I'm far more confident in the Heat beating Cleveland in a 7 game series than Orlando. I'd guarantee anything that a Cavs/Heat playoff series would end with the Heat winning in 6 games.
Mo Williams has choked in damn near every big game they've played this year. And when Mo Williams isn't taking pressure off LeBron, nobody else on that team is. And if LeBron takes over and goes for 50 every night.....it means nothing because the Heat have a guy who can match him point for point.
Also, any team that gives untalented bags like Pavlovic & Varejao significant playing time has some very very obvious weaknesses on their team. Pavlovic & Varejao suck so bad that they couldn't even get playing time on the Mavericks.