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If he started popping his collar and talked about bringing uzis and glocks to a game then maybe he'd have a shot.
These things don't usually get me too worked up, but I read ESPN's pre-season awards watch and noted that (not surprisingly, perhaps) Tim Duncan wasn't among the 5 players to be watched for Defensive Player of the Year. Having watched Bruce Bowen get screwed over for years, I think it would be all the more appalling to see Duncan retire without ever having won that award -- particularly after seeing Garnett get it last year.
I started looking at some numbers in an effort to validate my belief that Duncan has long-deserved DPOY and that he has simply been ignored by the voters for any number of reasons. Generally, Duncan is excluded from the conversation because: (1) he doesn't put up great defensive numbers, they say; and (2) his teammates are good defenders.
The first argument strikes me as being completely bogus. Among active players in the main defensive categories, Duncan is 6th in blocks per game (2.42) and 1st in rebounds per game (11.83). The rebounds per game aren't artificially inflated by offensive boards, since Duncan is 4th among active players in defensive rebounding percentage. And for stat geeks like me who don't look to more comprehensive metrics, Duncan is 1st among active players in Defensive Rating and 1st among active players in Defensive Win Shares.
Well, yeah, yeah, yeah, FWD -- those are career numbers and the award is an annual award. But in each of those categories, Duncan has spent every year of his career among the best players in the game.
If you exclude 04-05 (when he didn't play enough games to qualify in per game categories), these are Duncan's finishes in RPG and BPG:
RPG: 3rd, 5th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 7th, 4th
BPG: 6th, 7th, 7th, 9th, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 5th, 8th
Take into consideration that his minutes have been fairly low for the last few seasons, and his dominance becomes pretty evident. In fact, the metrics that normalize for minutes demonstrate that, I think -- these are Duncan's annual finishes in Defensive Rating and Defensive Win Shares:
DR: 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd
DWS: 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 4th
Thus, while his career numbers are exceptional, his numbers are exceptional every single season -- no off-years.
Likewise, it hasn't mattered who Tim's teammates are, his teams have been the consistent dominant defensive force in this league during his career. Since Duncan entered the league the Spurs' worst finish in FG% Defense is 5th; their worst finish in PPG allowed is 3rd; and if you normalize those numbers for pace, their worst finish in Defensive Rating is 3rd. Here are what the Spurs' finishes are annually in those categories:
FG% D: 1st, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 4th (tie), 2nd (tie), 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 5th
PPG D: 1st, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 1st (tie), 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd
Def. Rating: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Obviously, the numbers show that the Spurs have been great defensively over a very long period of time, and that the greatness on that end has been sustained. But over that stretch, there is only 1 on-court constant: Duncan. To that end, the NBA coaches have realized what the guy does, naming him 1st Team All-Defense in 8 of his 11 seasons and 2nd Team All-Defense in the other 3.
I guess my point in all of this rambling is that there's ABSOLUTELY no way that Duncan should be excluded from a list of DPOY candidates when those who are named are Kevin Garnett, Shane Battier, Marcus Camby, Josh Smith, and Ron Artest. I'm largely preaching to the choir on this one; and I'm sure I'll get considerable criticism from many of our friends who aren't big fans of the Spurs or Tim Duncan. I'll admit that I might be a year or two late with this, too. Still, it's curious to me that the media that votes on this award and decides every year who gets the buzz to win the award hasn't noticed just how good Duncan is defensively every year, despite consistently dominant numbers.
Maybe we should start a campaign . . . .
If he started popping his collar and talked about bringing uzis and glocks to a game then maybe he'd have a shot.
He could try but I think he'd start rattling off Halo weaponry. "I'm ready to go to war, dawg. Loading up my plasma rifle, my Needlers, gonna drop the bomb on them. Master Chief in da house!"
As for DPOY, I really just wish they'd let the coaches do the voting. With each passing season I find myself more and more exasperated with the media votes.
I noticed the same from the article.
I could understand Garnett and to an extent Artest, but Battier hasn't even been remotely close to Bowen as a perimeter defender the last few years, Camby winning the DPoY two years ago certified the award as a stats award, and Josh Smith is the new Kirilenko.
Duncan is every bit as good a defensive player as those five, and I can understand him not winning the DPoY award, as people who voted has little to no understanding of defensive concepts in basketball, but to not even make the final list is just absurd.
If it weren't for the Spurs having a good shot at a ring every year, this American Idol league would get old really fast.
I could see someone saying, "What would you rather have the plasma or the needler" and he goes into a 30 minute dialogue on his experiences online and on the plane with different weaponry. He would geek it up no question
You present a fantastic argument as always FWD. I also feel that it will be a crime if Duncan retires without a DPOY on his resume. But I think we are too late on this one now. His numbers validate the award in almost any given year, but knowing how the voting goes there's no way Duncan will show as flashily dominate as others may. His defense is like the rest of his game, it's not flashy enough to make those highlight reels. But it's a joy to watch and it wins Championships. I'll have to settle for more rings.
I think that's the thing that bothers me about it, though. Garnett's individual numbers last season were good, but not stellar -- 9.2 rpg, 1.3 bpg, 1.4 spg. Duncan's individual numbers (11.3 rpg, 1.9 bpg, .7 spg) were better. But for the first time in a long time, Garnett got the award not because he put up flashy numbers, but because he arguably made his team noticably better on the defensive end. Given that basis to give Garnett the award, it makes no sense to me to penalize Duncan just because his teams have been so good defensively for so long, while he's put up dominating numbers.You present a fantastic argument as always FWD. I also feel that it will be a crime if Duncan retires without a DPOY on his resume. But I think we are too late on this one now. His numbers validate the award in almost any given year, but knowing how the voting goes there's no way Duncan will show as flashily dominate as others may. His defense is like the rest of his game, it's not flashy enough to make those highlight reels. But it's a joy to watch and it wins Championships. I'll have to settle for more rings.
I guess it's just frustrating that the media love for KG will get him that award while the media indifference to Duncan makes him, essentially, an after-thought when it comes that award.
Duncan is the best defensive player in the NBA and has been since he first stepped on the court in 1997. He is on the short list of best defensive players of all time. The only players as good as Duncan on D would be (maybe) Bill Russell and Hakeem Olajuwon.
Welcome to my world.
The media indifference is hard to deal with, I still get aggravated with it after all these years. There's no logical reason for Duncan to be an after-thought with the talent he displays on the court year in and year out.
Duncan's preference to stay out of the spotlight and let his game speak for him doesn't help him get the media love a player like Garnett does. Duncan just doesn't provide the sound bites and the highlight reels others do. IMO his game does speak for him, and the numbers you so wonderfully presented should be more than enough for anyone to see he's deserved this award at least a couple of times over.
Duncan should have gotten the award at some point, he anchors the defense on this great defensive team, and he has for years.
I remember this other center by the name of Robinson who was a uva defensive player.
Marcus Camby
What can ya say? Both Tim and Bruce are a combo of the best defenders the spurs have ever had. But we know they're better then the names mentioned and thats all that matters. And if the rings Timmy and Bruce dont prove it, and they dont seem to make much noise about it. Then its all media and stuff that people like duncan228 love to cheerlead about. hahahahaha.....
the year marcus camby won one, the year pacers/pistons brawls duncan shouldve won that also, and one of mutombos i believe.
any knowledgeable basketball fan knows that Tim should have at least 2 DPOY awards..the award is a joke, and Marcus Camby winning one is a perfect example of that..
Duncan's probably the best defender of this generation, as proven by metric stats and defensive team stats, considering he's the anchor..Tim has been the constant with our many different players over the years..
Garnett completely deserved the award last year..but he DIDN'T win because of "his image"..he won it, because he got traded and because he got traded TO BOSTON..if Tim got traded, his defensive impact would be clear..if Tim got traded to a big market team, he would easily win the award too..it's not really Duncan's image, it's because of his team and city IMO..
despite being a stellar defender, he (& bowen) hasn't won one... and never will.
They should just let the coaches do all of the votings. DPoY, MVP, etc. It still doesn't make sense to me (other than its commercial value) why the league insists on involving the media when they have more competent judges.
This has been my biggest problem for a long time also.
Before Duncan came to San Antonio, they hovered around the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency.
As soon as Duncan rocked up in 97, the Spurs have been in the top 3 in Defensive efficiency every single year. That was before Bowen turned up. Bruce is great in his own right, and he should have an award also, but Duncan is on the list of all time top defenders, with the likes of D-Rob, Hakeem and Bill Russell.
But KG is exciting!
Yeah it is so thrilling to watch a guy brick 20 jumpers in a row, then beat your chest when one goes down
Yeah it is kind of annoying that Duncan is not likely to get DPOY. He has had one of the best careers on that end of the floor, of any big man ever in terms of all team selections. But if one day someone wants to bash him by saying he "Never won this award" it will annoy me because we know he should have. But that is what happens when the press votes for this . They are morons, they know nothing.
The Spurs wouldn't be the Spurs if they were getting all kinds of media recognition. They fly under the radar and are ignored by people who would love to see them disappear, but they've rattled off 4 les in the face of that situation. Tim Duncan is the Robin Hood of basketball.
I think the idea that bothers me isn't that the Spurs and Duncan aren't attention s. Duncan was able to win consecutive MVP's despite the fact that he's not a media friendly guy. What bothers me, I think, is the willingness to credit Garnett's impact on the defensive end without numbers while continually refusing to do that for Duncan (or Bowen), who's been that sort of difference-maker for the entirety of his career. I suppose that the points aren't really separable -- Garnett gets that credit, I suppose, because those who decide those awards are enamored of him more than they are of Duncan. I guess, however, my ultimate is that it's not just Garnett who gets more credit. To have a list alleging to be a list of the 5 most likely DPOY candidates and to exclude Duncan from that list while including Garnett is just asinine.
I'm inclined to use every weekly chat with Marc Stein, John Hollinger, Chad Ford . . . whomever . . . to ask why Duncan is never truly considered for that award, particularly given the fact that Garnett's exceptional year is about in line with Duncan's average year.
Sadly, I doubt Bowen or Duncan will ever win DPOY. That East Coast media pretty much decides who is going to win that award and they have never had much love for the Spurs, Duncan, or Bowen for that matter. If they do give them the award, they would have to put up unbelievable numbers where you couldn't deny them the award, but it probably will never happen.
Media always votes on the flashy player who makes the biggest impact in that season on his team. They don't really look at stats, they look at player and team profiles. No one expected the Celtics to be as great defensively as they were last season. And of course the media isn't going to credit their outstanding defensive coach, they're going to point to the guy who has the biggest impact on court for them and give him that award.
Spurs will always be penalized in the eyes of these so called NBA Experts for being consistently great year after year. The impact of what guys like Bowen and Duncan do for their teams year in and year out is lost on many just because they instead see players making unexpected teams great. This is why you hardly see Pop's name mentioned as a COY, or Bruce/Duncan as DPOY, or Duncan as MVP etc.
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