Hollinger's PER Diem: Nov. 10, 2008
Parker's loss is even more devastating to the Spurs than Smith's absence is to the Hawks. The French speedster was leading the league in PER as he tried to keep the Spurs afloat during an early-season rough patch, one that suddenly looks a whole lot rougher now that he'll be out for about 15 games.
In his absence, San Antonio has two problems. The first is that the Spurs are losing their leading scorer and have little offense in reserve. Manu Ginobili isn't slated to return until mid-December -- around the same time Parker is supposed to return -- and San Antonio's secondary offensive players are mostly spot-up role players unable to create offense for themselves. That means we'll be seeing a steady diet of Tim Duncan, obviously, and we shouldn't be surprised if he plays closer to 40 minutes a game than his usual 30-32 over the next month.
However, there's a second problem that I mentioned last week. For reasons that escape me, the Spurs can't guard anybody -- they're last in defensive efficiency, and even before Parker went out Friday they were losing at home by 14 to a middling Heat team. One exec I talked to pointed out that the Spurs now play small for most of the game, where in the past it was a rarity, and that's changed their ability to dominate at the defensive end. Fair enough, but by any measure this is a staggering decline -- San Antonio was third in defensive efficiency a year ago, and this was about the last team you'd expect to suddenly lose its focus.
In the meantime, one has to wonder how much ground the Spurs will have to make up once Parker and Ginobili return. If we presume they'll each miss 14 games and return for the Dec. 9 game in Dallas, it's vital for the Spurs to scratch out a few wins since they're already in a hole at 1-4. Given that the upcoming schedule includes several toughies (two each against Denver and Houston, one each against Utah and Detroit), it's entirely possible the Spurs could be something like 6-13 when Parker returns. If so, San Antonio will need to play quite well over the final three-quarters of the season just to make its customary playoff trip.
It's a testament to San Antonio's success during the past decade that not one exec I talked to the past few days would even consider the idea of this team's failing. But it's fair to say that, as much as you can conclude anything from five games, you can conclude that this team might be in some serious trouble.
I'll keep saying this, but if I were rooting for a long-term end to the San Antonio Spurs, the last thing I'd want would be for this team to fail in 2008-09. If I wanted to see less and less of the Spurs, a failure in 2008-09 would be brutal, since it would give the Spurs the chance to get a lottery-level talent and replenish the well a bit.
That exec doesn't know what he's talking about. The Spurs are playing big as much or even more than they have in recent years.One exec I talked to pointed out that the Spurs now play small for most of the game, where in the past it was a rarity, and that's changed their ability to dominate at the defensive end.
The problem is the bigs outside of Tim have been horrible. The combination of Thomas, Oberto and Bonner literally can't play any worse than they are playing right now. Add in Bowen not playing up to his usual level and Duncan not playing with defensive intensity and you have a recipe for why the Spurs are the worst defensive team in the league right now.
Scoring doesn't seem to be as big a problem to them as years past, it's just the mysterious drop in defensive intensity.
Perimeter defense was porous, interior defense was horrendous, and rebounding was non-existant. Pop will have to squeeze much more effort out of every member of the team, including Duncan and Parker, for the Spurs to turn this around.
I'd expect them to blow their lottery pick, like they do most other picks they have, too.
A 2009 lottery pick would interfere with the plan to have salary off the books, right?
Yeah, they'd probably use it to get a salary off the books. Sheesh.
I think it's how you interpret what he's saying. The Spurs are undersized. They may not be playing small-ball, but they're definitely undersized.
I assume he means Bonner at center.
A Duncan and Bonner front court isn't small. 6-foot-11 and 6-foot-10 is bigger than most. Obviously the exec was trying to say the Spurs have used small ball lineups more than they have in the past, which is certainly not true.
15 games...
Matt Bonner plays more like a 5'10" player.
Matt Bonner plays like a random who's needed to fill out a pick up game with actual players. He plays like that random guy who really plays some other sport but can fill in. But everyone knows he sucks but he's needed.
I still don't believe it...15 games...
Maybe he means that they're playing small because well...they are.
Let's give our lack of defensive strategy/intensity/focus to CIA pop.....hopefully
It's a nightmare... we are going to wake upI still don't believe it...
Hollinger on man landing on Mars: "Far away"
I might be incorrect but I thought the Spurs didn't have a first-round pick this year? Even if they tank season, they won't have a lottery pick.
The pick they gave up for KT was lottery protected. If you care about the pick, the worst case is if the Spurs finish 8th in the west. I'd rather make the playoffs and lose the pick.
And the same could be said about tony parker. Parker scores more points in the paint then most bigs ever do in the NBA. This last game I saw timmy at the arc passing the ball downlow to parker for a layup.Thats not the way to get it done. But Ill take the points anyday.
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