How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[Findog]

Actually...that's not my contention or at least not my only one...keep in mind I'm predicting Obama will wind up with fewer votes than Kerry got in 2004.

You guys keep thinking there's not going to be a price paid for not putting Hillary on the ballot...

I think that's incredibly stupid and shortsighed on ya'lls part....that works under the assumption that all candidates are equal and Americans vote for party over candidate yet there is a mountain of evidence to refute that.

All candidates are not equal...all candidates do not inspire the same people the same way.


If Pat Buchannan had the nomination in 2000 and 2004 he wouldn't have won. If you guys had given the 2004 nomination to anyone but Kerry or Dean you would have won.


But the main reason for my contention? McCain and Palin are much more likeable than W and Cheney were...believe me, it was hard to vote for them....took work for the Democrats to get me to do that....it was a vote cast on pure patriotism, and literally nothing else....

And I don't think you guys are going to pull as many traditional Democratic votes as you think you're goong to...reason being? You didn't put the popular candidate in all the major blue states on the ticket.

I wasn't referring to you, I was referring to the politico article.

[ElNono]

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

LOL,

[florige]

A question for Fin or Manolo. I know both you guys have worked the campaign trail for Obama. The question I have is, does Axelrod travel with Obama everywhere he goes since he is the head of the campaign?

[whottt]

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

smackbat my ass...he's trying to get me to bet based on exit polling. I don't give a what smack he runs...he's full of .

[florige]

smackbat my ass...he's trying to get me to bet based on exit polling. I don't give a what smack he runs...he's full of .

I know you can't wait until this is over Whottt. Win or lose you are back to debating your arch nemesis Timvp in the basketball/spurs forum.

[whottt]

I've had it with you Whottt. I've thought in the past you were actually capable of intellectual discourse, but everything you've posted during this late election season has proved to be otherwise. Why is it so hard for you to look at actual facts and discuss them honestly instead of continuously playing a stupid spin game? Whether its failure to acknowledge numerical evidence in countless shapes and forms or making comparisons that are in no way shape or form analougus to one another you're always coming up with some bull that simply makes no ing sense. Its gotten to the point where no one here gives you credit for being anything other than a blind partisian idiot yet every post you make is nothing more than a complaint about how poorly your beloved Palin is treated or how idiotic the posters of this board are when you can't even be bothered to read a ing chart correctly before blowing your wad. Its just re ed as and you've quickly reached the depts of bouton's level posting. You're not even as good as NBADan anymore and that should tell you how sad things are.

Anyway, that was my rant, but lets take a look at the idiocy of your most recent post in this thread.

I've asked you several times in this thread a very simple question: What will be the demographic breakdown of an electorate with an increased turnout that would supposedly support a better outcome for McCain and several times you've either completely avoided the question or given me a ridiculous answer. I never said a damn thing about Lousianan or Texas going blue yet instead of answering the question I posed you choose to attribute stupid assertions to me that I've never made because you know god damn well there is no way to spin that in states like Georgia and North CArolina where we're seeing huge early voting turnout when compared to 2004 we're seeing that turnout made up dispraportionatly by African Americans.

If African Americans end up making up an extra 2% of the electorate in key states thats virtually 2% that Obama gets almost entirely due to how strongly they support him. Considering that in certain states African Americans are voting at 2-3x the rate in 2004 a modest 20% increase in the electorates turnout is far from impossible and actually quite conservative. This is something that polls aren't even taking into account and when you consider that Obama is already leading these polls I'm just curious as to how McCain is going to overcome an even bigger hurdled presented by increased turnout?

Now, are you capable of actually providing reasoning for what you are thinking or are you simply going to go through another bull post where you proclaim that Mannylogic dictates Mars is going to go blue?

Um..hey Ace...Lousiana fits your early voting African American criteria to a T...it was a very valid statement based on your own criteria.

And are you calling Georgia blue? If so just make the call...

As for my demographic breakdown...

Let me put it in my terms..

I think McCain is more attractive to moderates than Bush was, I speak from the position of being a moderate...and don't ing kid yourself, he's more attractive to moderates than Obama is as well. Furthermore I expect him to hold more Bush voters than Obama to hold Kerry voters...

I expect a significant increase in minority voters for Obama....I also expect a decline in white, women, asian and jewish voters(Jews have been trending towards Republicans for 2 election cycles now) for Obama..I expect some of them to go to McCain...I expect some of them not to vote.

I figure Obama will pull about 10 million voters that Kerry didn't in minorities...I figure he's going to lose about 15 million voters that Kerry had at the same time, due to the fact that he's black, named Hussein, has a bevy of anti-American associations, and had an extremely contentious primary with the most popular living Democrat.

I do not see McCain losing the Bush voters anywhere near the degreee that Obama is going to lose Kerry voters...and I see him picking up a substantial amount of traditional Democratic voters...possibly as high as 10 million.

This is why I called McCain getting more votes than Bush in 04, and Obama getting less than Kerry....it was one of the first things I thought about.


You will never see these trends truly reflected in any exit poll btw...

[whottt]

I know you can't wait until this is over Whottt. Win or lose you are back to debating your arch nemesis Timvp in the basketball/spurs forum.

Eh...the way I look at it, even I'm wrong on calling this election..at worst I'll be tied with all the asshats that called a Kerry win in 04...which is about 70% of the people I argue with here daily.

They felt so confident you see...


Getting their ass handed to them didn't shut them up...so why should I?



Funny thing...I wasn't sure W was going to win at all, he was a hard man to vote for.






As for the Spurs...I don't expect there'll be much to debate about this season. I look at it as the swan song of the most successful Spurs core ever...I don't care if they win or lose a le this year, I'll be tipping my hat to them all season...because no one wins them all, and these guys won more than most. The only guy I might rip this season is Pop...for this scrub lekryptonite/letdown supporting roster he assembled.

[LnGrrrR]

You forgot the "boom" when taking out that smack bat.

I'd like to thank you for being a sane conservative.

[florige]

Eh...the way I look at it, even I'm wrong on calling this election..at worst I'll be tied with all the asshats that called a Kerry win in 04...which is about 70% of the people I argue with here daily.

They felt so confident you see...


Getting their ass handed to them didn't shut them up...so why should I?



Funny thing...I wasn't sure W was going to win at all, he was a hard man to vote for.





As for the Spurs...I don't expect there'll be much to debate about this season. I look at it as the swan song of the most successful Spurs core ever...I don't care if they win or lose a le this year, I'll be tipping my hat to them all season...because no one wins them all, and these guys won more than most. The only guy I might rip this season is Pop...for this scrub lekryptonite/letdown supporting roster he assembled.

Even though I was all for Gore, W was charismatic. Gore came off as being an arrogant bag. I think that turned alot of people off from him....

[MannyIsGod]

Um..hey Ace...Lousiana fits your early voting African American criteria to a T...it was a very valid statement based on your own criteria.

And are you calling Georgia blue? If so just make the call...

As for my demographic breakdown...

Let me put it in my terms..

I think McCain is more attractive to moderates than Bush was, I speak from the position of being a moderate...and don't ing kid yourself, he's more attractive to moderates than Obama is as well. Furthermore I expect him to hold more Bush voters than Obama to hold Kerry voters...

I expect a significant increase in minority voters for Obama....I also expect a decline in white, women, asian and jewish voters(Jews have been trending towards Republicans for 2 election cycles now) for Obama..I expect some of them to go to McCain...I expect some of them not to vote.

I figure Obama will pull about 10 million voters that Kerry didn't in minorities...I figure he's going to lose about 15 million voters that Kerry had at the same time, due to the fact that he's black, named Hussein, has a bevy of anti-American associations, and had an extremely contentious primary with the most popular living Democrat.

I do not see McCain losing the Bush voters anywhere near the degreee that Obama is going to lose Kerry voters...and I see him picking up a substantial amount of traditional Democratic voters...possibly as high as 10 million.

This is why I called McCain getting more votes than Bush in 04, and Obama getting less than Kerry....it was one of the first things I thought about.


You will never see these trends truly reflected in any exit poll btw...

Except I'm not using exit polls but the information directly from the state of Georgia. Although polling done by SUSA (Not exit polling either) and some other firms says pretty much the exact same thing. I know its a huge surprise to you, but the data gathered by these pollsters is being verified by the data gathered by the state itself.

Its amazing you give Obama an added 10 million votes than John Kerry from minorities and still have him losing. You were still unable to provide a demographic breakdown but I suspect thats because you have no idea who the is going to supply your magic votes so I'll just let it go. I have a feeling this is about as close as I'm going to get to the answer.

Anyway, on the topic of getting an extra 10 million votes from minorites and losing, you have to understand that Kerry only got 60 million votes in 04. Less actually but for expidency I'll go with 60 million. Out of that, less than 11% was from AA of which Kerry got 90% of the vote, and 8% was Hispanics where Kerry got 55% of the vote. Grand Total of 17 Million votes. So you're saying his vote total from minorities is going to increase by more than 60% and he's still going to lose because of a mass exodous of white voters that we have absolutely no evidence for.

That is downright ing stupid, Whottt. You should have at least stuck to the stupid low voterturnout idea than coming out saying that Obama's support from minorities will grow at that rate and he will still lose. Thats ing idiocy. I'd bet everything I own agaisnt Obama gaining 10 million votes from minorities and doing anything but dominating.

Next time don't pull a number out of your ass when you're butt hurt about being shown for the fool you are because you're merely reinforcing the concept.

[JoeChalupa]

Folks, the race is tightening and AP has FL and OH as statistical ties. The comeback kid McCain is at it again.

[florige]

Folks, the race is tightening and AP has FL and OH as statistical ties. The comeback kid McCain is at it again.

As long as VA is still in Obama's column we are ok.

[florige]

Also Joe, the polls in OH and FL are going to jump around the last few days up until the election. In 04 they flipped flopped between Kerry and Bush a few times.

[MannyIsGod]

Time for you to man up Whottt.

Lets bet 6 months in the political forum. If McCain wins - he doesn't even need to win in a landslide - I will not come in here for 6 months after November fith. If Obama wins, then you stay out for sixth Months after November 5th.

Don't be a - if you really believe what you say you do step up to the plate.

[JoeChalupa]

As long as VA is still in Obama's column we are ok.

Yeah, that is my thinking as well and if Obama holds PA.

[01.20.09]

Rasmusen has Obama only up by 3pts.

[boutons_]

Likely States -- Obama

Safe Obama (23 states, 273 EV) -- CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI.
New Hampshire had one outlier poll a while back, and has since recovered... no matter what the media says about it. Colorado has steadily improved its Obama support, and can now be considered Safe as well. The addition of New Hampshire and Colorado in the Safe Obama category (and the loss of no states here) pushes him over the top just among his safest states. This is the first time this has happened, and should calm a few frayed Democratic nerves heading into the home stretch.


Probable Obama (2 states, 33 EV) -- OH, VA.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-...tml?view=print

[PixelPusher]

Bill O'Reilly's map:



I guess any state where Obama's lead isn't at least 10 points is a "tossup" now.

[dg7md]

Oregon is not a "toss up" by any stretch. Oregon is as blue as California is.

Same goes for Michigan, which is a virtual democratic state now. There's so, so much else wrong with that map.

[CubanMustGo]

Bill O'Reilly's map:



I guess any state where Obama is under 10 points is a "tossup" now.

As opposed to the latest RealClearPolitics map:

[MannyIsGod]

Bill O'Reilly's map:



I guess any state where Obama's lead isn't at least 10 points is a "tossup" now.

That map is ing hilarious.

[CubanMustGo]

That map is ing hilarious.

"The O'Reilly Poll interviewed likely evangelical voters in all 50 states and the District of Columbia ..."

[Nbadan]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet...Rachael Maddow does a brilliant analysis of the state of this election as a analogy of a football game..

[MannyIsGod]

My feeling is that John McCain still needs some sort of external contingency to win the presidency. Even if some of the more conservative turnout models are correct AND even if he were to win large majorities of the undecided vote, he is probably a little bit too far behind to catch up. Rather, McCain will need to find some way to eat into some fraction of Obama's decided vote, and because most of Obama's support is quite hard (e.g. enthusiastic), that will not be easy to do.

I think its clear McCain has made some slight headway in the national polls and this is something that anyone who's followed the polls expected. The most important factor to me, however, is that Obama's support has not wavered but McCain has started to pick up those that were undecided in past polls. While this in itself isn't bad, it is when you see that Obama is averaging 50-51% in most of those polls.

At this point I don't think you'll see much more tightening before November 4. You may see another point or 2 at the max, but considering this is a 5-6 point race thats simply not enough to make this a compe ive race. I'll really be interested to see the polls a few days from now after the Obamamercial from tonight because I thought it was extremely well produced and I think at the least its going to move the pendulum away from McCain but I think its more likely to bring movement back to Obama.

Obama is on the top of a wave right now and I'm not sure there's anything McCain can' do to stop it much less swing it the other way.

[MannyIsGod]

Surprised this hasn't been posted yet...Rachael Maddow does a brilliant analysis of the state of this election as a analogy of a football game..

I saw that live the other night. I think the analogy coming from someone who knows little about sports was meh (Olberman would have been a better delivery for this) but the points she makes are of course incredibly sound.

I think earlier this year when you heard NC was in play you knew the GOP was in deep trouble, but what do these guys have to think when Georgia and Arizona are polling not only in the single digits but around 2-3 points and damn close to the MOE? I anticipated Georgia being close but I never anticipated the type of poll results we're seeing out of Arizona. That's simply insane and I have no idea what ing yard line that's on.