Federal Obligations Exceed World's GDP

[NFGIII]

Cycle of Democracy

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover they can vote themselves largess from the public treasury.

"From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising them the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years. These nations have progressed through this sequence:

"From bondage to spiritual faith;

from spiritual faith to great courage;

from courage to liberty;

from liberty to abundance;

from abundance to selfishness;
from selfishness to apathy;
from apathy to dependence;
from dependency back again into bondage."

Dr. Alexander Tytler, a Scot professor, wrote a scholarly tome, from which this concept comes, called "The Athenian Republic" which was published shortly before the thirteen American colonies gained independence from Britain.

Since we have touched on the issue of our country's perception and lifestyle I thought the above might be appropriate. My apologies if it has been posted before and discussed.

So where are we in this? Most likely either from selfishness to apathy or apathy to dependence. I believe that we are in the latter. Though I see many who are concerned and vocal about our present situation I really don't see the grass roots movements that would signal that the people are fed up. Many I talk to are resigned in their minds to the fact that they feel that they can't do anything about it and are too busy just making a living leaving little time to participate. I know that Perot and Nadar tried to do something but both failed. If anything Perot could be credited with siphoning off the Repubilican vote that helped Clinton take the White House, though there have been articles claiiming that he didn't have that effect.

[MannyIsGod]

DR, you can sit there and romanticize preparing the people for rapid change but the people don't want to hear that. I don't nessecarily share your doomsday pessimism either on that front, but if someone sits there and tries to tell the people to drastically change their lifestyles and financial way of thiking, they're NOT GOING TO BE IN POWER.

Politics is playing a huge role in this crisis and you can sit there and try to remove it and act like it shouldn't be a factor all you want but the fact of the matter is that its a hugely important factor. You can only do so much as the political will allows and trying to control that political will is the hardest part of running this contry at the moment.

[101A]

The US GDP is undergoing a contraction because at the root of things, we as a society have spent more than we have and thats coming back into balance. We've been racking up a balance and now after years of GOP led deficits

The GOP has controlled the govt. for exactly SIX of the past SIXTY years - and yet you lay this at their feet???

Sucker.

[MannyIsGod]

Me and DarkReign have a different plan, or didn't you notice?

We tell the truth, face the music and take our lumps. We earned it.

How hard is that?

Not going to happen. Its extremely hard. If it was that easy then why didn't Ron Paul have a chance in of being elected? Thats not the direction the people want to take.

[Winehole23]

Winehole, I generally believe you're one of the smarter and more educated posters in here but you have a strange gnack for missing nuance bud. My whole point was about how foolish AHF's stance is. I agree whole heartdly with the bank nationalization (see how Europe handled this) but you have to remember what happend on the Obama campaign trail and how much politics is playing into how this iss being worked out.

You think nationalization (let's just call it receivership, ok?) plays into the hands of "the other side", but the tide may be turning. Lindsay Graham is willing to say he won't rule out bank nationalization on TV.

Thats another reason the enablers like AHF really ing piss me off. Their stupidity and ignorance of what is actually happening is what enables the GOP to continue to us.

Is the GOP in power, or are the Dems large and in charge? Didn't they just pass a record stimulus in record time? Once Franken is seated, the Dems only need one GOP Senator for anything they want. You act like the GOP still controls something. Their approval rating is about 20%. You should encourage them to keep doing what they're doing IMO.

[Winehole23]

Not going to happen. Its extremely hard. If it was that easy then why didn't Ron Paul have a chance in of being elected? Thats not the direction the people want to take.

No, it isn't. It's the direction our economy is taking us, like it or not.

[MannyIsGod]

In the end your observation about the Dems being incontrol is correct. But not all Dems vote the same way. Blue Dogs aren't going to just up and vote the way Nancy Pelosi is going to vote. Simply saying the Dems control both houses is simplification beyond belief. Minorities in the Senate have power and they wield it.

Not to mention Obama campaigned on working in a bipartisan manner. I think they''ve gotten past that after the way the GOP acted during this first passage, but that doesn't mean they can simply do whatever and pay no political price. There is always a measure of political capital to be had or used.

[Winehole23]

We are almost there people. Once we cross that line where more than 50% of the people are net users of the government, the heart of this nation is dead!

that. You seem to think that power eliminates culture. You're wrong.

[DarkReign]

DR, you can sit there and romanticize preparing the people for rapid change but the people don't want to hear that.

Too bad. Hear it now, place your objections or forever hold your peace.

I don't nessecarily share your doomsday pessimism either on that front, but if someone sits there and tries to tell the people to drastically change their lifestyles and financial way of thiking, they're NOT GOING TO BE IN POWER.

Which is exactly why we as a country will fail in this endeavor. Our leadership is more concerned with maintaining power (with some weird rationalization that in order to complete our recovery, we must maintain power over X amount of time) than actually wielding it effectively.

Politics is playing a huge role in this crisis and you can sit there and try to remove it and act like it shouldn't be a factor all you want but the fact of the matter is that its a hugely important factor. You can only do so much as the political will allows and trying to control that political will is the hardest part of running this contry at the moment.

Another indictment on our country being so well put. Obama/Democrats (really, it could be the Green party for all this matters) want to maintain political power and will do so first, then seek economic recovery second.

If you cant understand why I am pissed, then you never will. Politics should not be playing a part in any of this. This crisis is the difference between prosperity and poverty for an entire nation and I am more than a little surprised that you would accept so easily the reality of politics being more important than both and being slightly miffed that I dont share that sentiment.

If true, that political power/will is still the number one factor in this crisis, then this tells me Obama is no better than Bush (or any other politician more concerned with maintaining power than solving problems). A real leader...a great leader of all time would sacrifice himself for the welfare of his country. If Obama were different, than he would have no objections to political suicide if it benefitted the country longterm, history books would frown on him for a moment in time, but he'd be regarded with his idol Lincoln in less than 20 years.

Also, if what you say is truth, Manny, that political power/will is the single-most important aspect of running a government in crisis, then our well-being was lost a loooooong time ago. The fact that we are even discussing this aspect of a financial meltdown should be a ing crime.

Political power and will have zero to do with the obvious solutions we have to the problem. Those two terms only benefit the powerful in their endeavors to maintain control of leadership in a crisis, not their respective cons uencies. What does it say about our country, its health and well-being, when our elected leadership's biggest job in a financial meltdown is power consolidation?

Thats pathetic. Thru and thru. Maybe youre right, if so, we are all totally ed anyway and Obama is no different than any of his predecessors of the past 30 years. If true, hes just another puppet, another stooge with a curious mind and no will of his own.

I hope I am wrong. But the maintenance of power having precendence over our financial breakdown is appalling. Disgusting and downright treasonous.

If our leadership was different in any way, shape or form, our en lement programs would be swept clean off the books starting....now and government's role would be reduced drastically overnight. People would die, things would get bad before they got worse, but our country would stay solvent and we would have time to enact laws and regulations that would stave off this sort of crisis from ever happening again.

All I hear is "returning to status quo". Status Quo ing sucked and is responsible for getting us all into this mess in the first place. Status Quo can kiss my ass and so can its supporters. There needs to be "real change", not this half-ass attempt at "status quo" with ineffective stimulus packages with many more to come.

A real leader, a true great leader of all time would say, in no uncertain terms "Our hegemony has caught up to us. It may not be your fault individually and you may have not even been a beneficiary of said hegemony, but it has you in its trap nonethless."

Then lay down the real ing plan of economin attack that truly addresses the underlying issues of our financial instability. Namely, en lement programs and military spending. But since en lement programs are a mechanism to influence voters, and since, as you say, maintaining power is job numero uno in this climate, it will never happen.

Which makes Obama, his administration and this Congress no different than any other inept, ineffectual, banana republic government the world has seen come and go over time.

I realize my expectations are high and that my gloom and doom are more negative than most. I see that and to be honest, I could see past those differences in opinion if I seen some legislation with real teeth. At least then I could say "wow, he really cut the federal government's yearly payables by a bunch. Maybe he is on to something..."

Instead, all I see is more ing payables. I realize government isnt a business, but its financial statement damn well should be run like one. Obama hasnt cut one damn thing, yet he is increasing exponentially.

Thats ludicrous. And I cant believe someone would disagree with that right now. This is difficult.

[Winehole23]

I don't like to call this politics "Keynesian". They should be called neo-Keynesian or socialist. JMK wasn't crazy, when he proposed what people now call Keynesian remedies things were hugely different: the federal obligations were nowhere close to exceed the world GPD. What Keynes advocated the government to do in an extremely serious depression is more than the government does now during economic expansion periods.

This point is well taken, but rather than just calling it socialism I'd stress the convergence with Europe and call it social democracy.

Democratic politicians (meaning politicians who have to win democratic elections) will never ever put the interests of the unborns ahead of those of their electorate. The America republic is corrutped by the excess of democracy. That's the first thing, in the ins ucional realm, you should fix.

Intriguing. Expedience is king, so long term planning loses out to the short end payoff.

Any suggestions?

[DarkReign]

Intriguing. Expedience is king, so long term planning loses out to the short end payoff.

Any suggestions?

You know, I am one of the first people to bust on others for the proverbial "Think of the CHILDREN!" types who need GPS on their kids and helmets when they ride bikes and such.

But this is the first time in my life I can honestly say it with a straight face. I dont even have any (nor do I want to bring them in this ing blackhole of a world either), but what our government is and what it does is constantly at the expense of future generations.

They never once would allow the market to correct itself because that would mean loss in "standard of living", which means no votes come election time.

Theyre not leaders. Theyre politicians, lawyers with an agenda and a power trip.

What the is so bad with the idea of educating Americans about necessary market corrections and conditions? Why is it so unbelievable for some to understand that we are adults and we can handle the truth.

I am not a ing child and cannot stand it when spoken to like one, no matter who is doing the talking.

[MannyIsGod]

DR, political power/will is what it is. Trying to make it an externality in a democracy is impossible. I see a lot of ing over the system of government in your post but I'm not aware of a democracy which doesn't function in this way. Don't take this the wrong way, but your line of thinking has tended to pave the road torwards other forms of government in the past including facism. You can't seprate politics from national leadership becaustion national leadership is a political function.

[MannyIsGod]

The first exercise in all governing is maintaining power DR. Sure, government officials can go against the grain in the name of leadership but when thats done overly so you end up with 8 years like we just had so I'm not sure if your overly romanticising of that is appropriate.

Run an election campaign and see how hard it is to get elected. Take note of how many different issues and point of views you have to balance and acknowledge. Take note of how difficult it is to affect the process from the outside. You either get into power and make compromises in order to change things from the inside or you remain an idealist on the outside and exert limited and expensive influence on the system.

[Winehole23]

Which is exactly why we as a country will fail in this endeavor. Our leadership is more concerned with maintaining power (with some weird rationalization that in order to complete our recovery, we must maintain power over X amount of time) than actually wielding it effectively.

Expedience is king. I ing hate it.

If you cant understand why I am pissed, then you never will. Politics should not be playing a part in any of this. This crisis is the difference between prosperity and poverty for an entire nation and I am more than a little surprised that you would accept so easily the reality of politics being more important than both and being slightly miffed that I dont share that sentiment.

Just wait. When reality overtakes politics, we'll have more company. A lot more.

A real leader...a great leader of all time would sacrifice himself for the welfare of his country. If Obama were different, than he would have no objections to political suicide if it benefitted the country longterm...

The man who puts his country before himself. But first he has to realize the fate of his country is at hazard. The forces of denial are strong.

Political power and will have zero to do with the obvious solutions we have to the problem.

Agreed. And this is the closest you come to saying something hopeful in your post, if I've understood you right.

Focusing on political power diverts attention from the power we all have to change our own lives. In the end, this will be more decisive than anything our government does.

Those two terms only benefit the powerful in their endeavors to maintain control of leadership in a crisis, not their respective cons uencies. What does it say about our country, its health and well-being, when our elected leadership's biggest job in a financial meltdown is power consolidation?

That we are governed by moral midgets.

Then lay down the real ing plan of economin attack that truly addresses the underlying issues of our financial instability. Namely, en lement programs and military spending.

That'd be a nice start, but the catalyzing event hasn't happened yet.

I realize my expectations are high and that my gloom and doom are more negative than most.

Your perspective seems realistic enough to me, DR.

Thats ludicrous. And I cant believe someone would disagree with that right now. This is difficult.

It's like people can't see what's happening in plain view. Maybe they're just not focused on it yet. Denial is strong. Stronger than reality, at least for a little while.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

The great Jeff Porcaro made a great statement in one of his videos. It applied to music, but honestly it applies to everything in life. He said "You can't polish a turd". There's a lot of polishing going on. I thought Obama said he was going to be honest and upfront with us. , he's already scared consumers with his Great Depression comparison. That's about as stupid as W's "go and shop" statement. Hmmph. I'm waiting for him to stop campaigning.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh - and I completely dispute the notion that any solutions to our current predicament are either obvious or easy.

[MannyIsGod]

The great Jeff Porcaro made a great statement in one of his videos. It applied to music, but honestly it applies to everything in life. He said "You can't polish a turd". There's a lot of polishing going on. I thought Obama said he was going to be honest and upfront with us. , he's already scared consumers with his Great Depression comparison. That's about as stupid as W's "go and shop" statement. Hmmph. I'm waiting for him to stop campaigning.

Its like talking to a wall with some of you. The notion that Obama's statement has any measurable impact on this economic situation is pretty laughable but you provide an excellent example of the partisan bull being thrown around.

Thanks for that, I guess.

[Winehole23]

I thought Obama said he was going to be honest and upfront with us. , he's already scared consumers with his Great Depression comparison. That's about as stupid as W's "go and shop" statement .

Let's revisit this comment in one year and see how well it stood up.

[DarkReign]

DR, political power/will is what it is. Trying to make it an externality in a democracy is impossible. I see a lot of ing over the system of government in your post but I'm not aware of a democracy which doesn't function in this way. Don't take this the wrong way, but your line of thinking has tended to pave the road torwards other forms of government in the past including facism. You can't seprate politics from national leadership becaustion national leadership is a political function.

No, I dont take it the wrong way. I never would. Youre not an asshole and you dont make it habit of name-calling, therefore, I always take your posts for what they say at face value.

But...

While I understand your point, it doesnt make it right. I can see where fascism starts and ends with my line of thinking...true.

But...

I have no tolerance for that. My point is/was, great leaders, no matter the time, place, or situation, would fall on their sword for their men in a heartbeat if it guaranteed glory and victory.

Translation: In a democracy, sometimes it it necessary for leadership to commit politicial suicide for the better of the country.

No one has done that in a looooong time because there havent been many opportunities to do so. This is an opportunity.

Lincoln signed the Emancipation Proclomation thereby sending this country to out and out civil war! Could you imagine what that decision felt like?! I cant. But this...this I guarantee.

Lincoln never once thought about re-election before or after it was signed. He thought about the welfare of the Union and that alone.

[RandomGuy]

It's a bit simplistic to suggest there are no adverse consequences for inflating our way out of the mess. Leaving currency collapse completely aside, hyperinflation kills the purchasing power of the US consumer, and China has already asked for guarantees on its Treasurys. Inflate too much, and it's the functional equivalent of default for our creditors and penury for the American people. Don't think they'll all stand idly by and just let it happen.

There's a lot of mischief foreign and domestic that we'd face if we go down this road

Yup. China has partly pegged its currency to ours, and this may finally make that too expensive for them to maintain. Not exactly a bad thing. IMO.

[DarkReign]

Oh - and I completely dispute the notion that any solutions to our current predicament are either obvious or easy.

I disagree. It is easy in the sense that the problems are obvious.

What makes it extremely difficult is the personal and professional sacrifice that is required by elected leadership in unison.

So it isnt so much the iden y of our problem thats difficult, but the dearth of leadership in the face of said problem.

[RandomGuy]

The , [Obama]'s already scared consumers with his Great Depression comparison. That's about as stupid as W's "go and shop" statement. Hmmph. I'm waiting for him to stop campaigning.

So you would rather the president be some sort of Polyanna?

If things really are that bad, wouldn't you rather have a president who talked to us like we were grow-ups?

Seems to me that you want a cheerleader who says things are great no matter how bad they really are.

We tried that, and things got bad anyways.

I personally would rather have someone who was at least willing to assume that I am intelligent enough to know that it isn't raining when someone is pissing on my shoes...

[DarkReign]

I personally would rather have someone who was at least willing to assume that I am intelligent enough to know that it isn't raining when someone is pissing on my shoes...

I have never heard that expression before....

Consider it stolen by me.

[Winehole23]

Lincoln never once thought about re-election before or after it was signed. He thought about the welfare of the Union and that alone.

If I may, a historical quibble: if Lincoln hadn't won the election in 1864, McClellan would have made peace with the South. To be sure, McClellan was a pro-war candidate running on a peace platform, and reunion was a precondition of peace. Abolition however was not.

The Republicans slandered the Democrats as being Copperheads and traitors, patronage machines were cranked up in New York and Pennsylvania where the election turned out to be very close, and absentee returns from the Union army came in 70% for Lincoln.

While I agree in a broad way with your characterization of Lincoln's mettle and personal courage, what he did had an inextricable -- and indispensable -- political element. To wield power, you have to have it in the first place,

[DarkReign]

If I may, a historical quibble: if Lincoln hadn't won the election in 1864, McClellan would have made peace with the South. To be sure, McClellan was a pro-war candidate running on a peace platform, and reunion was a precondition of peace. Abolition however was not.

The Republicans slandered the Democrats as being Copperheads and traitors, patronage machines were cranked up in New York and Pennsylvania where the election turned out to be very close, and absentee returns from the Union army came in 70% for Lincoln.

While I agree in a broad way with your characterization of Lincoln's mettle and personal courage, what he did had an inextricable -- and indispensable -- political element. To wield power, you have to have it in the first place,

Very interesting. I appreciate the history behind my assertion.

But I dont think this particular parable pertains. You speak of pre-election fervor and tactics (dirty at that).

We sit post-election and Obama has alllllllll the political will and power he can handle right now...maybe just short of Bush Jr post 9/11.

Obama doesnt have anyone's ass to kiss right now (politician or public), theyre lips are firmly planted in his crack as we speak....for now at least. Point is, Obama has the power today, right now. What he chooses to do with it is of utmost importance.