Reply With Quote
Oh and in the other thread I called GA compe ive but I'm beyond that right now - its going for Obama.
I'll give you a slight tightening in FL but its been pretty steady at this point for quite some time. Ohio on the other hand, has not tightened and has actually seen a lead that has grown a bit for Obama.
its not looking good at all for McCain right now.
Oh and in the other thread I called GA compe ive but I'm beyond that right now - its going for Obama.
So you would have picked Obama if he picked Webb, EVEN with the Palin pickup by McCain?
thats gotta be great news for the democrats in their quest for 60.
Damn, add election analysis to Manny's weather analysis!! Thanks for the updates.
Check out these figures to get a grasp on how much the black vote has increased in this election.
McNasty NOT able to guarantee AZ
Poll: McCain Tied In Arizona, Loses Senate Seat In 2010
from HuffingtonPost Full Feed by The Huffington Post News Editors
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
McCain (R) 48
Obama (D) 47
Early voters (17 percent of sample)
McCain (R) 42
Obama (D) 54
I can't believe we may actually win Arizona. And I have a bonus treat for you guys:
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?
McCain (R) 45
Napolitano (D) 53
McCain is about ready to retire anyhow.
Probably in the most absolute sense of the word.
If/When he loses, you won't see him anymore. He won't run for senate again.
Plus AZ has been infiltrated by all of the liberal Californians trying to find affordable housing. Just like TX.
Watching Morning Joe and they are making me nervous.
Ha. That's what the show is. Scarborough and Buchanan come up with every scenario where McCain can win and try to extrapolate winning scenarios from any slight change in the polls. Then, Chuck Todd comes in and tells them that their scenarios are nothing but the remotest of possibilities. Mika throws up her hands and says "I just don't know what's going to happen, but it'll be close." Eugene sits back and laughs at all of them.
McCain was up by 1 on yesterday's Zogby...I believe that's the first time McCain has been up in the Zogby poll...the previous day OBama was up by 7 or something...
Ramussen now has Penn as a 4 point state...it was 13 points 2 weeks ago.
How about New York? And I thought all polls sucked anyways?
Now for some discussion you won't see anywhere else based upon my own research.
Let's check out Washington state.
It's really best if you just click on the link to get the real picture:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Code:Washington 2,883,499 68.2% Clark Cnty html 106,053 61.6% 172,277 62.8% 10/31 King Cnty html 316,995 35.3% 899,199 62.8% 10/31 Pierce Cnty Pdf 125,330 39.5% 317,012 80.3% 10/31 Snohomish Cnty Pdf 126,709 42.6% 297,187 65.3% 10/30 Spokane Cnty Pdf 132,172 64.8% 203,886 64.3% 10/31 Whatcom Cnty html 60,165 65.7% 91,515 72.8% 10/31
Washington State goes blue because of one county, King, it's largest. This very blue county has 900,000 or so voters. Kerry won this county by 280,000 votes in 2004...in contrast Kerry won the entire state of Washington by 210,000 votes.
2004 Washington State Electoral Map:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pag.../00/index.html
Well this county has had about 200,000 fewer votes cast in it's 2008 early voting period than it did in 2004. It's the county with the largest disparity between it's 2004 early voting PCT and 2008. 200,000 fewer votes, in a state and county Kerry won by 200,000 votes.
All of the big red counties are turning out to the same degree they did in 2004...none of the big blue counties are, they all show a decline in turnout.
IMO, these are good signs for McCain and bad signs for Obama.
But Obama dominated the caucus you say?
Yeah...but he didn't dominate the Primary...he took 354k voters compared to to 315k for Hillary....that's more than enough disenfranchised voters to give this state to McCain...who took 250k in the Republican primary inspite of strong turnouts for Huckabee and Paul.
Last edited by whottt; 11-01-2008 at 10:04 AM.
You got any links to NY's early voting? Do they even have it? I am more than willing to look at it if you care to provide the info
And I thought all polls sucked anyways?
They do...they just suck less the closer we get to the election...they do have their credibility to worry about after all.
I said I wasn't going to pay any attention to them when they were showing results all over the place, and some results than I knew were jokes...like Obama being up by 10% in West Virginia. I said I'd start paying more attention to thm when they started settling down and regaining their grip on reality.
10 points in West Virginia?
Get ing serious...I'd sooner believe Obama was up by 10% for Grand Dragon of the KKK than I'd believe he was up by 10 in WVA.
IMO, you guys need to be ting when Rasmussen is showing Obama only up by 4 in PA...Rasmussen weights to a sickening degree in favor of Dems...and Penn is Hillary country.
Plus just about every Democrat in the United States has on PA in this election.
So your name is Dr. Michael McDonald?
So Wash state goes red. Another whottt prediction!
Whottt - google is your friend. Your research ing sucks dude. I mean its so easy to
refute you it should be criminal.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...count01m0.html
Early voting or Absentee voting? How much of the county votes by mail? When will those ballots be counted?
Has your research factored in Massive Vote Fraud?
As a professional mathematician I have to say that if 08 is an honest election, and at this point that's a big IF, then McCain doesn't have a chance of winning...
Just like Hillary Clinton before him, John McCain is learning the harsh reality that is Barack Obama. The race could be 50-50 nationally, and it wouldn't matter. Obama is playing chess, not checkers. McCain has to win every single toss up state, and he'll still come up short.
It is now mathematically impossible for Obama to lose this election. The probability of the polls being so wrong is so incredibly small that the only explanation for a McCain win on Tuesday will be rigged voting machines, period.
It's over. Get out and vote, but it's over.
CNN Electoral Map Calculator
If the GOP has this vaunted ability to steal elections, why did they get thumped so bad in the 06 midterms?
No doubt the GOP has their voter suppression tactics that they'll employ, but the only way Obama loses is if the pollster samples are weighted way too heavily in favor of the Democrats.
Oh, they tried to steal seats in 06, but dumb-ass Rove underestimated the turnout for a non-Presidential year election....If the GOP has this vaunted ability to steal elections, why did they get thumped so bad in the 06 midterms?
No doubt the GOP has their voter suppression tactics that they'll employ, but the only way Obama loses is if the pollster samples are weighted way too heavily in favor of the Democrats.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
