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  1. #451
    Homer 2centsworth's Avatar
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    The thread is a be th. Jeez. Can't I say something about just one of DarrinS's persistent themes?

    He keeps posting daily temperatures as if that meant something. I'd like him to explain why. If he already explained it, I forgot and I'm too lazy to check, ok?

    If you know the answer, please share it with me, 2cents.

    Why be content to raise your leg on the conversation, when you can correct it?
    how about the 2 posts immediately preceding the one you pointed out. Seemed to me all three fit together in his argument.

  2. #452
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    how about the 2 posts immediately preceding the one you pointed out. Seemed to me all three fit together in his argument.
    As a joke, right? I only sort of understand what they're talking about to begin with.

    DarrinS asks RG for "quan ative" information, then goads him by posting US temperatures? Something like that?

  3. #453
    Homer 2centsworth's Avatar
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    As a joke, right? I only sort of understand what they're talking about to begin with.

    DarrinS asks RG for "quan ative" information, then goads him by posting US temperatures? Something like that?
    Well, CO2 was rising between 1940 and 1970, so why did the average temperature decline during that period?



    By the way, the hottest year in history was 1934, not 1998 (after the "hockey stick" was thoroughly debunked and NASA corrected their data). You'll probably remember the hockey stick graph because it has been featured so prominantly in IPCC reports as well as the giant graph in Al Gore's science fiction thriller.
    Can you give me some QUAN ATIVE figures on this so-called consensus? If you REALLY look into it, you'll be surprised.
    then he followed those up with the weather map. Looks like he's saying more than it's cold today so GW doesn't exist.

  4. #454
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    then he followed those up with the weather map. Looks like he's saying more than it's cold today so GW doesn't exist.
    I couldn't believe he would be saying something that dumb, so I ruled it out to start with. Are you sure?

  5. #455
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    I couldn't believe he would be saying something that dumb, so I ruled it out to start with. Are you sure?

    Showing the map was a joke.


    A bigger joke is telling people that a trace gas that makes up less than 4 one-hundredths of one percent of our atmosphere will push us past some ficticious "tipping points" that will flood our costal cities.

    Oh, and by the way, humans only contribute about 3 percent to that 0.04 percent in our atmosphere.

    If we'd signed Kyoto, at a mere cost of 300 billion PER YEAR, maybe we could save humanity.

  6. #456
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    .If we'd signed Kyoto, at a mere cost of 300 billion PER YEAR, maybe we could save humanity.
    Bargain basement.

    Any chance it's gonna be accidentally beneficial in some way?

  7. #457
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Bargain basement.

    Any chance it's gonna be accidentally beneficial in some way?
    The answer to that question is yes, and Darrin is probably honest enough to grudgingly admit that, but WC is not.

    Now ask him or WC to provide a source and reasoning for the cost that he picked, and ask him to explain how that cost was derived.

    If he or WC, can't then they are as guilty as sucking up something without being skeptical as they say the "liberals" are.

    I might not have the time to piss around with learning enough about climate science, but cost analysis is another matter.

  8. #458
    Homer 2centsworth's Avatar
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    Showing the map was a joke.


    A bigger joke is telling people that a trace gas that makes up less than 4 one-hundredths of one percent of our atmosphere will push us past some ficticious "tipping points" that will flood our costal cities.

    Oh, and by the way, humans only contribute about 3 percent to that 0.04 percent in our atmosphere.

    If we'd signed Kyoto, at a mere cost of 300 billion PER YEAR, maybe we could save humanity.
    i got the joke. winehole is just lost.

  9. #459
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    i got the joke. winehole is just lost.
    Perhaps my guide led me somewhat further astray. But yes, I'm lost.

  10. #460
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Looks like a lot of Americans are scared less of Global Warming.

    http://people-press.org/report/485/e...olicy-priority





    They list lobbyists as a higher priority.

  11. #461
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    They list lobbyists as a higher priority.
    Is that so unrealistic?

  12. #462
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    James Hansen's former NASA supervisor says that Hansen embarrassed NASA.



    Subject: Climate models are useless

    Marc, First, I sent several e-mails to you with an error in the address and they have been returned to me. So I’m resending them in one combined e-mail.

    Yes, one could say that I was, in effect, Hansen’s supervisor because I had to justify his funding, allocate his resources, and evaluate his results. I did not have the authority to give him his annual performance evaluation. He was never muzzled even though he violated NASA’s official agency position on climate forecasting (i.e., we did not know enough to forecast climate change or mankind’s effect on it). He thus embarrassed NASA by coming out with his claims of global warming in 1988 in his testimony before Congress.

    My own belief concerning anthropogenic climate change is that the models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit. Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy.

    With best wishes, John


    Look at the bio of this flat-Earther:



    Subject: Re: Nice seeing you

    Marc, Indeed, it was a pleasure to see you again. I appreciate the opportunity to add my name to those who disagree that Global Warming is man made. A brief bio follows. Use as much or as little of it as you wish.

    John S. Theon Education: B.S. Aero. Engr. (1953-57); Aerodynamicist, Douglas Aircraft Co. (1957-58); As USAF Reserve Officer (1958-60),B.S. Meteorology (1959); Served as Weather Officer 1959-60; M.S, Meteorology (1960-62); NASA Research Scientist, Goddard Space Flight Ctr. (1962-74); Head Meteorology Branch, GSFC (1974-76); Asst. Chief, Lab. for Atmos. Sciences, GSFC (1977-78); Program Scientist, NASA Global Weather Research Program, NASA Hq. (1978-82); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics & Radiation Branch NASA Hq., (1982-91); Ph.D., Engr. Science & Mech.: course of study and dissertation in atmos. science (1983-85); Chief, Atmospheric Dynamics, Radiation, & Hydrology Branch, NASA Hq. (1991-93); Chief, Climate Processes Research Program, NASA Hq. (1993-94); Senior Scientist, Mission to Planet Earth Office, NASA Hq. (1994-95); Science Consultant, Ins ute for Global Environmental Strategies (1995-99); Science Consultant Orbital Sciences Corp. (1996-97) and NASA Jet Propulsion Lab., (1997-99).

    As Chief of several NASA Hq. Programs (1982-94), an SES position, I was responsible for all weather and climate research in the entire agency, including the research work by James Hansen, Roy Spencer, Joanne Simpson, and several hundred other scientists at NASA field centers, in academia, and in the private sector who worked on climate research. This required a thorough understanding of the state of the science. I have kept up with climate science since retiring by reading books and journal articles. I hope that this is helpful.

    Best wishes, John

  13. #463
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Is that so unrealistic?

    It actually should be a higher priority because lobbyists are real.

  14. #464
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    It actually should be a higher priority because lobbyists are real.
    Yeah. There's that.

  15. #465
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    The answer to that question is yes, and Darrin is probably honest enough to grudgingly admit that, but WC is not.

    Now ask him or WC to provide a source and reasoning for the cost that he picked, and ask him to explain how that cost was derived.

    If he or WC, can't then they are as guilty as sucking up something without being skeptical as they say the "liberals" are.

    I might not have the time to piss around with learning enough about climate science, but cost analysis is another matter.
    Never did get an answer.

    Funny how some people will piss and moan about other people taking things at face value, and when you point out their own cool-aid, they put their fingers in their ears and ignore you.

  16. #466
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Never did get an answer.

    Funny how some people will piss and moan about other people taking things at face value, and when you point out their own cool-aid, they put their fingers in their ears and ignore you.

    To believe in AGW, you have to believe the following are true:


    1. The global temperature of the 1990's to present is remarkable and unprecedented.

    2. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are at unprecedented levels in history and are largely because of human activity.

    3. There is a direct causal relationship between CO2 and temperature, i.e. increased CO2 results in an increased temperature.


    If any of these are not true, then one would have to be skeptical of AGW. If ALL are untrue, then you'd have to be VERY skeptical of AGW.

  17. #467
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    By the way, CO2 concentration is currently at 383 parts per million. If the atmosphere was a gallon, then the total C02 would be about 0.29 teaspoons. The amount of C02 produced by human activity is about 3% of that, or 0.008 teaspoons.

    Scary stuff

  18. #468
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    "But, if we don't spend the 20 gazillion dollars and increase controls over the populace...then we could all die.

    Will you risk death...will ya?

    Spend the money...and if we're wrong. Your only broke and in economic slavery. If we're right, your alive...and broke, and in economic slavery.

    But, your alive...right?"

    Fear is the biggest motivator, and best tool in any politician's or activist's pocket. Obama knows this well.

    Oh well, I still have several can's of "The dry look" hair spray I've been hoarding since the 70's when they banned it cuz of the hole in the sky. When nobody's looking, I use 'em, then spray old freon cannister's in the backyard. Cools things off, and decreases the humidity so if I go outside, my hair still looks damn good.

    Lemme know how that hole is doing. I don't wanna kill anyone y'know.

    I just wanna be nice and cool...and have damned good looking hair.

  19. #469
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    To believe in AGW, you have to believe the following are true:


    1. The global temperature of the 1990's to present is remarkable and unprecedented.
    Incorrect. This is a distortion of the science.

    2. Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are at unprecedented levels in history and are largely because of human activity.
    Incorrect. This is a distortion of the science.

    3. There is a direct causal relationship between CO2 and temperature, i.e. increased CO2 results in an increased temperature.
    Correct. You got one out of three right. If you don't understand the theory you are supposed to be skeptical of, it makes it kind of hard to sift through the evidence, doesn't it?


    If any of these are not true, then one would have to be skeptical of AGW. If ALL are untrue, then you'd have to be VERY skeptical of AGW.[/QUOTE]

  20. #470
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    By the way, CO2 concentration is currently at 383 parts per million. If the atmosphere was a gallon, then the total C02 would be about 0.29 teaspoons. The amount of C02 produced by human activity is about 3% of that, or 0.008 teaspoons.

    Scary stuff
    Also incorrect.

    Cite a source for this.

  21. #471
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If we'd signed Kyoto, at a mere cost of 300 billion PER YEAR, maybe we could save humanity.
    Please cite a source for this cost.

  22. #472
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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  23. #473
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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  24. #474
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Incorrect. This is a distortion of the science.
    Yes, Mann's hockey stick graph that filtered out the medieval warming period and turns random white noise into "hockey sticks" is a distortion of science. This has been completely discredited and should be a complete embarassement to the IPCC and Al Gore.


    Correct. You got one out of three right. If you don't understand the theory you are supposed to be skeptical of, it makes it kind of hard to sift through the evidence, doesn't it?
    I agree there is a relationship. The ice core record has shown that when temperatures have risen, CO2 levels have FOLLOWED. It's the exact opposite relationship than the one put forward by AGW alarmists.

  25. #475
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    By the way, CO2 concentration is currently at 383 parts per million. If the atmosphere was a gallon, then the total C02 would be about 0.29 teaspoons. The amount of C02 produced by human activity is about 3% of that, or 0.008 teaspoons.
    Incorrect. Source?
    Given source does not outline the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere produced by human activity.

    Because the decay curve depends on the model used and the assumptions incorporated therein, it is difficult to specify an exact atmospheric lifetime for CO2. Accepted values range around 100 years.
    It can be inferred from the data however,:

    Pre-1750 tropospheric concentration 283 ppm
    Current tropospheric concentration 383.97 ppm

    Given that we don't know exactly how much of that 100ppm increase is from natural and how much is from man-made activity from the given source, you can't really justify the statement that only 3% of the current concentration is from man-made sources.

    The rate of change of concentration is unprecedented in the historical record however, and given that we haven't seen any sustained series of massive volcanological events in the last 100 years that might account for such an increase it is a reasonable assumption that a pretty high percentage of that 100ppm increase is due to burning of fossil fuels in the last 100 years.

    100ppm being roughly 25% of the current concentration in the atmosphere. If only 50% of that increase was due to human action, then this would imply that roughly 12% of current concentration is due to humankind's actions.

    I have no real idea what the exact % is, but it would seem that 3% is probably a low-ball estimate, and given our rather recent massive e in CO2 emissions in the last 25 years, I would guess that if we are indeed responsible for most of this increase, that we will see concentrations continue to climb markedly.

    All of this depends on the ability of the planet to absorb CO2 and the complex, but little understood mechanisms for this, of course.

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