How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[MannyIsGod]

Not much good news today for McCain although the national tracking polls seem to be leveling out somewhat at about +7 for Obama.

But the fact that we're talking about places like WV and maybe even places like AR being contested means they're still in deep . McCain is being outspent 3 to 1 in marketing in these swing states. So much is stacked against him. +7 in the national polls sounds better than +10 but really trying to move those polls 7 points in under 3 weeks is a horrible barrel to be looking down.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, and the GA number is really really really interesting because of the early voting numbers coming out of that state regarding the percentage of black Americans heading to the polls. I don't think its particularly likely, but the odds of Obama reaching a 400 EV threshold are growing by the day. I still think its an ouside shot, probably under 10% and it would be shocking by any barometer but I do think it is now possible. And really, if there is a shot at 400 EVs then we shouldn't even be discussing chanes of a McCain presidency because they likely don't exsist.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually the chances for 395 are probably around 10% but the chances for 400 are probably closer to 1% due to the state EV breakdown. And they may be honestly lower than 10% but those early voting figures are so damn nice I may be pushing it.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I do want to say this. What are the chances that McCain's numbers rise once the undecideds who are primarily Republican/McCain finally make their decisions? I would expect that would lessen the current gap.

[Findog]

I do want to say this. What are the chances that McCain's numbers rise once the undecideds who are primarily Republican/McCain finally make their decisions. I would expect that would lessen the current gap.

A lot of the statistical models predict a tightening of the race, but look at it this way: If the aggregate of all national tracking polls has Obama up 50-43, with 7% of the electorate undecided...

McCain needs ALL of the remaining undecideds to break for him en masse. He can still get to 270, but he needs to stop ing around in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and divert all resources to Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Colorado. He has a slim chance to pull out a win in the EC based on a successful defense of the 2004 Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico.

[Findog]

Here's another thought I had: neither candidate has been spending much time in Colorado, and it's a state Obama HAS to have if he can't flip Florida, Ohio or Virginia. If Obama loses the latter three, Colorado is a must-win for him.

So, with that in mind, why isn't Obama making more of a play there? Why isn't McCain maintaining more of a defense there? Why is McCain spending so much time in Pennsylvania? Is the race closer there according to internal polling, or is McCain making a strategic decision to contest a Kerry state because he knows Colorado, along with Iowa and New Mexico are lost? Remember, Obama wins this thing if he's got the Kerry States + Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. He wouldn't need Florida, Virginia or Ohio.

Iowa and New Mexico are definitely going blue, so Colorado is a potential clincher. If Obama has Colorado, McCain has no choice but to try and flip a blue state.

[MannyIsGod]

Here's another thought I had: neither candidate has been spending much time in Colorado, and it's a state Obama HAS to have if he can't flip Florida, Ohio or Virginia. If Obama loses the latter three, Colorado is a must-win for him.

So, with that in mind, why isn't Obama making more of a play there? Why isn't McCain maintaining more of a defense there? Why is McCain spending so much time in Pennsylvania? Is the race closer there according to internal polling, or is McCain making a strategic decision to contest a Kerry state because he knows Colorado, along with Iowa and New Mexico are lost? Remember, Obama wins this thing if he's got the Kerry States + Iowa/New Mexico/Colorado. He wouldn't need Florida, Virginia or Ohio.

Iowa and New Mexico are definitely going blue, so Colorado is a potential clincher. If Obama has Colorado, McCain has no choice but to try and flip a blue state.

I don't know why you would think they're not concentrating a lot of efforts there but I know that the campaign sure is. Not to mention the polls out of CO are extremely favorable. I know we're sending volunteers there from San Antonio and its probably the state we're sending the most to.

[MannyIsGod]

Colorado

• Total spent:
  $2.5 million
• Advantage:
  +$510K, Obama

Florida

• Total spent:
  $6.5 million
• Advantage:
  +$2.9M, Obama

Indiana

• Total spent:
  $2.7 million
• Advantage:
  +$1.1M, Obama

Iowa

• Total spent:
  $1.2 million
• Advantage:
  +$30K, Obama

Maine

• Total spent:
  $372,000
• Advantage:
  +$222K, McCain

Michigan

• Total spent:
  $2.3 million
• Advantage:
  +$2.3M, Obama

Minnesota

• Total spent:
  $1.3M
• Advantage:
  +$67K, Obama

Missouri

• Total spent:
  $2.8 million
• Advantage:
  +$1.2M, Obama

Montana

• Total spent:
  $250,000
• Advantage:
  +$250K, Obama

New Hampshire

• Total spent:
  $1.4 million
• Advantage:
  +$811K, Obama

North Carolina

• Total spent:
  $3.9 million
• Advantage:
  +$310K, Obama

New Mexico

• Total spent:
  $1.1 million
• Advantage:
  +$330K, Obama

Nevada

• Total spent:
  $1.5 million
• Advantage:
  +$540K, Obama

Ohio

• Total spent:
  $7 million
• Advantage:
  +$1.3M, Obama

Pennsylvania

• Total spent:
  $6.4 million
• Advantage:
  +$1.2M, Obama

Virginia

• Total spent:
  $5 million
• Advantage:
  +$2.8K, Obama

Wisconsin

• Total spent:
  $2.6 million
• Advantage:
  +$358K, Obama

[MannyIsGod]

I know that last post is formatted in a ty manner but thats as good as its going to get. Anyway, the point is to show you how much Obama outspent McCain by this past week and to show you just how much of McCain's money is in danger when the RNC pulls the plug. Its pretty drastic. You don't make up advantages by spending less, thats for damn sure.

[whottt]

I know that last post is formatted in a ty manner but thats as good as its going to get. Anyway, the point is to show you how much Obama outspent McCain by this past week and to show you just how much of McCain's money is in danger when the RNC pulls the plug. Its pretty drastic. You don't make up advantages by spending less, thats for damn sure.

Eh...Palin out draws all of the other guys on TV and I believe she does so in personal appearances as well. That's all that money is doing.

The Republican 527 Ads are the ones doing the damage to Obama anyway.

[MannyIsGod]

The 527s are almost silent right now. They're not making a big impact at all. Most of their impact has been through web ads which only get limited airplay if they're picked up on news shows.

Great, Palin draws 10-15k at an appearence or 2 each day where she speaks to people that are already going to vote for McCain. Mean while, Obama reaches millions upon millions in a far more effective manner through ads each day. But sure, we'll call it a draw because we all know you think Palin is the best thing since sliced bread.

[Findog]

The Republican 527 Ads are the ones doing the damage to Obama anyway.

To the tune of a 7-point Obama lead in the tracking polls.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Just for s-and-giggles, what's Texas look like?

[florige]

Just for s-and-giggles, what's Texas look like?

It's still pretty red the last I checked. I'm sure Manolo will have some figures though.

[MannyIsGod]

Red as . No one's going to poll it though so we'll just have to wait till the election to see if there was any movement. I'm hoping for a single digit loss and hoping that my prescient owns for Obama.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Red as . No one's going to poll it though so we'll just have to wait till the election to see if there was any movement. I'm hoping for a single digit loss and hoping that my prescient owns for Obama.

What about the money? I know I've seen more Obama ads recently.

[Findog]

Red as . No one's going to poll it though so we'll just have to wait till the election to see if there was any movement. I'm hoping for a single digit loss and hoping that my prescient owns for Obama.

Obama will win the cities, as they will be light blue. The suburbs and exurbs will be pink, and the rural areas will be blood red.

[MannyIsGod]

On local TV or national TV? I don't think I've seen any ads on local TV. I know I see them on national channels but I'm about 99% sure I've not seen a single ad on a local TV station nor heard one on a local radio station.

When I was in MI a few weeks back I watch any TV but every time I got into the car and listened to the radio I heard Obama ads (and a few McCain ads).

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Then I guess it'd be ABC buys since I saw the ads at work.

[JoeChalupa]

Come on Barack!!!!

[MannyIsGod]

Then I guess it'd be ABC buys since I saw the ads at work.

Was it during a national news broadcast? My interest is peaked now.

[Findog]

I don't know why you would think they're not concentrating a lot of efforts there but I know that the campaign sure is. Not to mention the polls out of CO are extremely favorable. I know we're sending volunteers there from San Antonio and its probably the state we're sending the most to.

It's just that none of the four principals seem to have stumped there recently.

[MannyIsGod]

Well Barack spent a lot of time in OH recently and in debate prep as well. Its hard for them to be everywhere but I expect him to be back there again before the end of the election.

The problem with Colorado is that its so isolated comapred to the other battleground states. Its easy to travel inbetween OH, IN, VA, and NC since they're all fairly close to each other and teh coverage you get is likely to bleed into MI, WV, and PA because they share certain media markets.

[florige]

Obama's lead drops 2 points against McCain....


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...poll-of-polls/

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Obama's lead drops 2 points against McCain....


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...poll-of-polls/

i heard they're all dropping.