Findog]

Manny, if you were a McCain adviser, what state combination would you be gunning for? It looks like he'd have to comeback and take Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. That's a tall task but it looks like that'd be his only shot.

Agreed?

McCain should stop any and all campaigning in Kerry states and draw a Maginot Line in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm not sure anyone's even mentioned it on here, but Obama has such a huge money advantadge he's bought a block of time for next week on every major network. 30 minute free national stump speech ftw.

[01.20.09]

I hope McCain doesn't pull off a Reagan like comeback.

[florige]

Naw....but until major changes start happening I don't really have anything else to say.


Basically if I were to post I'd say I think the polls are BS, list my reasons, then the asshats pileon ensues...we've already done that 10 times so unless I got something new to add or I see you guys adding something new, I don't really see any point in going over the same . But I do still read the thread....

Yeah dude, we like reading your assessments even though we might not agree with them all the time....

[MannyIsGod]

This probably the best proof McCain's losing so badly in the enthusiasm battle. Bush has dominated early voting in the past 2 elections.

...    Poll    % Voted                  Non-Early
State  Date      Early   Early Voters   Likely Voters
====================================================
NM     10/13     10%     Obama +23%     Obama +6%
OH     10/13     12%     Obama +18%     Obama +4%
GA     10/12     18%     Obama +6%      McCain +11%
IA     10/9      14%     Obama +34%     Obama +10%
NC     10/6       5%     Obama +34%     McCain +5%

These are SUSA numbers. They're not supposed to be taken as extremey accurate but they are accurate in a general sense

[florige]

McCain should stop any and all campaigning in Kerry states and draw a Maginot Line in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado.

At this point he doesn't have a choice. He has to try to defend the Bush states and pray for a miracle.

[MannyIsGod]

What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.

Keep in mind that there are veteran pollsters like Ann Selzer who think that most of her colleagues are vastly understating the degree to which youth and minority turnout is liable to improve in this election; Selzer's polls have been 5-6 points more favorable to Obama than the averages in the states that she's surveyed. So while these early voting numbers could turn out to be something of a curiosity, they could alternatively represent a canary in the coal mine for a coming Democratic turnout wave.

Nate Silvers's thoughts on these numbers.

[MannyIsGod]

Its funny to listen Whottt talk about weights being off for a couple of reasons. One, I've given him examples of pollsters that do NOT weight polls to begin with (and they show the same results as everyone else - Obama domination) and he also never discusses the ways in which weighting may be underpeforming for Obama

Its important to note that most pollsters are using 2004 numbers to project African American turnout. I would say there's at least a - oh i don't know, 100%? - decent chance that those numbers will be surpassed in this election.

There's an important effect that was tracked in the primary states where Obama had a large AA base to rally (IE NC) and the effect was consistent. It involved him OUTPERFORMING the polls on election day.

[boutons_]

Obama Dominating Among Early Voters in Five Swing States



http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...voters-in.html

[ElNono]

Naw....but until major changes start happening I don't really have anything else to say.

So you're basically done for the next 4 years... that's a relief.

[Wild Cobra]

Where was this similar outrage when the CEO of ing Diebold said he would do everything he could to deliver Ohio to the GOP???

LOL

LOL

LOL

That's been so disproven! You lib s just don't let go of proven propaganda, ever, do you?

Find the quote, in full context, and you will see you are the fool that you are. I've seen it, and you those propagating that , are so full of it. Besides, why do you lib s keep looking backwards when we need to look forward?

If anyone cheated on E-Voting in Ohio, it was the democrats:

[JoeChalupa]

All you young voters better be ready to walk the talk!!!! And get in there and early vote so you can party on 11/04!!

[ElNono]

Besides, why do you lib s keep looking backwards when we need to look forward?

If anyone cheated on E-Voting in Ohio, it was the democrats:

So, which one is it? forward or backwards?

[florige]

McCain giving up on WI as well????



http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...wisconsin.html

[MannyIsGod]

McCain giving up on WI as well????



http://politicalwire.com/archives/20...wisconsin.html

nope

Those McCain Wisc. rumors

Posted: Wednesday, October 15, 2008 1:31 PM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under: States, 2008, McCain

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Despite swirling rumors that the McCain campaign's days of full court press in Wisconsin may be numbered, NBC confirms that the Republican nominee's team has bought ad time in markets there next week. But the RNC's independent expenditure arm has stopped its efforts in the Badger State, as well as in Maine, where McCain hopes to snag one of the state's electoral votes.

The RNC's ad cash is already flowing into markets in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania. And newly added to that list in the home stretch to November 4th: battlegrounds Colorado and Missouri.

[florige]

nope

Those McCain Wisc. rumors

Posted: Wednesday, October 15, 2008 1:31 PM by Carrie Dann
Filed Under: States, 2008, McCain

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Despite swirling rumors that the McCain campaign's days of full court press in Wisconsin may be numbered, NBC confirms that the Republican nominee's team has bought ad time in markets there next week. But the RNC's independent expenditure arm has stopped its efforts in the Badger State, as well as in Maine, where McCain hopes to snag one of the state's electoral votes.

The RNC's ad cash is already flowing into markets in Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania. And newly added to that list in the home stretch to November 4th: battlegrounds Colorado and Missouri.

Holy you are quick to the draw dude....

[MannyIsGod]

LOL I just happend to be scanning through the news when you posted that.

[JoeChalupa]

Man I miss Tim Russert.

[florige]

Man I miss Tim Russert.

Me too! He was always good at breaking it down when the pst two elections were really close on election night. Hopefully we won't have that dilimna to worry about this time around.....