will we have a one-player class in 2009 with rickey henderson getting what he always wanted -- the spotlight to himself? (because rickey's getting in no matter what this year) or will the voters send along a marginal candidate or two to make rickey less of a spectacle?
Here are the 2009 candidates:
• harold baines
• jay bell
• bert blyleven
• david cone
• andre dawson
• ron gant
• mark grace
• rickey henderson
• tommy john
• don mattingly
• mark mcgwire
• jack morris
• dale murphy
• jesse orosco
• dave parker
• dan plesac
• tim raines
• jim rice
• lee smith
• alan trammell
• greg vaughn
• mo vaughn
• matt williams
i think there are several on that list who have no business being in a conversation about the hall of fame and, i think, no chance of even getting the 5% to remain on the ballot into next year -- jay bell, ron gant, and dan plesac. On that basis, too, i wouldn't vote for either vaughn or for matt williams, but i don't have a vote and i could see where some might vote for those guys just to keep them around for another year or two.
Of those who were eligible last year, rice came the closest to enshrinement:
Gossage, rich -- 85.8%
rice, jim -- 72.2%
dawson, andre -- 65.9%
blyleven, bert -- 61.9%
smith, lee -- 43.3%
morris, jack -- 42.9%
john, tommy -- 29.1%
raines, tim -- 24.3%
mcgwire, mark -- 23.6%
trammell, alan -- 18.2%
concepcion, dave -- 16.2%
mattingly, don -- 15.8%
parker, dave -- 15.1%
murphy, dale -- 13.8%
baines, harold -- 5.2%
rice would seem the most likely candidate to join henderson, both because he was close to joining gossage in 2008 and because this appears to be his last year of eligibility. Dawson strikes me as being quite a bit like rice.
I still think that precedent makes blyleven a worthy candidate and his voting totals seem to get closer and closer to 75%, but i'm not sure he'll get enough love this time to get in, either.
Lee smith retired as the all-time saves leader and is still 3rd on that list, but saves strike me as a pretty absurd way to define greatness. Still, if gossage is in, smith has a decent argument. He's a 7-time all-star who lead his league in saves on 4 different occasions while finishing in the top 5 in cy young voting three times.
Mcgwire is, well, mcgwire.
So, who gets in with rickey?