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FYI - After today's beatdown of the Pistons in Detroit, we're now 12-6.
http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/...nksgiving.html
Thanksgiving weekend has been fantastic. The eating, the family, all those things we all count on ... I'm loving it.
But also, as a fan of the Portland Trail Blazers, it has also been a little bit like Christmas.
Why? Yes they have won nicely at home.
But more importantly ... Have you seen John Hollinger's power rankings?
(I have been aware of this for several days, but have not wanted to make a fuss out of it ... for fear it would later prove meaningless. But now it has been hanging around for a while, and I can't stay quiet.)
Not to oversimplify things. But more or less the current state of events -- from a supercomputer programmed by one of the savviest experts in the game today -- is that all of the many teams of the NBA are spread across a vast array of quality. The exceptionally crappy Thunder are off the deep end of the charts, but ignoring that, every single team in the NBA has a Hollinger Power Ranking that is arrayed somewhere between 90 and 103 on the Hollinger scale.
The ranking is built on strength of schedule, margin of victory, and various other factors that have proven, over time, to matter.
Ignore Hollinger at your peril.
In any case, what I haven't told you is that not all the teams are either OKC or between 90 and 103 on the scale. There are actually four super teams that co-exist in the ether above the spectrum of normalcy. They're all over 108.
And they matter. Between them, these four teams hog a 90.7% likelihood of winning this year's le in an extrapolation of the power rankings.
Who are the NBA's four elite teams, based on Hollinger's formulas and the early returns? With all the normal early season provisos, and in order, they are: the Los Angeles Lakers (36.8% chance of winning the le), the Cleveland Cavaliers (30%), the Boston Celtics (13%), and ... my Portland Trail Blazers (10.9%).
By any conventional measure, the Blazers are somewhere between so-so and pretty good. They're 11-6 just like Houston, Phoenix, and Denver. They're a half game ahead of Atlanta, about which I'm sure you are lukewarm. But Hollinger's computer knows Portland has played all kinds of tough teams, and they have had some big-time blowouts (thank you Miami and Chicago!) as well as quality wins against the likes of New Orleans, San Antonio, and Houston.
Portland is loaded down with so many weapons that many nights they can make big mistakes and still win.
Look, I'm not getting ahead of myself here. I realize that Portland still has flaws, and will not be winning a le this year.
But I'm also starting to realize that Portland's much-anticipated entry into the NBA's elite may be arriving well ahead of schedule. It couldn't be more exciting. As a fan who has been on the outside looking in for a decade and a half, it's a real thrill to be part of the Big Boy NBA conversation. Especially with a roster that features heavy minutes from three rookies (Rookie of the Year candidates Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez, as well as starter Nicolas Batum) and is built for three years from now.
Where does that leave us? With a lot to look forward to (if by "we" we mean "Portland fans"). Virtually every Blazer can be expected to get better over the course of the next two or three years. And yet, even now in its infancy this Portland roster is a profound threat to win every game it plays. It's a nice situation.
Unless, of course, you find yourself in the peculiar position of being both a national NBA blogger with a commitment to fairness and a dyed-in-the-wool Blazer fan. I have long feared the day when by Blazer fandom could cause profound and persisent objectivity problems for my NBA coverage.
That time is coming.
Please, bear with me.
FYI - After today's beatdown of the Pistons in Detroit, we're now 12-6.
you wish
Looks like my wish has been granted!
Weren't the Blazers really good to start the season last year, too? They had a big long winning streak and ended up at .500, right?
Depends on elite definition. I wouldn't say so, not this year atleast. maybe in 1-2 years.
But I must say, it APPEARS the Blazers could be capable of getting a T4 seed. At beginning of year I though they would be a 7 or 8 seed at best.
They're now up there with the Minnesota Timberwolves with that pounding of the Pistons at the Palace. Except the Timberwolves never let the Pistons make even a little comeback in their blowout.
No Portland is not elite. The rest of the West is just dealing with injuries at the moment. At around March/April, these joke teams that have jumped ahead of the injured teams in the West will be #6-8 seeds.
I agree that the Blazers are in the Western Elite.
You could see it coming since last year.
One of my favorite teams to watch but they are not contenders.
Blazers playing great team basketball.. oden looked great today also btw.. lots of learning left in this season for the team though. a big win confidence wise. comming back above .500 on this road trip would be awesome. however i see knicks giving blazers some trouble for some odd reason. martells comeback will cause some trouble though and a bit of a log jam with batums playing great...
damn just realised the pistons have dropped 8 of the last 11 to the blazers at home.
We're a threat to win the le this year. There isn't any doubt in my mind at all about that. We have all the pieces that make up a great team. The only thing we lack is experience which is over-rated, imo.
This is WHY they won't win the championship. They haven't experienced the Playoff losing that is required to become a Champion. Every championship team needs some losers to become a Champion.
They have all the talent needed, they just need to lose a couple times in the Playoffs to become contenders.
yea being experienced doesnt mean everything when the other team has a stronger will, pistons.. rockets.... spurs.. all pretty experienced if you ask me spurscan use the excuse card i guess being that they probably will with ginobli being injured that game.
I disagree. If you are the better team you win. There's no need to experience playoff failure. All they have to do is win.
See game seven between the Spurs and Hornets last year for an example of experience helping one team.
oden also leading the blazers in double doubles this year in his limited playing time.
our bench sucked balls this game. but pistons starters did also so i guess we should be greatful
There is no team that has amassed the amount of talent that the Blazers have. Nobody. And that includes the Lakers and Celtics. The scary thing is that we're just getting better and better.
I don't know of any Championship team that hasn't had Playoff failures.
Last year's Celtics was probably the biggest collection of big-time losers ever on one team. Just go back through the years and you'll see the losers on every Championship team.
This isn't the NFL where ANY team can win in any given year. It's the 7 game format that weeds out the one-hit wonders.
Just be glad the Blazers are fun to watch, a great bunch of guys, gaining experience, getting better and no longer called the JailBlazers. You should be happy that they'll probably lose in the first round, it's a great starting point. They'll be losers before they're winners, and that's not a shameful thing at all.
That "experience" doesn't appear to be helping the Hornets too much this year.
No.
how many other experienced players other than kobe and fish last year when going against the spurs? i think san antonio had more experience and it didnt show, lakers wiped them up and down the floor. like boston did to the lakers who had less finals experience then kobe and fish.... the better team wins. the team who wants it more gets it
Our championship in 77 was won by a team that had never been in the playoffs before. I can see the same thing happening again.
Your Mom is pretty talented from what I hear.
77 blazers are still the youngest team to ever win the championship
You got us on opening night. I'm looking forward to a return match.Are you insane??? The Lakers are more talented at every position except for that three position, and we proved that on opening day by bullying your little team. Since you were so excited to post Hollingers take on how good your team is, why dont you look at who is at the top of that list... thats right
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