AL East 2K9

[AFBlue]

Alright baseball fans, Spring Training is upon us and a new season is not far behind. With that said, there is plenty of intrigue for this year and a lot of it resides in one divison...the AL East.

Getting away from the A-roid story, I think there's still plenty to talk about in this division. For starters, the $425M worth of new contracts the Yankees doled out to bring in arguably the top LHP, a top-5 1B, and another big-name pitcher. The big question there...how much does it help them, can they get back to the playoffs?

I could go next to the Red Sox and talk about new acquisitions Smoltz, Penny, and Baldelli ...but I'm a Rays fan, so I'll leave that to Sux fans. The Jays and Orioles either stood pat or lost ground, so that leaves one team left to discuss.

The Tampa Bay Rays...

[AFBlue]

The reigning AL East division and league champions return the majority of their key players (see: Shields, Kaz, Garza, Upton, Longoria, Crawford, etc.), and even have a few new ones....most notably Pat "the Bat" Burrell, recently of the World Series champion Phillies.

For the Phils he occupied LF, but I would be surprised if he logged more than 20 games in the field over the two years he'll be in Tampa. He brings another power bat to the right side of the plate and helps to balance out the lineup. He'll slot in as their everyday DH, hit 30 bombs and walk 100 times.

The Rays also traded for RF Matt Joyce, a Tigers prospect. Joyce hit 12HRs in 200 PAs, but this season will be less about him and more about what the trade means that brought him here. The outgoing player from the Rays was Edwin Jackson, a true power pitcher who has a load of talent but hasn't found consistency. It was certainly a risk to let Jackson go, but that trade opened the door for prospect David Price, another power pitcher (though Lefty) who has "ace" potential. Price may spend a month or two in AAA, but expect him to get the call early in '09 and be a staple of the Rays rotation for the next half-decade at least.

Some of their smaller, but perhaps no less important acquisitions were Joe Nelson, Brian Shouse, and Gabe Kapler. All three either increased depth or replaced a loss from last season.

The biggest impact might be felt with the players already on the team...

Upton spent much of the year dealing with a torn labrum that sapped him of much of his power. He had surgery in the off-season to repair it, so you might see a return to '07 HR totals and maybe an MVP discussion.

Longoria started the year in AAA and had a wrist fracture that limited his plate appearances in '08. He still managed to run away with ROY honors while smacking 27HRs and playing above average defense at 3B. With a full season (fingers crossed) the Rays may have another player in the MVP talk.

Finally....Crawford. He dealt with a myriad of injuries and posted the worst numbers of his career. The other day when asked how he felt he said simply "I feel fast again". Crawford's speed, though just one aspect of his game, should feed the others. So, there's a possibility CCs numbers rebound.

Of course, I'm incredibly biased so this makes the Rays sound like the clear favorites for a World Series le, when the fact is that they'll have a tough time getting out of the AL East with a playoff spot.

Still, I think they've got the talent and added enough pieces to make it back to the Series...and maybe win it all this time.

[AFBlue]

Anyone have any division previews or predictions of their own?

[djohn14]

I never type that much, so please respond.

[K-State Spur]

While even most fans don't realize it, the O's can make an argument for having the best line-up in the division.

2b - Roberts
3b - Mora
rf - Markakis
1b - Huff
dh - Scott
c - Wieters
cf - Jones
lf - Pie
ss - Izturis

That's a group that rivals any in the division - including the Yanks & Rays.

The problem is that the pitching staff is still a mess after Guthrie and all of the top prospects are still at least a full year away. The good news is that the back of the bullpen is pretty good with Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson.

If Wieters is as good as advertised and the starting pitching staff is even mediocre - they could win 85 games and challenge whichever one of the big 3 disappoints for 3rd.

Most likely they have another year of growth, win 75 games, and finish last. The only difference is that they'll have a little bit of optimism heading into 2010.

[djohn14]

While even most fans don't realize it, the O's can make an argument for having the best line-up in the division.

2b - Roberts
3b - Mora
rf - Markakis
1b - Huff
dh - Scott
c - Wieters
cf - Jones
lf - Pie
ss - Izturis

That's a group that rivals any in the division - including the Yanks & Rays.

The problem is that the pitching staff is still a mess after Guthrie and all of the top prospects are still at least a full year away. The good news is that the back of the bullpen is pretty good with Sherrill, Ray, and Johnson.

If Wieters is as good as advertised and the starting pitching staff is even mediocre - they could win 85 games and challenge whichever one of the big 3 disappoints for 3rd.

Most likely they have another year of growth, win 75 games, and finish last. The only difference is that they'll have a little bit of optimism heading into 2010.

I wouldnt say its as good as the Yankees, Rays, or Sox lineups, but it is certainly good enough, and can keep up with them.

[K-State Spur]

I wouldnt say its as good as the Yankees, Rays, or Sox lineups, but it is certainly good enough, and can keep up with them.

It actually should be better than the BoSox this year (the Red Sox line-up is overrated, there are really only 5 above average hitters in that order) - they've just got an incredible pitching staff with depth.

Birds actually scored more runs than the Rays last year. The Rays actually only have 4 above average hitters - and 2 of those guys (Crawford & Upton) are coming off sub-par offensive seasons.

The Yanks & O's were about equal offensively last year. The Yanks did add Teixiera, but Jeter/Matsui/Damon/Posada are all getting a bit long in the tooth. They also lost Abreu, who is an underrated offensive player.

Meanwhile, Baltimore adds the top prospect in all of baseball with Wieters. Adam Jones is beginning his second full year. As odd as it is to say, Izturis offers a HUGE offensive upgrade for them at SS vs. what they had last year. Markakis is quietly establishing himself as one of the best OFs in the American league. Huff's coming off a year where he was better than Papi (seriously, look it up). And Brian Roberts just keeps chugging along.

It would be ridiculous to say that this team will compete for the division le. But it's very reasonable to think that they could score 830 runs, which could easily lead the division (only the Red Sox scored 800+ runs last year, and they should see a decline from about half their lineup).

It really just depends on whether Wieters is able to hit the ground running, how Scott adjusts to being a DH, and whether or not Pie can regain what made him one of the top prospects in baseball (for the Cubs) only 2 years ago.


...of course, given the modern history of the Orioles, betting against them would probably be wise!

[djohn14]

Im just saying Pie, and Izturis wont give you much if anything on offense...but they will more than make up for it on D. Huff did have a better year than Papi...but I wouldnt count on it again lol. But yes, the O's are very talented.

[K-State Spur]

Yeah, Izturis isn't much of a bat, but this is a team that posted a .585 OPS from their shortstops last year. He's an upgrade just the same. Anyhow, outside of Jeter (who will be 35** next year), there really isn't a great offensive SS in the division.

Pie is a wildcard. He's flat out dominated AAA (at a young age) in the past, but has yet to translate any of that to the pros.

I don't know if I'd say they were too talented - they're still the worst team in the division. But they'll score.


** Damn, I feel old.

[AFBlue]

K-State makes a good case for the Orioles...

Markakis, Roberts, and Huff are all underrated as players. I think they also added Ty Wigginton on the cheap, and he's also in the "underrated" category. Pie and Jones are young, in age as well as a general feel for the game, but the talent is there. Personally, I look for Wieters to run away with ROY...he's got all the tools and unlike the other "young guys" he's ready to step out against the highest compe ion right now.

The Orioles have even improved on defense with the athletic outfielders and Izturis coming on board. But...

The problem with the Orioles, already mentioned, is their pitching staff. Sherrill is a good closer, but if the starters can't keep it close through 7 the Birds will have a tough time winning games.

One final note...I totally agree with K-State about how overrated the BoSox lineup is. The key for them is staying healthy...and with players like Beckett, Lowell, Ortiz, Drew, Baldelli, etc. there's got to be some doubt they can get there and stay there.

My two cents on the Birds and Sox.

[AFBlue]

One more thing...I'm not sure the Orioles will finish last, because I can't see where the Blue Jays did anything to strengthen their position in the division.

[K-State Spur]

I think the Blue Jays got weaker for sure.

But they already had a decent club, including a 1 & 2 at the front of their rotation that can compete with anybody in baseball.

[AFBlue]

I never did offer my prediction...

AL East Champs: Yankees
AL Wildcard: Rays

And I think it will go down to the wire between the Rays and Boston...but my bias won't allow me to concede the Rays missing the playoffs when they made it all the way to the Series and have arguably upgraded in several areas.

[bostonguy]

I have a feeling the drays will have a down year. The world series hangover loss will be on of the bigger reasons why. That just isnt something that is simple to overcome. It will be Yanks and Red Sox battling for the division with 2nd place getting the wildcard.

[K-State Spur]

I have a feeling the drays will have a down year. The world series hangover loss will be on of the bigger reasons why. That just isnt something that is simple to overcome. It will be Yanks and Red Sox battling for the division with 2nd place getting the wildcard.

it's easier to overcome when you're that young. plus, forget most of the players having down years - most of their guys haven't even hit their prime yet. (although, there could be some drop-off in the rotation.)

this isn't the same situation as the Rockies playing above themselves for a 6 week stretch in 2007, then coming back down to earth in 2008. the D-Rays players were all expected to be that good...just not this quickly.

[florige]

Our only problem (O's) is we are short at depth at position players. We have crap loads of outfielders, and some good young pitching talent in the minors. But when it comes to the infield outside of Weiters, we are pretty thin I think.

[AFBlue]

I have a feeling the drays will have a down year. The world series hangover loss will be on of the bigger reasons why. That just isnt something that is simple to overcome. It will be Yanks and Red Sox battling for the division with 2nd place getting the wildcard.

I think the potential is there for the Rays to be even better, for reasons already stated, but agree that the mental aspect will be their toughest challenge to overcome.

I mean, they dealt last year with the youth and injury....now they're older, healthier, and deeper. If they can keep it together mentally they have a chance to repeat as AL East champs, but it'll be interesting to see how they handle the pressure of higher expectations.