How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Bartleby]

Like I said the other day, it's unlikely McCain is going to get any closer than 5 points from here on out. Obama is closing the deal in these last two weeks and looking to go into the WH with a mandate.

[MannyIsGod]

So tell me Manny...why do you think the polls are tightening up?

I already stated why I think so...it's so they can claim to be a legitimate indicator of who will win elections...and if those guys continue polling the way they have been that certainly won't be the case.

The polls making any significant tightening is news to me. As I stated before, I pretty much perceive to the election to be in a state of equilibrium at the moment. McCain's numbers have improved in certain polls and worsened in others.

That being said, it looks like he gained a slight amount of ground, but I think this is a trend that should continue up until election day. I don't think its going to get closer per say, but some natural tightening is to be expected as some undecideds come home to McCain.

[florige]

Check it out guys....



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsWpvkLCvu4

[MannyIsGod]

haha dude thats old school.

[MannyIsGod]

"Democrats are voting early in greater numbers than their Republican counterparts in several closely contested states, reversing a pattern that favored the GOP in past elections," according to USA Today.

"The trend is evident in Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico, state and county figures show. In Georgia, blacks are voting in greater numbers than they did in 2004."

"The early voting trend is about even in Colorado. Republicans claim the edge among absentee voters in Florida, but Democrats are voting in far greater numbers at early voting polling places where voters lined up this week."

Said Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center: "This cannot be good news for John McCain. It's the 100-yard dash, and Obama is already 20 yards ahead."

The "I Told" of my "I Told You So" Posts has already been written.

Bexar Count early voting numbers for day 2? Even better than day 1 - 31,413 for a total of 60,532.

[Findog]

So tell me Manny...why do you think the polls are tightening up?

I already stated why I think so...it's so they can claim to be a legitimate indicator of who will win elections...and if those guys continue polling the way they have been that certainly won't be the case.

You have a great blog:

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=107628

[JoeChalupa]

Race is tighter than ever.

"The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord."


Come on people!!!

[Findog]

Race is tighter than ever.

"The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord."


Come on people!!!

Calm the down.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...e-suspect.html

Polls that have Obama up 13 points are outliers, a single poll showing Obama +1 where 44% of the respondents are evangelical christians when they made up 23% of the electorate in 2004 is an outlier as well. It also has McCain winning the 18-24 vote. The truth is that Obama is up by about 5-7 points right now. If there were tectonic shift to McCain the other polls would show that movement too, and they haven't.

These polls give the Freepers something to talk about and for whottt to masturbate to.

[JoeChalupa]

Calm the down.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...e-suspect.html

Polls that have Obama up 13 points are outliers, a single poll showing Obama +1 where 44% of the respondents are evangelical christians when they made up 23% of the electorate in 2004 is an outlier as well. It also has McCain winning the 18-24 vote. The truth is that Obama is up by about 5-7 points right now. If there were tectonic shift to McCain the other polls would show that movement too, and they haven't.

These polls give the Freepers something to talk about and for whottt to masturbate to.

I hear ya but I won't be satisfied until January 20, 2009.

[Bartleby]

It also has McCain winning the 18-24 vote.

That alone is a pretty good indication that the poll is off.

[florige]

JC is always looking at the worst case scenario. Obama could be up by 50 and Joe would be all nervous.....

[MannyIsGod]

dun dun dun

The plot thickens

An internal Barack Obama campaign poll has the Democrat ahead of John McCain by just two percentage points.
WILK radio host Steve Corbett said Tuesday he obtained an Obama campaign e-mail about the internal poll showing a tight race. Pollster.com's trend line of public Pennsylvania polls has Obama leading McCain 54 percent to 38 percent.
Obama's Pennsylvania communications director Sean Smith said on Corbett's show that the field organizer who sent the e-mail may have been trying to energize Obama volunteers. Smith wouldn't confirm the internal poll numbers, but he said that the e-mail was sent without permission and that the campaign worker has since been reprimanded.

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008...-pennsylvania/

[Findog]

dun dun dun

The plot thickens




http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008...-pennsylvania/

That's not consistent with their stumping behavior. They've been spending more energy and time lately on Florida, Missouri and Ohio.

[MannyIsGod]

Of course. Its better to fight where you face the least resistance. Why give McCain the bye in those other states if he wants to focus on nothing else but PA? Losing any of those other states means he loses as well.

[Findog]

Of course. Its better to fight where you face the least resistance. Why give McCain the bye in those other states if he wants to focus on nothing else but PA? Losing any of those other states means he loses as well.

It's also possibly that they could've leaked that poll to give McCain false hope. I do believe that the race in Penn is tighter than the public polls, there's got to be a reason why McCain continues to spend so much time there in the face of unfriendly polling. But Pennsylvania as a whole, thanks to Pitt and Philly, is much bluer than Virginia, Missouri and North Carolina. I don't know in what universe Virginia turns blue in accordance with the national electorate but Pennsylvania flips red. There's not enough white racist rednecks in Western Penn to cancel out Philly and Pitt.

[Shastafarian]

It's also possibly that they could've leaked that poll to give McCain false hope. I do believe that the race in Penn is tighter than the public polls, there's got to be a reason why McCain continues to spend so much time there in the face of unfriendly polling. But Pennsylvania as a whole, thanks to Pitt and Philly, is much bluer than Virginia, Missouri and North Carolina. I don't know in what universe Virginia turns blue in accordance with the national electorate but Pennsylvania flips red. There's not enough white racist rednecks in Western Penn to cancel out Philly and Pitt.

I've never been but aren't there a lot of conservatives in Pittsburgh?

[Findog]

I've never been but aren't there a lot of conservatives in Pittsburgh?

It's not as liberal as Philly, so Obama's margins there won't be as impressive, but it IS a Union town.

[Shastafarian]

It's not as liberal as Philly, so Obama's margins there won't be as impressive, but it IS a Union town.

Right I know about the unions. But there are so many blue collar workers there I figure the spread is much more even than a city like Philly.

[romad_20]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

[Shastafarian]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

What do you mean "what might happen"? He loses. Maybe they investigate but I doubt anything would happen.

[Findog]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

Then there will have been something seriously wrong with the polls. The Bradley Effect is not a significant factor anymore.

[MannyIsGod]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

Just come out and say it. Why beat around the bush?

[CubanMustGo]

Too bad it's not 2004, then you could have said beat around the Bush.

[Wild Cobra]

This is just a random thought, but has anyone thought of what might happen if Obama is up in the polls by 7-10% and leading in most swing states polls on Mon 3rd and then loses?

I think that's how it's all planned. They can cry cheating again when he loses.

[romad_20]

Just come out and say it. Why beat around the bush?

Its just a question. I would like to know what you think would happen if that scenario played out.

BTW I don't believe there ever was a bradley effect. There were many more issues going on in that election, including gun control, that had way more effect on it than race.