Reply With Quote
I hear ya and I'm not saying Obama will lose because I'm still confident but I also know that polls have been wrong before but I do think he has enough electoral votes to win but it will be closer.
BARACK ON!!
Uh, not really. McCain has probably shaved a point off Obama's lead, but it's taken him a week to do so. And the important thing is that Obama isn't losing support, McCain has simply made small inroads in gaining a bit of undecided support.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...olls-1029.html
It's not over. That said, here's a football analogy:
Obama has the lead and the ball right before the two-minute warning. He needs to get a first down in order to kneel down and run out the clock. McCain needs to force a punt and then go down the field and score a touchdown without any timeouts.
Number one, John McCain is NOT closing Obama's margin as quickly as he needs to (if indeed he is closing it at all). This appears to be a 6- or 7- point race right now ... that's where we have it, that's where RCP has it, that where Pollster.com has it. In order to beat Barack Obama, John McCain will need to gain at least one point per day between now and the election. Our model does think that McCain has pared about a point off Obama's margin -- but it has taken him a week to do so. Now, McCain needs to gain six more points in six more days. And he needs to do so with no real ground game, no real advertsing budget, and no one particularly strong message. Not easy.
I hear ya and I'm not saying Obama will lose because I'm still confident but I also know that polls have been wrong before but I do think he has enough electoral votes to win but it will be closer.
BARACK ON!!
I told you guys how struck by this I was in Ohio and now the post has a story about it. This is the mention from electoral-vote.com along with a link to the article:
Ohio Voters Are Wary of the Integrity of the Election
First-time Ohio voters may be forgiven if they have forgotten the problems and controversies concerning the 2004 Ohio election, but older voters remember them well. Republicans are worried about ineligible voters casting a ballot and Democrats are worried about eligible voters being denied the right to vote. In truth there is hardly any evidence that many ineligible voters have ever voted. In fact, this issue was the heart of the U.S. attorneys scandal, when the Bush administration pushed many U.S. attorneys to prosecute voter fraud and the attorneys argued there really wasn't any fraud to prosecute, which prompted the administration to fire a number of them.
A Pew analysis concluded that undecideds will likely split equally for McCain and Obama on Election Day.
I doubt that but I don't really care. One thing to remember about the true undecideds on election day is that many just won't vote.
Pew stinks.
Man one thing is for sure. Each day that goes by amps up my apprehension level. I'm gripping this morning after listening to Morning Joe and hearing about that stupid PA poll that they haven't released cross tabs for. I can rationally understand that Obama is in a great position but I'd be flat out lying if I said I wasn't worried quite a bit.
It really is Charlie Brown football syndrome, but I'm glad I'll be busy as this weekend because if not I'd probably go nuts hitting the refresh button time and time again.
I'm not buying it. From damn near 15 points a week ago to 4 points today. WTF is there a whole other section of PA that EVERYONE forgot to poll until now which is housing 90% Republicans or something?
I watched Morning Joe too and this is why I say it ain't over yet.
Well their schtick this mornign was extremely biased and piss poor, IMO. they kept harping this poll and they kept harping the Gallup traditional likely voter model but they didn't say about the likely voter model that most polling sites are using since Gallup is running 2.
They also made up stupid about how Obama needed to be up 4 points (LOL) in order to win. It was really bad this morning and normally I like them but today I really wanted to puke at how ty Scarbourguh was being and how Chuck Todd just followed on a leash.
By definition that poll is an outlier...every other poll has Obama up by double digits in Penn or damn close to it.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...olls-1029.html
Yeah I realize all that but I just want the damn cross tabs so taht I can see them giving the youth vote to McCain or to under represent something or someone. Its just annoying me right now because I want to squash this god damn poll and NBC isn't linking which seems like they're just screwing with me.
Damn NBC.
Yeah but I think Joe calls it as he sees it and Chuck is also just going by what the data shows and that the polls show the race is tightening. I'll be nervous on Tuesday for sure.
I don't see the "tightening" at all. Rasmussen had it at 50-47 yesterday, that bounced back to 51-46 today. So what we're seeing is noise. I think this will end up being closer than people think though.
My final prediction:
Popular vote: Obama 52%, McCain 47%, Third Party 1%
EC: Obama: Kerry States + Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, probably Ohio. I think McCain holds on to North Carolina, Mizzou and Indiana, but any of those states turning blue would not shock me.
The polls are tightening because they still have their credibility to worry about...it doesn't matter how far off they are in the months leading up to the election, it does matter how far off they are on election day...they've been correcting for a couple of weeks now, as I said they would.
Ditto the media...a couple of these organizations have nearly put themselves into bankruptcy attempting to get Obama elected, and a few others have thrown their leigitimacy into the toilet in the name of this same cause...they are correcting themselves now as well, because hey, they can't influence elections if they're out of business and no one is watching...also called previously by whottt.
Maybe you guys should try picking someone who doesn't hate America for a change? You'd be amazed at how easily and cheaply the Presidency could be won away from the Republicans once you stop trying to elect Jane Fonda and Bill Ayers.
Oh STFU with all that "Hate America" crap. It is clear that Sarah Palin hates parts of America so that spin won't work anymore.
not entirely true, joe.
if i truly hated america, i'd definitely vote for palin.
Go ahead...kill the messenger, because that'll get Kerr..er Obama elected.
There are decent Democrats out there...you guys just refuse to give them the nomination.
It's funny...because Bush was not a moderate, he just won in 2004 because he was more moderate than Kerry....
McCain is a moderate...and Obama is less of a moderate than Kerry, do you guys truly believe the American political pendulum is going to swing that far?
Major ING Hint: We just elected Bush in 2004.
Thank you, Sean Hannittt
Yhou know it's funny...I never listened to Sean Hannity or Rush before this election regularly...I hated those two bags...I still hate Rush, talk about a blithering idiot.
Sean Hannity OTOH is now one of my favorites...I gained a whole new level of respect for him when he was the only guy truly willing to go after Obama, he was the only guy that said political correctness, there's I don't like about this guy and I am going to talk about it. If McCain/Palin win this election the first thing they need to do is go get down on their knees and kiss Sean Hannity's ass.
He's surpassed Rush and Bill O'Reilly...
My opinion...he's far and away the #1 guy Obamazombies want to see dead. That's reason enough to like him right there
haven't you noticed they already kiss his ass?
What do you mean "If," you bet hedger? According to my sig, McCain has this thing in the bag
What other democrats would have changed your vote Whottt just off the top of your head?
Not nearly enough...McCain is actually the one that needs to kiss his ass...Palin not so much, she's been going after Obama.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions